Polish Crypto Influencer Says the Supercycle Is Dead, Bitcoin Is Back in a Classic Bear Market

Bitcoin is as soon as once more at the middle of discussions about market cyclicality, and Polish crypto influencer Phil Konieczny argues that the present declines match completely into his earlier forecasts. 

He emphasizes that Bitcoin is behaving in accordance with a historic sample, and the market realized too late that the bull market was over. According to him, the present bear market is a pure a part of the cycle and shouldn’t be ignored.

The cryptocurrency market goes via a troublesome section, however in Phil’s opinion the whole lot goes precisely because it ought to.

Bitcoin in a Bear Market

Phil Konieczny begins his video from the assertion that the present market behaves in a textbook approach in terms of 4-year cycles. He claims that Bitcoin, which trades for round $85,000 at this time, follows a sample already seen a number of instances.

In the subsequent half, he emphasizes that historic peaks have occurred earlier every time. Phil explains that in 2017 the peak got here in December, in 2021 it arrived in November, and the present peak appeared in October. In his view, these knowledge factors affirm the market’s cyclicality.

He additionally notes that Bitcoin is now coming into a pure downward section. He provides that many individuals ignored the alerts, though they have been seen.

Phil additionally feedback on Bitcoin’s dominance, which in his opinion shouldn’t be rising as strongly because it ought to. At the identical time, smaller altcoins file enormous losses, usually at 60–80% per yr. This exhibits the actual weak point of the market.

Phil’s Key Warnings

Phil Konieczny brazenly says that the supercycle narrative was flawed. In his opinion, the market gave clear alerts that cyclicality continued. He emphasizes that it was unwise to disregard this knowledge.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is beneath its 50-week shifting common. In Phil’s opinion, that is a basic bear market sign.  However, the buyers mustn’t ignore the potentialities of a dead-cat bounce.

The Polish influencer warns buyers to keep away from altcoins. This is as a result of, the threat of investing on altcoins is just too high. Not to say, many altcoins by no means recovered from earlier bear markets.

Macroeconomics, ETFs and key investor questions on Bitcoin

Phil discusses the macroeconomic scenario extensively, which he believes may be very worrying. It factors to an inverted yield curve that has traditionally all the time heralded a recession.

He mentions Americans’ debt and the rising variety of firm bankruptcies. It additionally highlights the dangers arising from the US–China commerce struggle. In his opinion, these elements considerably restrict the progress potential of markets.

Then he discusses the matter of ETFs. He explains that their purchases have been one in every of the foremost drivers of the starting of the bull market.

However, he notes that their exercise alone shouldn’t be sufficient if the macro scenario doesn’t enhance. Phil ndicates that the correlation between S&P 500 and Bitcoin has grow to be one-sided. This signifies that inventory market declines drag down cryptocurrencies, however will increase don’t give them the identical help.

The Polish influencer sums it up:

• Bitcoin responds to macro and macro appears dangerous,
• Altcoins have an especially low likelihood of creating a lasting rebound, the
• The cycle appears the identical as the earlier ones.

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