New Bitcoin ‘top signal’ is in – The bear market indicator you hate to see
Are crypto IPOs probably the most correct prime sign, or only a inform traders preserve retesting as a result of it feels true throughout late-cycle warmth?
The tape provides a clear cluster to look at. Coinbase’s direct listing arrived on April 14, 2021, the exact day Bitcoin set a then report close to $64,000.
Stronghold Digital Mining priced its IPO on Oct. 19–20, 2021, about three weeks earlier than Bitcoin’s Nov. 10 peak close to $68,789.
This cycle, Bullish’s Aug. 13, 2025 debut and Figure’s Sept. 10, 2025 pricing landed inside eight and 4 weeks of Bitcoin’s Oct. 6 all-time high close to $126,198.
Grayscale’s public IPO submitting on Nov. 13, 2025 adopted the highest by slightly over a month, including a late entry to the identical window.
There is a well-known rhythm in play. During robust crypto advances, the trail to public markets tends to open for exchanges, brokers, miners, and asset managers, typically when volumes, charges, and media consideration crest.
Crypto bull market IPOs
Coinbase in 2021 turned the shorthand for prime timing as a result of the calendar lined up to the day. Stronghold’s placement got here close to the final word cycle high that November after the market paused in May via July.
In 2025, Bullish and Figure queued up in August and September, with Bitcoin finishing the transfer in early October. The sequence neither proves a rule nor provides a clock; it offers portfolio managers a clear anchor for late-cycle monitoring as a result of the dates are fastened, the filings reveal enterprise combine, and the offers embody e book high quality particulars.
The cluster helps body danger urge for food in actual time. Bullish’s August debut drew heavy first-day buying and selling and a valuation close to the highest of its vary.
Figure priced at $25, in accordance to the corporate, whereas Bitcoin’s October print set the cycle high throughout majors.
Then the tone shifted from itemizing to submitting, with Grayscale exhibiting $318.7 million in income and $203.3 million in web revenue for the primary 9 months of 2025 and acknowledging price stress in its public paperwork.
Gemini’s S-1 turned public in mid-August, earlier than the October high, which provides to the late-cycle crowding of exchange-centric exercise.
Calculating the bull market IPO sign
A easy method to observe the sample is to measure days from every itemizing to the cycle prime. The 2021 and 2025 home windows fall right into a bracket that feels tradeable, roughly T minus 60 days to T plus 30 days, the place T is the all-time high.
Coinbase hit T0, Stronghold close to T minus 22, Bullish close to T minus 54, Figure close to T minus 26, and Grayscale’s submitting close to T plus 38. That cadence seems to be much less like coincidence and extra like a funding market timing choice, the place groups favor up-tape home windows for valuation, whereas traders discover that liquidity with out an open-ended development path can coincide with distribution throughout the secondary market.
Below is a concise desk of the anchor dates to calibrate that window.
| Company | Ticker | Listing date | Cycle ATH anchor | Days from ATH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase | COIN | Apr 14, 2021 | BTC ATH, Apr 14, 2021 | 0 |
| Stronghold Digital Mining | SDIG | Oct 19–20, 2021 | BTC ATH, Nov 10, 2021 | ~22 earlier than |
| Bullish | BLSH | Aug 13, 2025 | BTC ATH, Oct 6, 2025 | ~54 earlier than |
| Figure Technology Solutions | FIGR | Sep 10, 2025 | BTC ATH, Oct 6, 2025 | ~26 earlier than |
| Grayscale (public IPO submitting) | — | Nov 13, 2025 | BTC ATH, Oct 6, 2025 | ~38 after |
Late-cycle readings don’t rule out contemporary highs. Spot bitcoin ETFs, accepted in 2024, constructed new structural demand that may clean the standard post-listing fade.
That plumbing issues for flow-through into exchanges, miners, and asset managers. Even so, the general public market’s position as a clearing mechanism tends to reassert itself.
When charges compress and top-line income drifts from peak prints, as Grayscale’s submitting outlines, valuation self-discipline turns into seen in the order e book and in how shortly the pipeline costs.
Balancing the tape
Who lists additionally issues. Exchange listings have been the cleanest timing markers, which matches enterprise fashions that profit when turnover peaks.
Miners have a blended report, with many arriving after tops in 2021–22. There are additionally counterexamples.
Canaan’s November 2019 IPO landed nearer to a bear-market ground, a reminder that macro, product cycle, and firm specifics can overwhelm seasonal timing.
The subsequent few checkpoints are easy. Watch whether or not Gemini’s roadshow cadence and pricing converge or drift.
Track how Grayscale’s valuation clears relative to price stress and the combination of retail versus institutional demand.
Keep an eye fixed on Kraken’s 2026 posture as a real-time learn on whether or not the window reopens after any consolidation.
If the thesis wants one sentence, it is this: Crypto IPOs don’t name tops by decree. They cluster close to the top of robust runs as a result of that is when the market pays probably the most for flow-through earnings, and this cycle adopted the identical script.
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