Opinion Hits $8B in Monthly Prediction Market Volume — But the Data Raises Questions
On the floor, Opinion Lab’s upstart onchain prediction market is a historic development story and an unlikely candidate to rival Kalshi and Polymarket for high trade standing. But it raises an apparent query: Is Opinion’s development actual?
The BNB Chain-native prediction market launched its mainnet on Oct. 23, 2025, cracked $1 billion in weekly quantity inside a month, and by December was posting extra notional quantity than both Kalshi or Polymarket. In January, Opinion.Trade generated $8.08 billion in month-to-month notional quantity — roughly 31% of the whole tracked prediction markets {industry}’s output. A Hong Kong-based startup, backed by Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao‘s enterprise arm, had outpaced two well-funded, years-old exchanges inside weeks of going dwell. It’s the quickest platform ascent in prediction market historical past.
But there’s one other story in the similar knowledge. Throughout Opinion’s run, a set of persistent anomalies have separated it from each different prediction market platform we track: commerce sizes 13–25x bigger than rivals, a consumer base that swings 6x in a matter of weeks, and a volume-per-user determine that doubled as the platform scaled, the reverse of what natural development sometimes produces. We dug into the knowledge from Dune to discover what’s behind Opinion’s speedy ascent, and what to make of it.
Who’s behind Opinion Labs?
Before entering into the numbers, let’s have a look at the context round what Opinion is and the place it got here from, as the platform’s backing and regulatory positioning form how its quantity figures ought to be interpreted.
Opinion Labs was founded in 2023 in Hong Kong by Forrest Liu, a Columbia University graduate and former company finance affiliate at CMB International Capital (China Merchants Bank’s funding banking arm). A co-founder referenced as “KJ” seems in Messari’s December protection as an skilled in blockchain infrastructure, however there’s no public final identify or background obtainable. Beyond these two, the staff is essentially unidentified. CoinLaunch’s project analysis flagged that “there’s restricted details about core staff members obtainable.” There’s additionally no public staff web page on the Opinion web site.
That’s commonplace in crypto. Bitcoin itself was created pseudonymously, and main DeFi protocols run with nameless groups. But it does distinguish Opinion from the platforms it’s competing with for top-3 standing. Kalshi’s management — CEO Tarek Mansour and COO Luana Lopes Lara — is extensively public and has testified earlier than Congress. Polymarket’s Shayne Coplan has been profiled by the New York Times and appeared at the DealBook summit. For a platform dealing with billions in month-to-month quantity and backed by $25 million in enterprise funding, the data hole is price noting.
The extra important a part of the backstory is the cash behind it.
Who is bankrolling Opinion prediction trade?
YZi Labs (previously Binance Labs), CZ’s private enterprise arm, led Opinion’s $5 million seed round in March 2025 alongside Animoca Ventures, Amber Group, Manifold Trading, and Echo. The platform launched solely on BNB Chain, making it the flagship prediction marketplace for CZ’s blockchain. CZ confirmed the stake in a now-deleted X publish, per crypto.news: “We are only a minority investor, however we attempt to assist with including strategic worth.”
In February 2026, Opinion raised an extra $20 million in a pre-Series A led by Hack VC and Jump Crypto, reportedly at a valuation above $500 million.
But Opinion isn’t CZ’s solely prediction market play. predict.enjoyable, additionally on BNB Chain and in addition YZi-backed, was based by a former Binance worker and introduced by CZ on X in December 2025. Also now tracked by Dune, predict.enjoyable posted $571 million in notional quantity in January. CZ’s Trust Wallet (220 million customers) added prediction buying and selling options in partnership with Polymarket, Kalshi and Myriad. YZi’s $1 billion Builder Fund targets DeFi and AI initiatives on BNB Chain. And crypto observers have drawn parallels to Aster DEX, one other YZi-backed undertaking that scaled quickly on BNB Chain to rival Hyperliquid in perpetual futures quantity, a comparability that can change into related once we get to the knowledge.
CZ seems to be diversifying in the prediction markets area, and has pushed again on winner-take-all framing. “This isn’t a ‘winner-takes-all race,’” he told crypto.news. “In any market, a number of gamers often coexist.”
He credit Kalshi and Polymarket with mainstreaming the class and describes YZi’s strategy as multi-platform, constructing BNB Chain’s share of the ecosystem quite than backing a single challenger.
The regulatory backdrop: Onchain, not CFTC regulated
This can be a great place to notice that Opinion operates totally exterior the U.S. regulatory framework that governs its two largest rivals.
Kalshi has been the high absolutely CFTC-regulated designated contract market (DCM) in phrases of prediction market quantity, with KYC necessities, segregated buyer accounts, and federal oversight. Polymarket acquired CFTC-licensed trade QCX in July 2025 and started rolling out to US prospects in December. Both platforms function below the Commodity Exchange Act, which topics them to market integrity guidelines designed to forestall wash buying and selling, spoofing, and market manipulation.
Opinion operates on none of these rails. It’s a decentralized, no-KYC platform on BNB Chain, integrated by a Hong Kong-based entity, settling trades in stablecoins. This is just like how Polymarket’s predominant world platform operates, solely it does so on the Polygon blockchain.
At Opinion, customers join a crypto pockets and commerce permissionlessly. There aren’t any segregated accounts, no federal oversight, and no registration with U.S. regulators. It geoblocks U.S. IP addresses, however enforcement is proscribed to the honor system and VPN detection. More than a dozen further nations and territories are listed on Opinion’s restricted jurisdictions checklist, together with China and the United Kingdom. Interestingly, the web site additionally has a particular pop-up discover towards utilizing its platform in Pennsylvania.
The onchain distinction doesn’t essentially make Opinion illegitimate — loads of profitable crypto platforms function exterior U.S. jurisdiction. But it does imply the quantity figures we’re about to look at aren’t topic to the similar integrity safeguards that apply to Kalshi’s CFTC-reported knowledge, which issues whenever you’re attempting to match platforms on equal footing.
Industry development context: $2 billion to $26 billion in six months
The industry-level development is staggering and actual. As we reported in a recent volume report, the prediction market {industry} grew roughly 13x in six months, from $2 billion in whole month-to-month quantity in August 2025 to $26 billion in January 2026. That development was not evenly distributed, and Opinion’s arrival was a significant a part of the story.
Kalshi’s month-to-month quantity went from $874 million (Aug) to $9.55 billion (Jan), an 11x improve pushed overwhelmingly by sports activities. Polymarket grew from $1.1 billion to $7.66 billion, a 7x improve, with a extra diversified break up throughout sports activities, crypto, and politics. Both trajectories replicate sustained development over six months pushed largely by sports markets together with NFL buying and selling curiosity, and a gentle stream of partnerships and new distribution channels.
Opinion didn’t exist in August or September. It launched Oct. 23, posted $791 million in its first partial month, hit $4.2 billion in November, and by December was producing $6.7 billion — greater than both Kalshi or Polymarket that month. No prediction market platform has ever scaled that quick.
That speedy ascent drew fast consideration. Within weeks of launch, CryptoTimes documented X customers noting “reducing transactions whereas rising quantity” and “10x quantity volatility day over day,” calling it “apparent quantity manipulation, just like Aster DEX.” CoinLaw’s protection round the similar interval famous the development was “perhaps too explosive” and flagged the Aster comparability, a reference to the YZi-backed perpetual futures trade that exhibited comparable quantity patterns on BNB Chain.
Those early flags didn’t sluggish Opinion’s development. Its quantity saved climbing into the new 12 months, peaking at $1.95 billion the week of Jan. 19. Then its current decline started. And the knowledge the early observers flagged has solely intensified.
What the weekly knowledge really exhibits
Dune has tracked Opinion weekly since Oct. 20. The full 17-week dataset tells the story in sharper decision than the month-to-month figures. Note: This report contains Dune knowledge by Feb. 15, 2026.
Opinion held the #1 world quantity place for 3 separate weeks: Nov. 10 ($1.46B), Dec. 1 ($1.35B), and Dec. 8 ($1.53B). During the week of Nov. 10, it produced 53% extra quantity than Polymarket regardless of processing 19x fewer transactions. Its peak weekly quantity was $1.95 billion (Jan. 19), at which level it held a 31.5% share of the whole {industry}.
Then it fell. Four consecutive down weeks: $1.95B → $1.74B → $1.24B → $709.7M. That’s a 63.6% decline, by far the steepest pullback of any main platform throughout that stretch. As we famous in our Feb. 9 volume report, “Opinion’s 28.7% WoW drop to $1.24 billion is its lowest weekly quantity since early January and pushes it firmly into third, effectively behind the Kalshi-Polymarket pair.” The following week it dropped one other 42.8%.
To put the volatility in perspective: Kalshi dipped 13.2% from its current high over the similar four-week interval. Polymarket fell 1.9%. Opinion fell 63.6%. As we’ve written previously, Opinion “swings more durable in each instructions than its bigger rivals.” That sample has been seen all through its life: week-over-week adjustments of +283%, −11%, +119%, −44%, +34%, and so forth. No different tracked platform reveals something near this stage of volatility.
The trade-size anomaly: Opinion’s defining knowledge level
While quantity is the headline quantity, transactions inform a distinct story. In January 2026, Opinion generated $8.08 billion in quantity from 3.2 million transactions for an common commerce measurement of roughly $2,525. That similar month, Kalshi generated $9.55 billion from 54.5 million transactions ($175 common). Polymarket generated $7.66 billion from 52.0 million transactions ($147 common).
Opinion produced 31% of January’s {industry} quantity from lower than 3% of its transactions.
This has been the platform’s structural signature since launch. As we reported in our post-Super Bowl quantity report: “Opinion’s 608,906 transactions towards $1.24 billion in quantity continues to underscore its unusually massive common commerce measurement of roughly $2,038 per transaction, in comparison with $157 at Kalshi and $123 at Polymarket.”
Across the first 17 weeks of Dune monitoring, Opinion’s common commerce measurement has ranged from $1,013 to $6,688. Polymarket’s vary over the similar interval is $96–$329 with a gentle and constant downward development as the platform provides extra retail customers. Opinion’s commerce measurement has by no means as soon as converged towards {industry} norms.
The week of Nov. 10 was the starkest illustration. Opinion posted $1.46 billion in quantity from 218,582 transactions ($6,688 common). Polymarket posted $952 million from 4.19 million transactions ($228 common). That was 19 occasions fewer trades and 53% extra quantity.
There’s one notable exception over the Dec. 22–Jan. 4 vacation interval. During these two weeks, Opinion’s transactions surged to 1.4–1.8 million (from a typical 300K–600K), and its common commerce measurement dropped to the $1,000–$1,163 vary. This was the solely interval the place Opinion’s exercise profile seemed extra like a traditional prediction market. Then it snapped again. One potential interpretation: real retail participation surged throughout the holidays, presumably from a promotional push, briefly diluting the platform’s whale and farming base, then receded as these customers moved on. Or perhaps one thing else.
Volume per consumer: Where the hole is widest
The per-user figures amplify every thing. For the most up-to-date tracked week (Feb. 9), Opinion had 18,098 weekly energetic customers producing $709.7 million, roughly $39,200 per consumer. Polymarket’s 309,991 customers generated $1.88 billion, about $6,060 per consumer. The hole is 6.5x.
What’s extra uncommon is the trajectory. The month-to-month knowledge exhibits Opinion’s quantity per consumer doubled as the platform scaled, from $38,537/consumer in October (20,534 customers) to $79,241/consumer in January (101,954 customers). Normally, rising a consumer base 5x dilutes per-user metrics as new, extra informal customers be part of. On Opinion, every successive cohort traded extra aggressively than the final. That’s the reverse of what natural development sometimes produces on platforms like Polymarket, the place per-user quantity has grown steadily however step by step ($4,852/consumer in August to $11,817/consumer in January — a 2.4x improve with 2.9x extra customers).
The consumer base itself is remarkably unstable, one other potential pink flag. Total customers have swung from 11,124 (launch week) to 67,913 (Dec. 29) and again to 18,098 (Feb. 9). Two distinct spikes got here throughout the Dec. 22–Jan. 4 vacation interval (66K–68K customers) and the week of Feb. 2 (67,804). Both have been adopted by sharp contractions. The Feb. 2 to Feb. 9 drop (67,804 to 18,098), a 73% decline in one week, was the most dramatic consumer swing of any platform in our dataset.
Polymarket’s consumer base, in contrast, has ranged from 214,962 to 323,525 over the similar 17-week interval, a 1.5x vary with a gentle upward development.
What’s driving the numbers: The factors system
There are some potential explanations for the knowledge anomalies, together with a particular incentive design.
Opinion runs the OPINION Point System (PTS), its major mechanism for rewarding participation forward of an anticipated token launch ($OPN). Per the platform’s official documentation, a set pool of 100,000 factors is distributed weekly to customers who meet a $200 minimal quantity threshold. Points are scored throughout three dimensions: restrict order placement (rewarding liquidity provision close to the market mid-price), commerce measurement (explicitly “designed to reward conviction and data contribution”), and place holding period.
There is not any token but, and no mounted conversion price. Essentially, customers are farming for an airdrop with speculative upside. Multiple third-party guides stroll customers by the optimization: Whales Market instructs customers to “present liquidity, commerce with high quality, maintain your positions.” CoinLaunch describes it as “smooth airdrop farming with further steps.”
The factors construction creates a number of dynamics that assist clarify the quantity patterns. The $200 weekly minimal ensures each energetic consumer generates a minimum of that a lot in “motivated” quantity. Larger trades earn proportionally extra factors, which immediately incentivizes the outsized commerce sizes we’re seeing. And then place holding inflates open curiosity as a secondary metric. And the pre-token surroundings means all of this exercise probably skews towards speculative buying and selling quite than expressive of real market views.
None of that is distinctive to crypto. But the mixture of a pre-token airdrop, specific rewards for bigger trades, and a no-KYC surroundings creates a strong set of incentives which will assist clarify the magnitude of the anomalies.
Right on Dune’s data dashboards reads the following disclaimer: “There is not any filter for wash quantity utilized at the moment so be cautious.” All indicators level to scrub quantity being a significant factor in Opinion’s tracked quantity figures.
Wash buying and selling: The Polymarket precedent
Incentive-driven quantity isn’t new. In reality, tutorial and {industry} analysis has documented incentive-driven quantity inflation on the largest onchain prediction market.
In November 2025, Columbia University researchers estimated that roughly 25% of all Polymarket buying and selling quantity over three years was probably generated by “wash buying and selling,” the place customers have interaction in synthetic, round, or self-dealing transactions to create the phantasm of upper exercise. Sports markets have been hardest hit at 45% of all-time sports activities quantity. The researchers flagged 14% of the platform’s 1.26 million wallets for suspicious exercise in step with wash buying and selling, resembling repeatedly shopping for and promoting the similar contracts in a brief interval. The findings point out that this follow considerably inflates the platform’s quantity metrics, significantly round hypothesis for potential token airdrops.
The structural components the Columbia researchers recognized — no KYC, pseudonymous accounts, no buying and selling charges, and a possible future token — overlap considerably with Opinion’s mannequin. One important distinction: Opinion does cost buying and selling charges, which provides friction that Polymarket’s zero-fee surroundings lacked. But Opinion’s energetic PTS system, with its specific rewards for bigger trades, provides an extra incentive that Polymarket’s setup didn’t have.
| Factor | Kalshi | Polymarket (Global) | Opinion |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC regulated | Yes (DCM) | Yes (through QCX) | No |
| KYC required | Yes | Partial | No |
| Trading charges | Yes | Zero | Yes |
| Token launched | N/A | No | No (PTS energetic) |
| Avg commerce measurement (Feb 9) | ~$135 | $96 | $2,638 |
| Vol per consumer (Feb 9) | N/A | $6,060/wk | $39,212/wk |
| Independent wash buying and selling examine | N/A | Yes (25-33%) | None revealed |
No unbiased evaluation of Opinion’s on-chain quantity integrity has been revealed, a minimum of as of but. But the knowledge is offered on BNB Chain. Opinion has not returned our requests for remark.
Key takeaways from Opinion commerce knowledge evaluation
Here’s what 17 weeks of Dune knowledge, six months of month-to-month figures, and our personal weekly quantity monitoring inform us in mixture:
The quantity is actual, in the sense that it occurred onchain. Opinion generated huge buying and selling exercise on BNB Chain. At its January peak, 101,954 month-to-month customers produced $8.08 billion in quantity. It’s a functioning prediction trade with working infrastructure and market decision.
But the volume-to-transaction ratio has by no means seemed regular. Opinion’s share of {industry} transactions peaked at 8.6% (Dec. 29) at the same time as its quantity share hit 33.6%. By Feb. 9, it was producing 13.2% of {industry} quantity from roughly 0.7% of {industry} transactions — a 19:1 ratio that no different platform approaches. That hole has been constant since launch.
The consumer base volatility is unmatched. Swings from 11,124 to 67,913 and again to 18,098 counsel campaign-driven exercise cycles, not natural development. Polymarket’s consumer base varies 1.5x. Opinion’s varies 6x.
The volume-per-user ratio grew as the platform scaled, not shrunk. From $38,537/consumer in October to $79,241/consumer in January. In regular platform development, new customers dilute the common. On Opinion, every successive cohort traded bigger.
The vacation anomaly is telling. During Dec. 22–Jan. 4, transactions surged, common commerce measurement dropped to ~$1,000, and the consumer base hit 66K–68K. It was the solely interval the place Opinion’s knowledge profile resembled a typical prediction market. But then it reverted.
These patterns are in step with incentive-driven exercise: airdrop farming, factors optimization, and inflated buying and selling volumes. They’re additionally constant, a minimum of in concept, with a genuinely institutional consumer base making massive macro bets. The distinction between these two explanations issues for Opinion’s valuation, for the way the {industry} counts development, and for the credibility of quantity as the metric by which prediction markets are in contrast.
Where issues stand now
Opinion stays the third-largest prediction market platform at $709.7 million weekly, comfortably forward of predict.enjoyable ($184.7M), Limitless ($109.4M), and the remainder of the discipline. It has actual infrastructure, credible institutional buyers (Hack VC, Jump Crypto), and market choices, together with macro occasions, crypto/TGE outcomes, and esports that fill real gaps in the Kalshi/Polymarket panorama, significantly for non-U.S. merchants who can’t entry CFTC-regulated exchanges.
But the knowledge we’ve compiled ought to give readers a framework for evaluating what these headline quantity figures signify. An common commerce measurement 27x bigger than Polymarket’s, a consumer base that swings 6x in weeks, a volume-per-user determine that doubled as the platform scaled, and an incentive system that explicitly rewards bigger trades are all knowledge factors that warrant scrutiny, the similar type of scrutiny that Columbia’s researchers and different like Chaos Labs have utilized to Polymarket.
The methodology exists and the on-chain knowledge is public. But in-depth evaluation hasn’t been completed. Until it’s, Opinion’s quantity numbers are what they’re: massive, probably inflated, and open to interpretation.
Volume, transaction, and consumer knowledge sourced from Dune Analytics prediction market dashboards. Kalshi and Polymarket real-time knowledge from DeFi Rate’s prediction market tracker. Historical quantity knowledge compiled from DeFi Rate’s weekly volume report series.
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