Norway Probes Potential Insider Trading Scandal Sparked by Suspicious Polymarket Bets: Report
Norwegian officers are investigating a doable data leak associated to betting exercise on Polymarket, following on-line wagers that appropriately predicted the winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize hours earlier than the official announcement.
According to Bloomberg, the Norwegian Nobel Institute has confirmed that it’s inspecting whether or not confidential details about the prize recipient, Venezuelan opposition chief María Corina Machado, was leaked forward of the general public announcement.
“We’re wanting into it,” stated Erik Aasheim, spokesperson for the Nobel Institute, following experiences first printed by Aftenposten and Finansavisen.
Officials Investigate Nobel Prize Information Leak Linked to Polymarket Trading
The investigation was prompted after buying and selling knowledge on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform constructed on the Polygon blockchain, showed a sudden surge in bets favoring Machado roughly 11 hours earlier than the Nobel Committee’s announcement in Oslo.
Machado was in the end awarded the prize on Friday morning for her efforts to revive democracy in Venezuela.
At round midnight Norwegian time, Polymarket customers started closely shopping for contracts for Machado at simply $0.08, sending the worth hovering to $1.00 by the time of the announcement, a greater than 1,000% acquire.
Three accounts that primarily guess on Machado reportedly earned a mixed revenue of about $90,000, in keeping with Finansavisen.
Local media reports point out that the five-member Nobel Committee had finalized its resolution on Monday, with Machado being notified shortly earlier than the announcement.
The timing of the surge in Polymarket exercise has led officers to query whether or not details about the winner could have been leaked from throughout the committee or its shut community of advisers.
Polymarket, recognized for permitting customers to commerce on real-world outcomes utilizing stablecoins corresponding to USDC, has change into a fast-growing venue for crowdsourced prediction knowledge.
The platform typically attracts merchants who analyze public clues, social media exercise, and institutional conduct to anticipate occasions earlier than they’re formally confirmed.
In this case, the Nobel Peace Prize market, which allowed customers to purchase and promote shares of potential winners, grew to become a focus of hypothesis.
Trump didn’t win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, however 4 sensible Polymarket merchants did win, taking residence $100K betting on Machado.
The worth began pumping 11 hours earlier than the official announcement when these accounts started shopping for huge
($52.503,15 Profit) https://t.co/3wBj9KkEvt… pic.twitter.com/pchloXNghB
— PredictFolio (@PredictFolio) October 10, 2025
Hours earlier than the Nobel Committee made its public announcement, Machado’s contract worth started climbing sharply, whereas odds for different candidates remained flat. The incident exhibits each the facility and danger of open data markets.
While such platforms combination public sentiment and knowledge effectively, additionally they elevate questions on insider data when buying and selling exercise seems to outpace official disclosures.
Norwegian authorities haven’t commented on whether or not any formal monetary investigation will observe, however officers throughout the Nobel Institute acknowledged the necessity to evaluate the integrity of the prize course of.
The case marks one of many first recognized cases wherein a blockchain-based prediction market has probably uncovered a leak inside a serious worldwide establishment.
Analysts observe that though no main media shops reported on Machado’s win earlier than the announcement, the Polymarket knowledge had already priced it in.
Polymarket Eyes U.S. Relaunch With $205M Raise as Kalshi Dominates Market
Amidst the allegation, Polymarket has raised a combined $205 million across two previously undisclosed funding rounds between 2024 and 2025, in keeping with CEO Shayne Coplan.
The investments have lifted the corporate’s valuation to $1.2 billion, marking its transition from a DeFi startup to a serious participant within the prediction market area.
The first spherical, in 2024, secured $55 million led by Blockchain Capital at a $350 million valuation. A 12 months later, Founders Fund led a $150 million Series B with participation from Ribbit Capital, Valor, Point72 Ventures, SV Angel, 1confirmation, Coinbase, and Dragonfly.
Polymarket’s complete funding now stands at roughly $279 million, excluding a brand new partnership with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the mum or dad firm of the New York Stock Exchange, which plans to take a position as much as $2 billion.
Polymarket is preparing to relaunch in the United States after buying QCX LLC for $112 million, a transfer that granted it a Designated Contract Market license.
The CFTC just lately issued a no-action letter clearing the best way for buying and selling to renew, following the agency’s 2022 settlement and $1.4 million positive for working with out registration.
Despite earlier restrictions, Polymarket continued to develop abroad, processing greater than $6 billion in trades through the first half of 2025. Its resurgence comes as rival platform Kalshi surged ahead, reportedly surpassing $50 billion in annual buying and selling quantity and capturing over 60% of the worldwide prediction market share, in keeping with Dune Analytics.
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