Patriots-Seahawks Prediction Market Volume Jumps from $5.8M to $105.5M in 24 Hours
(*24*) market merchants poured practically $100 million into Patriots-Seahawks on Kalshi in 24 hours, lifting the sport’s displayed quantity from $5.85 million to $105.48 million earlier than the remainder of the NFL’s Week 1 schedule had kicked off.
The whole 2025 Cowboys-Eagles opener generated $28.01 million on Kalshi. New England-Seattle cleared that whole practically 4 instances over in a single day, offering the primary indication that DeFi Rate’s $56.5 billion NFL season forecast could have significantly extra room to run.
Polymarket Global recorded one other $4.70 million on the sport, together with $4.46 million in the identical 24-hour interval. Polymarket US had reported $1.02 million via Sept. 8, bringing the present three-operator whole to not less than $111.20 million. Its Sept. 9 report, which can seize game-day exercise, continues to be pending.
This 12 months’s opener left final season’s benchmark behind
The 2025 season opened with Dallas-Philadelphia producing $28.01 million on Kalshi and $4.37 million on Polymarket Global. Together, the 2 operators completed at $32.38 million.
Patriots-Seahawks has already reached $110.18 million throughout those self same two operators, a rise of $77.80 million and three.4 instances the quantity generated by final 12 months’s opener.
The progress got here virtually solely from Kalshi. Its sport quantity jumped by $77.48 million from one season opener to the subsequent, accounting for 99.6% of the like-for-like enhance. Polymarket Global rose 7.4%, from $4.37 million to $4.70 million.
First regular-season sport comparability
| Operator | 2025 ultimate | 2026 ultimate | Increase | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $28,008,514.00 | $105,483,868.78 | $77,475,354.78 | 3.77× |
| Polymarket Global | $4,374,523.33 | $4,698,548.49 | $324,025.16 | 1.07× |
| Like-for-like whole | $32,383,037.33 | $110,182,417.27 | $77,799,379.94 | 3.40× |
| Polymarket US | No comparable 2025 report | $1,020,380.98 via Sept. 8 | — | — |
Polymarket US is excluded from the year-over-year calculation as a result of there is no such thing as a comparable 2025 Daily Market Report sequence.
Moneyline led the sport, however participant props have been practically as giant as spreads
Moneyline and period-winner markets did many of the work on Kalshi, producing $61.93 million, or 58.7% of the sport’s $105.48 million headline quantity.
The extra revealing quantity got here from participant props. Touchdowns, receiving yards, speeding yards and different participant markets produced $16.98 million, making them the second-largest a part of the sport. Player props narrowly surpassed spreads, which generated $15.71 million.
Over/below markets added $9.61 million. The remaining $1.25 million got here from workforce and sport props, together with successful margin, extra time, subject targets, sacks and which workforce would rating first.
Polymarket Global remained extra concentrated in the standard markets. Moneyline and interval winners accounted for $2.50 million of its $4.70 million whole, adopted by $1.26 million in spreads and $932,617 in totals.
Patriots-Seahawks quantity by market sort
| Type | Kalshi | Polymarket Global | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline and interval winners | $61,932,350.89 | $2,502,419.02 | $821,495.73 |
| Player props | $16,982,411.81 | — | $20,160.99 |
| Spreads | $15,714,849.56 | $1,263,466.30 | $146,217.06 |
| Over/below totals | $9,607,772.49 | $932,616.65 | $32,507.20 |
| Other sport and workforce props | $1,246,484.03 | $46.51 | — |
| Main game-market whole | $105,483,868.78 | $4,698,548.49 | $1,020,380.98 |
Combos added one other layer
The $105.48 million Kalshi determine doesn’t embody its separate multivariate-combo product.
Kalshi listed 1,050 mixtures made up solely of Patriots-Seahawks markets. Those same-game combos generated one other $18.08 million, lifting instantly attributable Kalshi quantity for the sport to $123.57 million.
| Kalshi class | # of markets | Volume | Treatment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Same-game combos containing solely Patriots-Seahawks legs | 1,050 | $18,084,524.28 | Fully attributable to the sport |
| Mixed-event combos containing not less than one Patriots-Seahawks leg | 3,227 | $141,513,819.71 | Reported individually; not totally attributable |
| Kalshi sport quantity together with same-game combos | — | $123,568,393.06 | Main GAME basket plus totally attributable combos |
The further $141.51 million in mixed-event combos reveals how broadly Patriots-Seahawks was used as a constructing block throughout Kalshi. Because these mixtures additionally included different NFL video games, sports activities and occasions, their full quantity can’t be assigned to Patriots-Seahawks and is excluded from the sport whole.
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