NFL Win Totals 2026: What Prediction Markets Say About All 32 Teams
The 2026 NFL season seems to be ultra-competitive on paper. Prediction markets assist make sense of the hierarchy, providing win totals for all 32 groups.
A workforce’s value gives a present snapshot of expectations for this season. For instance, the Los Angeles Rams are buying and selling at 69¢ to win at the very least 12 video games at Kalshi. That win benchmark compares favorably to final yr’s 12-win efficiency in the course of the 2025 common season.
Which groups look poised to leap ahead in 2026? Which squads could possibly be on the decline? Below, we break down the win totals for all 32 groups.
NFL win totals prediction market odds for 2026
The desk under contains NFL win totals odds from Kalshi for each NFL workforce. We’re utilizing the win whole threshold at present priced closest to 50% because the baseline, giving us one constant benchmark per workforce. The +/- column compares the win threshold with the workforce’s 2025 file.
| Team | 2026 Kalshi baseline | 2025 file | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 4 Wins (Yes, 58%) | 3-14 | +1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7 Wins (Yes, 52%) | 8-9 | -1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11 Wins (Yes, 57%) | 8-9 | +3 |
| Buffalo Bills | 11 Wins (Yes, 55%) | 12-5 | -1 |
| Carolina Panthers | 8 Wins (Yes, 45%) | 8-9 | Even |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 11 Wins (Yes, 48%) | 6-11 | +5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 6 Wins (Yes, 45%) | 5-12 | -1 |
| Chicago Bears | 10 Wins (Yes, 45%) | 11-6 | -1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10 Wins (Yes, 57%) | 7-9-1 | +3 |
| Denver Broncos | 10 Wins (Yes, 54%) | 14-3 | -4 |
| Detroit Lions | 11 Wins, (58%) | 9-8 | +2 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10 Wins (54%) | 9-7-1 | +1 |
| Houston Texans | 11 Wins (49%) | 12-5 | -1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8 Wins (59%) | 8-8 | Even |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 10 Wins (49%) | 13-4 | -3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11 Wins (46%) | 6-11 | +5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6 Wins (55%) | 3-14 | +3 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 11 Wins (45%) | 11-6 | Even |
| Los Angeles Rams | 12 Wins (60%) | 12-5 | Even |
| Miami Dolphins | 4 Wins (53%) | 7-10 | -3 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9 Wins (57%) | 9-8 | Even |
| New England Patriots | 11 Wins (46%) | 14-3 | -3 |
| New Orleans Saints | 8 Wins (52%) | 6-11 | +2 |
| New York Giants | 8 Wins (47%) | 4-13 | +4 |
| New York Jets | 6 Wins (49%) | 3-14 | +3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11 Wins (49%) | 11-6 | Even |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 Wins (49%) | 10-7 | +1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10 Wins (59%) | 12-5 | +2 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 11 Wins (56%) | 14-3 | -3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9 Wins (50%) | 8-9 | +1 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6 Wins (56%) | 3-14 | +3 |
| Washington Commanders | 7 Wins (49%) | 5-12 | +2 |
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Season win totals can replicate which groups are priced for giant enhancements and declines. The Tennessee Titans recorded simply three wins final season, however Kalshi at present affords 55¢ on the Titans to win six video games this season. Many analysts assume Tennessee could possibly be one of many NFL’s most improved groups.
The Seahawks went 14-3 a season in the past en path to successful the Super Bowl. Kalshi affords Seattle at 56¢ to win simply 11 video games. That suggests a potential dip in efficiency this season.
The Chiefs and Bengals have the most important +/- metric at +5. Quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow return from damage, respectively, for the Chiefs and Bengals.
At the opposite finish of the spectrum, the Broncos have the bottom +/- metric at -4. Notably, the Seahawks and Patriots share the identical -3 metric after competing in Super Bowl XL.
How NFL win totals work at prediction markets
It’s essential to know how NFL win totals work at prediction markets earlier than buying and selling on them.
Teams may have completely different win thresholds out there to commerce on. Think of it as a tiered system based mostly on 8+, 9+, and 10+ wins, for instance. Each threshold has its personal contract value and implied chance.
Rather than being restricted to the benchmark closest to 50% referenced above, merchants are free to decide on between a number of thresholds.
Prices can fluctuate as buying and selling exercise and workforce expectations change. Be positive to observe key accidents, particularly on the quarterback place, all through the season.
Yes/No contracts on NFL season win totals are priced between 1¢ and 99¢, with these numbers reflecting the implied chance of successful the commerce. Winning contracts at all times settle at $1, and dropping contracts settle at $0.
For instance, let’s say you purchase a Yes contract for 60¢ and it wins. You’ll obtain $1 again, which features a revenue of 40¢ per contract. Prediction markets additionally provide the means to commerce out of a place earlier than it resolves.
It’s essential to do not forget that the edge closest to 50% is getting used right here as an editorial baseline for comparability, not as a prediction printed by Kalshi.
Let’s use the Dallas Cowboys for instance. Here are win whole costs at Kalshi:
| Cowboys Season Win Total | Price (Odds) |
|---|---|
| 10 | 57% (-133) |
| 11 | 43% (+133) |
| 12 | 30% (+233) |
The odds get progressively longer with extra wins. If you’re bullish on the Cowboys going 12-5 this season, you could have the choice to commerce on 12 wins at +233 odds, which might greater than double your cash.
There is simply a 30% implied chance of that taking place, however you’ll be rewarded for buying and selling at this threshold if Dallas information a dozen wins this season.
The Cowboys are coming off consecutive 7-win seasons, however they might have rewarded merchants three straight years previous to that. Here are the workforce’s information for the previous 5 seasons:
2025: 7–9–1
2024: 7–10–0
2023: 12–5–0
2022: 12–5–0
2021: 12–5–0
In addition to Kalshi, season win totals are additionally out there on different platforms, together with Polymarket, Gemini, FanDuel Predicts, and OG.
You might discover that win totals are offered otherwise by numerous prediction markets. For instance, Polymarket’s US site makes use of 9.5+ wins as a substitute of the ten that Kalshi lists.
NFL groups anticipated to make the largest leap in 2026
The Chiefs, Bengals, and Giants have the most important constructive variations between their 2025 win totals and their present 2026 benchmarks.
Kansas City Chiefs (+5)
Kansas City sputtered to a 6-11 end final yr after QB Patrick Mahomes went down with ACL and MCL tears in December. The Chiefs are anticipated to revert to kind with a projection of 11 wins. At an implied chance of 46%, Kansas City’s odds of reaching 11 wins are +117.
The +5 differential is tied for the very best YoY with Cincinnati. The return of Mahomes is the only greatest consider Kansas City’s anticipated resurgence. Future Hall of Fame TE Travis Kelce additionally returned for his 14th season.
A notable offseason addition was operating again Kenneth Walker III, Super Bowl XL MVP, coming over from Seattle.
The Chiefs received 9 consecutive AFC West titles earlier than lacking the playoffs final yr. For all the explanations above, there are heightened expectations for Kansas City given its present pricing.
Cincinnati Bengals (+5)
Cincinnati additionally struggled final season after quarterback Joe Burrow went down with a turf toe damage in mid-September. The Bengals additionally completed with a 6-11 file.
With Burrow again, Cincinnati is projected to win 11 video games, producing a +5 differential that matches Kansas City, listed at 48% implied chance.
The Bengals have probably the most explosive extensive receiver duos within the NFL. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins mixed for greater than 2,200 receiving yards and 19 TD catches final season. Running again Chase Brown, who retains defenses trustworthy and opens up the passing sport for Burrow, amassed greater than 1,000 speeding yards and 11 TDs final season.
New defensive deal with Dexter Lawrence is predicted to bolster the protection after anchoring the Giants’ D-Line for the final seven seasons.
Cincinnati also needs to profit from enjoying the league’s third-easiest schedule.
New York Giants (+4)
New York completed within the NFC East basement final season at 4-13. Projected to win eight video games, the Giants have a +4 differential this season with an implied chance of 47%.
New York welcomed new head coach John Harbaugh, a perennial winner with the Baltimore Ravens for nearly twenty years. Franchise quarterback Jaxson Dart, WR1 Malik Nabers, and lead operating again Cam Skattebo are the largest contributors on offense. The protection options two younger studs in edge rusher Abdul Carter and defensive lineman Darius Alexander.
Under Harbaugh’s management, New York has hope for the primary time in a very long time. That’s in line with its present pricing at prediction markets, together with Kalshi.
NFL groups dealing with the largest drop in 2026
The Broncos enter the 2026 NFL season with the most important destructive distinction at -4. The Seahawks and Patriots observe at -3 after showing within the Super Bowl.
Denver Broncos (-4)
The Broncos received the AFC West with a 14-3 file. They have a projection of 10 wins this season, with a 54% implied chance of reaching that mark.
Some regression is predicted this season after Denver went 9-2 in video games determined by seven factors or much less final yr. The Broncos additionally play in a troublesome AFC West, with a pair of video games in opposition to the Chiefs and Chargers on the regular-season schedule.
QB Bo Nix has a brand new extensive receiver to throw to in Jaylen Waddle, who marked the largest offseason acquisition after coming over from Miami. The protection stays strong, however it skews older. Patrick Surtain remains to be one of many NFL’s high performers within the secondary.
Denver has the Eleventh-toughest schedule to take care of, because it tries to file double-digit wins this season.
Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Seattle reached the highest of the soccer world by successful Super Bowl XL. The Seahawks went 14-3 in the course of the common season. They enter the brand new season with an implied chance of 56% of successful 11 video games.
Will Seattle expertise a Super Bowl hangover? The offense nonetheless options QB Sam Darnold and all-world WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He led the NFL in receiving yards with 1,739 final season.
There are questions within the backfield, nonetheless, after lead RB Kenneth Walker III left for Kansas City. Walker’s backup, Zach Charbonnet, enters the season nonetheless recovering from a torn ACL suffered in the course of the playoffs final season. He will miss at the very least the primary 4 video games of the season.
Last yr, the Eagles entered the season as defending Super Bowl champions and completed 11-6 earlier than bowing out early within the playoffs. Kalshi’s present pricing of Seattle portends a drop in efficiency.
New England Patriots (-3)
New England additionally completed 14-3 en path to successful the AFC East final season. The Patriots are projected to win 11 video games, with a 46% implied chance of doing so.
The Patriots endured a tough offseason. Head coach Mike Vrabel was enveloped in a scandal after information of a relationship with The Athletic’s Dianna Russini broke. Both are married to different folks. QB Drake Maye publicly mentioned that it received’t be a distraction, however that is still to be seen.
New England additionally benefited from enjoying a really comfortable schedule final season. The Pats face the Sixth-toughest schedule this season, together with non-conference street matchups in opposition to the Seahawks, Chiefs, and Chargers.
What different NFL futures markets are telling us
When you evaluate and distinction win totals with different NFL futures at prediction markets, there are some clear connections to be made.
The Los Angeles Rams have the very best win whole at 12 video games. The Rams are additionally the favourite to win Super Bowl XLI at Kalshi, with an implied chance of 16%. As you’d anticipate, Los Angeles can be favored to win the NFC, listed at 25%.
The Bills are one in every of seven AFC groups projected to win 11 video games. There’s a correlation with Buffalo’s odds of successful the AFC Championship. The Bills are the favourite in that Kalshi market with an implied chance of 15%.
The Dolphins and Jets are projected to win 4 and 6 video games, respectively. Those low expectations are mirrored within the AFC Championship market on each groups. Miami and New York each have a 1% implied chance of successful the convention title this season.
The publish NFL Win Totals 2026: What Prediction Markets Say About All 32 Teams appeared first on DeFi Rate.
