Only An Asteroid Can Sink MSTR’s Bitcoin Bet, CryptoQuant CEO Says
CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju pushed again on a renewed wave of compelled Bitcoin liquidation and chapter chatter round Strategy (previously MicroStrategy, MSTR), arguing that the bearish thesis misreads the corporate’s capital construction and shareholder incentives.
In a Nov. 20, 2025 post on X, Ju wrote, “MSTR solely goes bankrupt if an asteroid hits Earth,” including that critics ought to “carry a single piece of proof” earlier than claiming Michael Saylor could be liquidated. The feedback got here as Bitcoin and high-beta crypto proxies retraced into late November, reviving legacy narratives that Strategy’s debt stack may compel BTC gross sales.
Why Strategy Will Never Sell Bitcoin
Ju’s central declare is that Strategy will not be structurally arrange like a margin dealer. Addressing the commonest concern—that convertible notes “lacking” their conversion value forces liquidation—he acknowledged: “Convertible debt not reaching the conversion value will not be liquidation. It merely means the notes get repaid in money […] Failing to transform will not be a chapter set off. It is simply regular debt maturity.”
In his view, the reimbursement pathways are standard company finance instruments: refinancing, rolling into new notes, secured borrowing, or working money movement. That framing aligns with how convertibles perform in apply; if fairness is under strike at maturity, the embedded choice expires and the instrument reverts to straight debt relatively than a forced-sale occasion.
He additionally grounded his argument in governance and identification. “Saylor would by no means promote Bitcoin until shareholders need it,” Ju wrote, warning that “promoting even a single BTC would destroy MSTR’s identification as a Bitcoin treasury firm and set off a dying spiral for each Bitcoin and MSTR.” Strategy has repeatedly outlined itself as a BTC-treasury car, and its shareholder base largely purchased into that mandate, making voluntary divestment politically and strategically inconceivable absent a radical shift in investor choice.
Balance-sheet information underpins Ju’s confidence. Strategy reported 640,808 BTC as of Oct. 30, 2025, acquired for about $47.44 billion; subsequent filings cited main November additions taking holdings to roughly 649,870 BTC. Even after accounting for the rising convertible and most well-liked layers, the BTC treasury stays the dominant asset, which means solvency stress would require an excessive, extended Bitcoin collapse relatively than a cyclical drawdown.
Ju didn’t declare the fairness is risk-free. “This doesn’t imply MSTR’s inventory value will at all times keep high,” he wrote, however referred to as the concept that Strategy would promote BTC to assist the inventory or face imminent chapter “fully absurd.”
He added that even at a price of $10,000 per coin, Strategy would face “a debt restructuring, nothing extra.” On most well-liked shares, he acknowledged dividend obligations, noting funds haven’t been missed and might be coated through new share issuance—dilutive, however not a liquidation vector. Posting BTC as collateral, he stated, could be a final resort as a result of that will introduce actual margin danger.
In quick, Ju’s rebuttal attracts a tough line between volatility and insolvency: Strategy could commerce like leveraged Bitcoin, however its liabilities don’t mechanically pressure BTC gross sales. The “Saylor liquidation” narrative, he argues, is a Twitter delusion until the world ends—by asteroid.
At press time, BTC traded at $82,050.
