ONDO’s Silent Accumulation: Whales Absorb The 1.94B Unlock While Price Bleeds

ONDO has misplaced over 65% of its worth since October as heavy promoting strain continues to dominate the altcoin market. While Bitcoin has proven relative stability at key ranges, many mid-cap tokens like ONDO have struggled to seek out constant demand. This drawdown has pushed sentiment towards the bearish aspect, particularly as merchants stay cautious round liquidity occasions and token unlocks.

Still, some analysts argue that the present dip is just not purely an indication of weak point. A CryptoQuant report explains that the headlines could scream “value drop,” however the on-chain information is pointing towards “alternative” as a substitute. The focus is now on ONDO’s large 1.94 billion token unlock scheduled for January 18, 2026. Historically, unlocks can set off panic promoting, as buyers anticipate larger circulating provide and extra distribution strain.

However, this time could also be completely different. The report means that bigger market individuals are actively positioning by the decline, utilizing the concern as a liquidity window. Rather than treating the unlock as a cause to exit, the information hints that “sensible cash” is stepping in to soak up provide whereas retail confidence stays fragile. That units the stage for a crucial check.

Smart Money Absorption Signals Are Building

The CryptoQuant report outlines why bigger buyers seem like ignoring the noise round ONDO’s decline. The first sign is the “whale protect.” Despite the sharp correction because the December 2024 peak, Spot Average Order Size continues to be dominated by “Big Whale Orders,” proven by constant inexperienced dots on the chart. This implies establishments are utilizing weak point to soak up liquidity, with the $0.35–$0.40 zone appearing as a major accumulation vary.

Second, ONDO has formally entered a Taker Buy Dominant part. The 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) stays optimistic and continues rising, displaying that market purchase strain has outweighed market sells for months. This is essential as a result of takers symbolize aggressive individuals who purchase on the ask with out ready for higher entries.

The report frames this alignment as “taker alpha.” When giant whale orders and aggressive taker shopping for strengthen whereas the value falls, it usually displays absorption. If this continues by the unlock, ONDO may very well be constructing a coiled-spring setup for a 2026 RWA breakout.

ONDO Extends Downtrend as Bulls Defend Key Demand Zone

ONDO stays beneath heavy strain after a chronic decline that has erased most of its 2025 upside. The 3-day chart reveals a transparent breakdown from the previous consolidation vary close to $0.90–$1.00, the place value repeatedly did not reclaim momentum through the second half of the 12 months. Once sellers compelled a decisive transfer decrease, the market rapidly transitioned right into a steep downtrend marked by weak bounces and constant decrease highs.

At the time of writing, ONDO is buying and selling close to $0.33 after slipping under the $0.40 deal with, a psychological degree that beforehand acted as momentary assist. This drop locations the token deep under its key transferring averages, with the shorter development strains rolling over and appearing as overhead resistance. The failed restoration makes an attempt all through late 2025 affirm that sellers have stayed in management, whereas consumers have struggled to generate sufficient quantity to shift the development.

However, value is now approaching a possible demand zone round $0.30–$0.35, the place volatility traditionally will increase and dip consumers could attempt to step in. If this space fails, the chart suggests draw back might speed up. Still, a powerful protection might open the door for a stabilization part earlier than any significant rebound.

Featured picture from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com