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NYSE Owner Eyes Massive $2B Stake in Polymarket; Is a $10B Valuation Imminent?

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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the guardian firm of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), is reportedly in superior talks to accumulate a $2 billion stake in Polymarket, a fast-growing crypto-based prediction platform.

According to a Wall Street Journal report citing individuals accustomed to the matter, the deal could possibly be introduced as quickly as Tuesday, probably valuing Polymarket between $8 billion and $10 billion.

Shares of ICE climbed greater than 4% in pre-market buying and selling following the information, as traders reacted to what may mark the corporate’s first vital push into the crypto and prediction market sectors.

The transfer signifies ICE’s deepening curiosity in blockchain-powered monetary applied sciences that bridge conventional markets with decentralized knowledge prediction fashions.

Founded in Manhattan, New York, Polymarket allows customers to commerce on real-world outcomes spanning politics, economics, climate occasions, and world affairs. The platform has quickly grown in affect amid rising demand for on-chain occasion forecasting instruments, which mix market dynamics with crowd-sourced intelligence.

From Thiel to Trump Jr.: Strategic Moves Fuel Polymarket’s $10B Valuation

​Polymarket’s potential $10 billion valuation would symbolize a tenfold improve from simply a few months in the past. In June 2025, Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund led a $200 million funding round, valuing the agency at $1 billion.

​Since then, Polymarket has attracted main backers, together with Donald Trump Jr., who joined its advisory board in August following his agency 1789 Capital’s multimillion-dollar funding.

​The growth comes on the heels of regulatory clearance, following the Department of Justice (DOJ) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) closing investigations into the agency in July, paving the best way for a full-scale U.S. reentry.

​Polymarket has additionally introduced a collaboration with Elon Musk’s X platform, integrating its markets with xAI’s Grok chatbot for real-time predictive analytics.

​In September, the company rolled out a 4% annualized yield feature on choose long-term geopolitical and political markets, together with wagers on the 2028 U.S. presidential election and management outcomes in nations equivalent to Russia, China, and Israel.

Polymarket’s U.S. Return Stalls as Government Shutdown Freezes CFTC Operations

Polymarket’s long-awaited relaunch in the United States has hit an sudden roadblock, as the continuing authorities shutdown halts key regulatory capabilities on the CFTC.

While the prediction market platform appeared poised to reenter the U.S. by means of its acquisition of QCEX, a designated contract market (DCM), the timing now appears more and more unsure.

The shutdown, which started on October 1, has successfully frozen the CFTC’s self-certification course of, a vital step for DCMs to launch new contracts.

Historically, the fee has suspended all self-certifications throughout authorities shutdowns, pending the restoration of regular operations. This precedent dates again to earlier shutdowns in 2013, 2018, and 2019, with the longest enduring 35 days.

Self-certification allows DCMs to inform the CFTC of their plans to record new contracts, equivalent to prediction markets for political occasions or sports activities outcomes. If the fee doesn’t intervene, the product might proceed to market with out formal “approval.”

However, in apply, the CFTC has paused all such processes throughout shutdowns, leaving exchanges like Polymarket and Kalshi unable to launch new choices.

While present coverage suggests Polymarket should wait till the federal government resumes full operations, Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham may change course.

As the fee’s solely present member, Pham wields appreciable discretion and has beforehand expressed disagreement with halting self-certifications throughout shutdowns.

Still, the company’s restricted capability poses a problem. The CFTC has furloughed over 94% of its workforce, leaving simply 31 of 543 workers on responsibility. The regulator’s public filings portal has proven no exercise since September 30, and no new self-certifications have been processed since then.

QCEX, the Polymarket-owned DCM, reportedly submitted filings for 4 new market varieties, protecting sports activities winners, totals, and level spreads, on October 1. However, none have appeared on the CFTC’s public portal, suggesting they continue to be unprocessed.

For Polymarket, the timing is important. Every day with out U.S. entry offers rival Kalshi more room to consolidate its market share because the nation’s main regulated prediction market.

Polymarket’s U.S. comeback has been years in the making. In November 2024, the agency confronted a Department of Justice investigation for allegedly serving U.S. customers with out CFTC registration. The FBI reportedly raided founder Shayne Coplan’s residence through the probe.

The investigation was dropped in July 2025, and in September, Coplan mentioned on X that Polymarket had obtained the “inexperienced gentle” from the CFTC to launch, following exemptions from minor reporting necessities. Yet, with the federal government shutdown paralyzing the regulator, that momentum might now stall indefinitely.

Polymarket’s personal prediction markets mirror rising skepticism, presently assigning a 70% probability that the shutdown will persist until October 15 or later. Until then, Polymarket’s long-anticipated American relaunch stays on maintain.

The put up NYSE Owner Eyes Massive $2B Stake in Polymarket; Is a $10B Valuation Imminent? appeared first on Cryptonews.

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