On-chain moves don’t tell the full story: Why OG Bitcoin whales may not be cashing out
“OG Bitcoin whales are dumping,” is the overarching narrative surrounding the newest Bitcoin selloff. Yet, amid nonstop chatter that Bitcoin’s earliest supporters are behind its newest worth slide, on-chain analyst Willy Woo factors to “nuance” in the metrics. On-chain moves don’t tell the full story; the old-guard may not be caving in simply but.
Are OG Bitcoin whales cashing out? The narrative
Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments printed a chart portray 2025 as a “very colourful” yr for whale exercise, with a string of $100 million and $500 million Bitcoin spends traced from addresses untouched for greater than seven years. He concluded:
“OG Bitcoin whales are dumping.”
Over 1 million BTC have moved since June, dramatically outpacing prior cycles and handing analysts the easy conclusion that whales are cashing out. Alex Krüger highlighted how this sample marks a break from earlier market cycles. Whale promoting has been regular for practically 12 months, contributing to Bitcoin’s underperformance towards different danger belongings. He acknowledged:
“Chart reveals OG Bitcoin whales have been dumping continuous since November 2024.”
Horizon’s Joe Consorti chimed in, posting:
“OG bitcoin whales are dumping and sentiment is horrible.”
He famous how a lot the market has modified as Bitcoin’s early advocates are giving solution to TradFi giants like JPMorgan, and “99.5% of funds in the spot bitcoin ETFs haven’t bought on this 20% drawdown”
ETF traders: The “boomers” who didn’t flinch
And whereas insiders seem to be fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, Eric Balchunas, factors out that the “boomer” Bitcoin ETF consumers are holding sturdy. Bitcoin ETFs have seen lower than $1 billion in outflows, at the same time as spot Bitcoin fell 20%. He questioned:
“So who’s been promoting? To quote that horror film, “ma’am, the name is coming from inside the home”
The ‘nuance’ beneath OG Bitcoin whales’ moves
Yet amid the supposed avalanche of OG promoting, Willy Woo, extensively revered for on-chain analytics, cautions towards studying each motion of historical cash as dumping. His evaluation factors out three key issues typically misinterpreted as gross sales however which may don’t have anything to do with price-driven liquidation:
- Address Upgrades: Many OG holders are shifting cash from legacy addresses to Taproot addresses, searching for quantum safety (not liquidating for money).
- Custody Rotations: Coins may be shifted to institutional custody (e.g., with Sygnum Bank) for higher protection against physical theft and wrench attacks, or posted as collateral to borrow towards, with no sale required.
- Treasury Participation: Some “OG” cash are being moved into fairness wrappers or treasury firms, permitting holders to leverage, borrow, or optimize their holdings with out triggering a taxable sale.
Woo factors out that on-chain knowledge solely reveals cash “shifting,” not the real-world intent behind the transaction. So whereas headline charts level to OG Bitcoin whales “dumping,” the resilience of worth beneath this large motion highlights market absorption and deeper causes than simply whales cashing out.
Data from Capriole, Bloomberg, and prime merchants all affirm heavy OG exercise, however ETF outflows stay minimal, and the worth, whereas pressured, absorbed greater than 1 million BTC in gross sales with far much less carnage than previous cycles. Not all historical coin motion is dumping, so take note of on-chain nuance relatively than the rumors. What you see may not be what you get.
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