New Report: Prediction Markets’ Growth Driven by Non-Sports Engagement

Contrary to perceptions that prediction markets are merely sports activities betting in disguise, a brand new report claims that year-to-date mixture progress throughout the 2 primary platforms within the U.S. is being led by non-sports classes.

Findings in Prediction Markets: The Next Frontier of Financial Markets, printed by Keyrock and Dune, paint an image of the way forward for prediction markets.

The report monitored the interval from January 2024 to November 2025. Over that interval, Polymarket processed 95 million whole trades, whereas Kalshi recorded 74 million. Whereas sports activities accounted for about 85% of Kalshi’s notional quantity, Polymarket had a extra evenly distributed array of exchanges, with sports activities (39%), politics (34%), and crypto (18%) collectively driving greater than 90% of its notional quantity exercise,” per the report.

At first, it seems as if sports activities are the center of prediction market volume. But the report says sports activities’ fixed exercise (when ISN’T there a recreation occurring?) will guarantee it stays the “move engine” of prediction markets, whereas politics and economics will turn out to be its “capital engine.”

The report notes how Kalshi has functioned as a U.S.-regulated trade underneath the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In distinction, Polymarket spent years not working within the U.S., after the CFTC accused it of working with no license (Polymarket acquired QCX LLX and QC Clearing early in 2025, permitting it a regulatory foothold out there; it beta-launched its new platform in mid-November, per Yahoo Finance).

Political markets are the bread and butter

The political markets, particularly exchanges about President Donald Trump, led sports activities in open curiosity, with politics outpacing sports activities by greater than 400%.

Kalshi was capable of join with sports activities followers within the U.S., whereas Polymarket appealed to customers who “worth onchain anonymity and are inquisitive about politics.” And sports activities merchants “are inclined to wager smaller quantities” at a extra frequent fee, which the report claims “naturally inflates volumes.” Whereas politics-focused merchants take part much less usually, as there are fewer political occasions, however once they do, their positions are a lot bigger.

“On Kalshi, Politics, Elections, and Economics mixed maintain 2.5x the open curiosity of Sports, whereas on Polymarket, Politics outpaced Sports by 400% in 2025,” claims the report.

The report additionally notes that customers throughout Kalshi and Polymarket engaged extra with non-sports classes over the previous 12 months. The Economics class grew 905% to $112 million in mixed month-to-month notional volumes, whereas the Tech & Science classes rose 1637% to $123 million.

Politics stays the most important prediction-market class, and whereas its notional quantity YTD is just up 43%, that also quantities to $1.2 billion. That 2025 was an off-year for U.S. politics might clarify the slower progress fee in comparison with the opposite classes. Still, the report says the info counsel politics shall be a “cyclical driver” for prediction markets sooner or later.

This isn’t to say that there is no such thing as a room for sports activities within the prediction market. Polymarket turned the official prediction market associate of the UFC by means of a multi-year settlement with TKO Group. The report additionally famous that Underdog integrated Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CNDA)-powered sports activities markets alongside its fantasy and wagering merchandise, marking the primary time a significant sports activities gaming operator included prediction markets into its core expertise.

Ultimately, prediction markets are not sportsbooks. “On any given day, extra resting capital sits in main classes outdoors of sports activities,” reads the report, “which makes the underlying consumer base look very totally different from what a sportsbook mannequin would counsel.”

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