Nasdaq Up 10x More Than Bitcoin This Year — But Wintermute Calls BTC the Real Bullish Play

The Nasdaq has surged 21.86% to date in 2025, almost ten instances Bitcoin’s 2.96% achieve, however crypto market maker Wintermute believes the tables may quickly flip in favor of BTC.

The Nasdaq-100, a tech-heavy inventory index monitoring giants like Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA, has far outperformed Bitcoin in 2025 as danger urge for food concentrated in equities.

According to Wintermute, Bitcoin’s underperformance and heightened sensitivity to inventory market losses aren’t indicators of weak spot, however fairly indicators of a maturing backside formation.

Negative Bitcoin-Nasdaq Asymmetry Signals Bottom, Not Breakdown

The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 stays high, round 0.8, however Bitcoin’s conduct this 12 months is way from typical.

“BTC solely appears to maneuver in sync when it hurts,” Wintermute advised traders in a latest market report, highlighting how Bitcoin falls sharply on fairness sell-offs however barely rises when the Nasdaq positive aspects.

The group measures this by way of efficiency skew, displaying how a lot tougher Bitcoin falls on Nasdaq down days than it rises on up days.

Currently, that skew is firmly unfavorable. “Bitcoin nonetheless trades like a high-beta reflection of danger sentiment, however solely when it’s painful,” Wintermute says.

This asymmetry is slowly compressing over time, reflecting Bitcoin’s evolution as a macro asset, but the ache hole stays elevated.

On a 365-day rolling foundation, the unfavorable skew is the highest since late 2022, a couple of 12 months after Bitcoin peaked throughout the earlier bear market.

Wintermute notes, “Negative asymmetry of this scale normally seems when sentiment is washed out, and traditionally, it has been a precursor to cost restoration.”

The causes behind Bitcoin lagging Nasdaq by virtually 10X are each behavioral and structural.

Wintermute factors to a shift in market consideration. “Mindshare has moved to equities,” they clarify

Korean retail is all buying and selling Equities.

Crypto provides worst danger reward phrases pic.twitter.com/aFFIt1DacH

— Immutable Edge (@ImmutableSOL) November 13, 2025

AI Hype Steals Bitcoin Thunder, But Liquidity Tells Real Story

For a lot of 2025, the pleasure that when drove crypto token launches, infrastructure upgrades, and retail participation has gravitated towards mega-cap tech, particularly AI.

This incremental danger urge for food has flowed into the Nasdaq fairly than digital property, leaving Bitcoin to behave as a high-beta tail of macro danger.

At the similar time, crypto’s liquidity profile is extra fragile than in earlier cycles.

“Stablecoin issuance has plateaued, ETF inflows have slowed, and market depth throughout exchanges hasn’t recovered to early-2024 ranges,” Wintermute factors out.

This fragility amplifies unfavorable reactions when equities appropriate, conserving BTC’s draw back participation mechanically greater than its upside.

Wintermute emphasizes that “Historically, this type of unfavorable asymmetry doesn’t seem close to tops however fairly reveals up close to bottoms. When BTC falls tougher on dangerous fairness days than it rises on good ones, it normally indicators exhaustion, not energy.”

Analysts Converge On BTC Bottom Between $98K-$104k

Despite lagging behind the Nasdaq this 12 months, Bitcoin has held up remarkably effectively, buying and selling less than 20% off its all-time highs, suggesting that the market’s underlying well being is robust.

This aligns with evaluation shared by Cryptonews yesterday that seven years’ value of loss of life cross information reveals Bitcoin is near hitting a structural backside that would see it shoot to $145K.

Crypto analyst DaanCrypto observed a big liquidity cluster under the native lows at $98K-$100K, which needs to be taken out quickly.

According to his evaluation, there’s a neighborhood resistance space at ~$108K and If damaged, Bitcoin can get again into the bull zone round $112K.

Farzam Ehsani, Co-founder and CEO of VALR, advised Cryptonews that Bitcoin holding above $110,000 is important for it to finish the 12 months on a powerful observe.

According to him, “A decisive reclaim of this vary may mark the starting of a brand new upside market cycle and open the door for BTC to retest its earlier highs and even head greater in direction of $130,000 earlier than year-end, particularly if ETF inflows choose up once more.”

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