My medium term Bitcoin bear thesis – and why this winter could be the shortest yet

For all the speak that this cycle is by some means “completely different,” the construction of Bitcoin’s market nonetheless seems unmistakably cyclical to me.

Each high brings the identical refrain claiming the cycle model is dead, and every cooling part renews the concept that liquidity alone now units the trajectory. But the proof retains pointing the different manner.

Bears might be getting shorter, cadence might be compressing, and new all-time highs might hold creeping earlier in every epoch, yet the underlying rhythm hasn’t disappeared.

My core bear market thesis

My working view is straightforward: the subsequent true bear-market backside will nonetheless be the lowest print of the cycle, and that print possible isn’t in yet.

As the final cycle bottomed in 2023 and the halving delivered an all-time high forward of schedule, a compressed downturn into 2026 suits each historic patterns and current dynamics.

In reality, the present rollover could simply evolve into a quick, sharp decline that briefly overshoots to the draw back, exhausts sellers, and units the stage for an additional climb towards a brand new high forward of the following halving.

In that state of affairs, a panic-driven slide towards the high-$40,000s turns into the level the place the tape lastly breaks, and the place the purchaser base modifications character.

Sub-$50k is the place sovereign steadiness sheets, establishments, and ultra-high-net-worth allocators who “missed” the final transfer are most probably to YOLO in dimension.

That demand is structural. It’s the set of actors who now view Bitcoin not as a commerce, however as strategic stock.

The actual fragility lies elsewhere: in the safety funds.

With inscriptions fading and fee revenue collapsing again towards pre-hype ranges, miners have needed to pivot into AI and HPC internet hosting simply to take care of money stream.

That stabilizes their companies however creates new elasticity in hashrate, particularly at value lows, and leaves the community leaning extra closely on issuance at the actual second issuance is stepping down.

The short-term result’s a market extra delicate to miner conduct, extra uncovered to dips in payment share, and extra susceptible to sharp mechanical selloffs when hashprice compresses.

All of this retains the cyclical lens intact: shorter bears, sharper flooring, and a path the place the subsequent true backside, whether or not early 2026 or simply forward of the 2027 window, is outlined by miner economics, payment tendencies, and the level at which deep-pocketed patrons rush to safe provide.

BTC Bear-Market Scenarios (Base/Soft-Landing/Deep Cut)

So, no matter what copium-fueled influencers say, Bitcoin nonetheless trades in cycles, and the subsequent downcycle is more likely to hinge on security-budget math, miner conduct, and institutional stream elasticity.

Let’s dig deeper into the information.

If charges don’t rebuild a sturdy flooring as issuance steps down, and if miners lean on AI and HPC internet hosting to stabilize money stream, hashrate turns into extra value delicate at the lows.

That combine can stress hashprice, stress marginal operators, and produce mechanically pushed legs that print a flooring close to $49,000 in early 2026, then hand off to a slower restoration into 2027 and 2028.

The structural bid is actual, however it may possibly blink when volatility rises, and macro tightens at the margin.

Scenario	Bottom Price (USD)	Timing Window	Path Shape	Key Triggers Into Low	What Flips the Recovery
Base	49,000	Q1–Q2 2026	2–3 sharp legs decrease, basing	Hashprice forwards sub-$40 PH/s/day for weeks; payment% of miner income < 10%; 20D ETF flows unfavorable	Miner capitulation clears; ETF flows flip constructive sub-$50k
Soft-landing	56,000–60,000	H2 2025	Single flush, vary	Fee% > 15% sustained; steady hashrate; combined to constructive ETF flows on down days	L2 settlement charges rise; inscriptions exercise returns; regular ETF internet buys
Deep reduce	36,000–42,000	Late 2026–Q1 2027	Waterfall, quick	Macro risk-off; payment drought; miner misery; persistent ETF outflows	Policy/liquidity pivot; sovereign or ETF massive prints

The deep reduce bottoms at one in every of the strongest value factors and liquidity ranges at $36,700, denoted by the inexperienced stable line on the chart under.

So, whereas I consider in the Bitcoin cycle, ETF flows, and miner income will decide how low we go.

Bitcoin’s largest ETF, BlackRock’s IBIT, posted a file one-day outflow of about $523 million on Nov. 19, 2025, as the spot value rolled over. That is a clear instance of stream elasticity in the new regime.

Rolling sums throughout the U.S. spot ETF set seize the same behavior in aggregate, with home windows of internet outflows constructing as costs grind decrease.

For miner income, the payment flooring that emerged throughout inscriptions has now light.

Last yr’s ordinals exercise drove payment income to intervals the place it rivaled the block subsidy, often surpassing it, however transaction demand cooled, and payment share retreated.

According to Bitcoin Magazine’s fee versus rewards collection and miner revenue charts, payment contributions have been materially decrease than the 2024 spikes.

Mempool payment fee percentiles additionally present median payment charges nicely under final yr’s peaks.

A weak payment share retains the safety funds leaning on issuance, which falls predictably, so the burden shifts to cost and hashprice to maintain miner economics intact.

Miner conduct can also be altering as public operators broaden into AI and HPC internet hosting.

This introduces twin income streams that stabilize enterprise fashions, yet it may possibly additionally make hashrate extra elastic at value lows.

If internet hosting money stream covers fastened prices, miners can downshift hash when BTC margins compress with out speedy misery, which tightens community safety at the margin throughout dips and can deepen value sensitivity.

TeraWulf signed two 10-year AI internet hosting agreements backed by Google with multibillion-dollar income potential, and different miners are actioning similar pivots.

The timeline of those contracts is beneficial context for the hash provide elasticity argument.

Hashprice stays the easy lens for miner margins.

Luxor’s Hashrate Index exhibits spot and ahead collection which have hovered close to the decrease band into late 2025, in line with tighter situations.

If ahead hashprice holds at depressed ranges whereas payment share stays subdued, the chance of miner steadiness sheet stress rises, and capitulation-style provide can seem in concentrated home windows.

The path from there tends to characteristic two or three quick legs decrease, a base, then an accumulation part that absorbs miner and leveraged provide as perpetual funding and foundation reset.

The $49,000 base case is a cyclical name, not a macro forecast.

The timing aligns with my cycle stance and the statement that bears have been getting shorter.

The 2024 pre-halving all-time high compressed the cadence versus 2020–21, but it surely didn’t finish cycles.

The line to observe is the confluence of three collection

1. Fee share of miner income on a 7-day foundation that fails to maintain above 10–15% for weeks.
2. Hashprice printing new cycle lows and holding there lengthy sufficient to stress weaker operators.
3. 20-day cumulative ETF flows turning unfavorable as value declines, which demonstrates stream elasticity breaking down at the margin.

When these align, the chance of a pointy print rises.

The restoration aspect of the name rests on plumbing and on stock.

ETFs, custody, and OTC rails now transfer actual dimension with fewer frictions than in prior cycles, and that helps convert headline dip demand into executed stream.

The purchaser listing at $49,000 consists of ETFs rebalancing towards goal weights, UHNW mandates including core publicity, and sovereign or sovereign-adjacent steadiness sheets that deal with sub-$50,000 as strategic.

A price-elastic response from these channels is the sensible distinction between a drawn-out malaise and a sooner climb again to realized cap growth and more healthy breadth.

Counterpoints deserve house.

Layer 2 settlement could construct a sturdy payment flooring in this epoch, which might elevate the safety funds and reasonable hashprice stress.

If payment share rises and holds above the teenagers whereas ETF flows flip constructive on down days, the bear could resolve earlier and shallower than the base case.

The AI and HPC pivot may be framed as supportive of community safety in the medium term, because it retains miners solvent and capable of put money into capability and energy contracts.

That case ought to be weighed in opposition to the near-term impact of elastic hashrate at the lows, which is the place sharp prints sometimes happen.

The Power-law framing additionally provides the cycle lens a basis with out overfitting.

On log scale, Bitcoin’s long-run trajectory behaves like an natural system with useful resource constraints, the place vitality, hashrate, issuance, and a payment market outline the friction round pattern.

Deviations above and under that band happen when security-budget variables and stream variables pull in the identical path.

The current setup seems like a traditional below-band tour threat if charges stay delicate and stream elasticity weakens.

Flip-Levels To Watch

Indicator	Bear-Print Risk ↑	Recovery Bias ↑	Primary Source
Spot ETF flows (20D cumulative)	< 0 whereas value falls	> 0 on down days (dip shopping for)	Farside Investors
Fee% of miner income (7D)	< 10% for a number of weeks	> 15% sustained	Bitcoin Magazine Pro
Hashprice (USD/TH/day; spot/forwards)	New cycle lows persisting	Stabilization then larger lows	Hashrate Index
Feerates (median sat/vB)	Flat/declining throughout volatility	Rising regardless of sideways value	mempool.space
Network hashrate/issue	Falling hashrate into weak spot	Stable hashrate by drawdown	Blockchain.com

If these situations maintain, a $49,000 print in early 2026 suits the cycle, the miner economics, and the manner pipes now take up dips.

If charges rebuild and flows stabilize sooner, the low can set larger.

The commerce is watching payment share, hashprice, and ETF flows at the identical time, then letting the tape decide the path.

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