November Preview: Will Bitcoin Break The Cycle Or Repeat It?

A extensively shared seasonality snapshot is making the rounds forward of month-end: a Coinglass warmth map of Bitcoin’s month-to-month returns, reposted by dealer Daan Crypto Trades. The desk spans 2013–2025 and reveals November because the statistical outlier in Bitcoin’s calendar—each for eye-popping positive factors and for sharp drawdowns in sure years.

Bitcoin November Preview

“November is Bitcoin’s finest month primarily based on historic efficiency. By far,” Daan wrote on X, pointing to a median November change of +46.02% throughout the dataset. That determine is visibly distorted by November 2013’s +449.35% surge, the only largest month-to-month transfer on the board. He added: “The common acquire over all these months is +46.02%. But that is closely skewed by a single month-to-month acquire in November 2013. Bitcoin went up +449.35%!! that month.”

The uncooked counts again up the status with out the hyperbole. Out of the 12 Novembers listed (2013–2024), 8 completed inexperienced—2013 (+449.35%), 2014 (+12.82%), 2015 (+19.27%), 2016 (+5.42%), 2017 (+53.48%), 2020 (+42.95%), 2023 (+8.81%), and 2024 (+37.29%)—whereas 4 had been damaging—2018 (-36.57%), 2019 (-17.27%), 2021 (-7.11%), and 2022 (-16.23%).

The median November change sits at +10.82%, a extra conservative central tendency that dampens the 2013 impact. Excluding 2013 solely, the straightforward common for November drops to roughly +9.35% throughout the remaining 11 years, underscoring how one month can skew mean-based seasonality.

Context from the broader desk issues. November’s common is the very best of any month on Coinglass’s grid, forward of October’s +20.30% common, whereas December reveals a much more combined profile with a +4.75% common however a -3.22% median—an imbalance in step with outlier-driven months.

September, lengthy maligned by merchants, retains a damaging common (-3.08%) over the complete interval. The 2024 row itself captures the push-and-pull of this cycle’s narrative: double-digit positive factors in February, March, May, October, and November, offset by significant drawdowns in April, June, and August, and a damaging December print to shut the yr (-2.85%).

Lessons From Prior Cycles

Daan’s framing extends past easy seasonality. “November & December is when the 2013, 2017 & 2021 cycles topped out. It’s additionally the place the 2018 & 2022 cycles bottomed out,” he famous. That commentary strains up with the historic inflection factors most market individuals bear in mind: the late-2013 mania and subsequent crash, the December 2017 peak, the November 2021 all-time high, and the December 2018 and November 2022 washouts.

The Coinglass grid can not timestamp intramonth highs or lows, however the clustering of main pivots into the ultimate two months of the yr is in step with the market’s folklore and with the returns sample that reveals each exceptionally robust up months and among the cycle’s most punishing down months on this window.

The sensible takeaway—once more in Daan’s phrases—will not be categorical bullishness, however regime threat: “All in all, an eventful final 2 months of the yr usually talking. Whether it’s on the bullish or bearish facet, volatility and massive market pivots have been the theme into the top of the yr.” The warmth map helps that characterization.

November’s distribution spans the widest extremes on report—from +449.35% on the high to -36.57% on the draw back—with a two-thirds hit price for inexperienced months and a median acquire within the low double digits. December, against this, has produced each cycle tops and cycle bottoms regardless of a modest common, a reminder that common and median statistics can obscure the trail threat that defines Bitcoin’s fourth quarter.

Seasonality will not be future, and the pattern is proscribed. Still, the data-backed message is evident: as November approaches, Bitcoin’s historical pattern has been much less about quiet pattern continuation and extra about variance—the type that has marked each euphoric blow-offs and capitulation lows.

At press time, BTC traded at $114,487.