New Analysis Challenges Bitcoin’s Core Investment Narrative
Bitcoin’s acquainted post-halving value story is dealing with a critical rethink after strategist and researcher Shanaka Anslem Perera printed a prolonged evaluation earlier within the week, arguing that each earlier post-halving rally lined up with large world liquidity shifts quite than the programmed discount of recent cash.
Perera contended that the connection between halvings and value appreciation is “statistically unprovable” regardless of sixteen years of knowledge.
His takeaway is blunt: liquidity, not issuance cuts, has doubtless guided each main bull section, and traders could also be mistaking correlation for causation.
A Liquidity Story Hiding Inside a Halving Narrative
The substance of Perera’s argument rests on one distinction: whereas the halving mechanism that reduces issuance is predictable and baked into Bitcoin’s code, linking it to cost jumps has no statistical basis.
“The halving mechanism is mathematically verifiable to close certainty. The causal relationship between halvings and value is statistically unprovable,” he wrote.
His report reviewed Bitcoin knowledge via December 2025 and earlier liquidity episodes, noting that the primary 4 halvings coincided with the Cyprus banking shock in 2013, lingering post-crisis cash growth in 2016, and historic pandemic-era financial injections after 2020.
Further, the analyst highlighted how the 2024 value peak occurred earlier than the April halving, undermining the traditional view that the occasion itself triggered that bull run.
Instead, institutional inflows through newly authorized spot Bitcoin ETFs seem as a extra believable catalyst, matching with Perera’s view that Bitcoin now behaves much less like a fixed-supply commodity and extra like a high-beta macro asset.
The creator additionally pointed to a extensively circulated September 2024 research from analyst Lyn Alden, which calculated a 0.94 statistical relationship between Bitcoin and Global M2 cash provide going again to 2013. He warned, nonetheless, {that a} high diploma of affiliation just isn’t proof of a driving mechanism, arguing that rigorous econometric scrutiny of those trending variables remains to be missing.
He additionally famous that Bitcoin tends to rise in periods of increasing credit score and fall sharply when liquidity tightens. According to him, instance of such an occasion was the August 2024 yen carry commerce unwind, when a fast shift in Japanese charges hammered threat property and despatched Bitcoin tumbling.
Post-Halving Gains Are Shrinking While Institutions Accumulate
What stands out throughout latest market commentary is that, at the same time as new highs stored coming in 2025, the scale of every post-halving rally seems to be fading. Recent analysis by CoinGecko discovered that the 2017 cycle returned 29x, whereas the 2025 run has been a lot smaller, though nonetheless optimistic.
Despite the dip, corporations have continued to ramp up shopping for, with market chief Strategy acquiring one other 10,624 BTC this week, bringing its holdings to over 660,000 BTC.
Meanwhile, regulatory shifts might form future liquidity greater than block rewards. Japan’s newly unveiled crypto framework may finally channel sizable family wealth into Bitcoin via ETFs and institutional funds if parliament approves forthcoming rule modifications.
Together, these developments feed Perera’s wider argument: the halving nonetheless defines Bitcoin’s shortage schedule, however markets could also be pushed way more by world cash circumstances than provide cuts alone.
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