Polymarket Bettors See Over 70% Chance Bitcoin Falls Below $65K — Are They Right?
Prediction market contributors on Polymarket are assigning a 71% chance that Bitcoin will drop under $65,000 in 2026, because the crypto traded round $75,000 following a weekend sell-off that pushed it to nine-month lows.
The bearish sentiment displays a convergence of technical indicators, underwater ETF positions, and analyst warnings that the market has entered a sustained downturn somewhat than a brief correction.
Multiple analysts now level to help zones between $62,000 and $65,000 as vital checks for Bitcoin’s trajectory, with some warning {that a} break under these ranges may set off an prolonged bear part harking back to earlier cycle downturns.
The prediction market knowledge aligns with rising issues from each on-chain analysts and conventional market observers who see mounting proof of structural weak spot somewhat than routine volatility.
Key Support Levels Draw Market Attention
Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity identified $65,000 as an important threshold in early January, noting that Bitcoin has been “following the web S-curve rather a lot nearer now than the ability legislation curve.“
He warned that “$65k (earlier high), and under that $45k” signify vital strains within the sand, with the ability legislation trendline probably converging nearer to $65,000 if consolidation continues by way of the yr.
The $62,000 stage carries further significance as Binance’s Reserve RP indicator, which tracks common acquisition prices on the trade, now sits at that value in line with a latest Cryptonews analysis.
“Bitcoin has by no means examined this stage since Spot ETF approval,” Kesmeci mentioned, noting the metric has risen sharply from $42,000 pre-ETF ranges on account of institutional participation reshaping market construction since January 2024.
CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno projects potential lows between $56,000 and $60,000 based mostly on Bitcoin’s realized value evaluation.
“People proceed to suppose it is a ‘bull market’ correction. It’s not,” Moreno said, emphasizing that “we’ve got been saying we’re in a bear market since early November” when Bitcoin traded round $100,000.
He added that “bear market bottoms take months to type,” cautioning in opposition to timing entries after every decline.
ETF Investors Face Mounting Pressure
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned underwater, with the typical buy value sitting at roughly $87,830 per coin whereas Bitcoin trades effectively under that stage, in line with Galaxy’s Alex Thorn.
The merchandise recorded their second- and third-largest weekly outflows on document final month, with roughly $2.8 billion in web redemptions over two weeks, in line with Coinglass knowledge.
Strategy’s huge 712,647 BTC place now carries unrealized losses exceeding $900 million after Bitcoin dropped under the corporate’s $76,037 common value foundation, Lookonchain reported.
Strategy shares have declined about 61% over the previous six months, buying and selling close to $149.71, regardless of the corporate’s continued accumulation efforts and Michael Saylor’s weekend trace of one other buy.
CryptoQuant knowledge reveals elevated volatility alerts on Binance, with vary z30 climbing to round +3.72, a studying that “has typically preceded robust value actions, both within the type of sharp upward breakouts or speedy downward strikes pushed by widespread liquidation,” in line with their analyst report.
Daily buying and selling quantity reached roughly 39,500 BTC, suggesting renewed speculative exercise regardless of sideways value motion.
Competing Theories on Bitcoin’s Direction
Jeff Park of Bitwise provided a contrarian perspective in his recently anaysis, suggesting that Bitcoin’s drop to $82,000 following rumors of Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination may need marked the cycle low.
“To be trustworthy, I don’t know if $82k was certainly the underside, and naturally no person can actually declare to know both,” Park wrote, however famous that “traditionally, bottoms are nearly all the time famous by a radical shift in market regime that essentially resets investor habits and expectations.“
Peter Schiff’s March 2025 prediction that Bitcoin may attain $65,000 if the NASDAQ enters a bear market now appears prescient.
“If this correction seems to be a bear market, and the correlation the place a 12% decline within the NASDAQ equates to a 24% decline in Bitcoin holds, when the NASDAQ is down 20%, Bitcoin will probably be about $65K,” Schiff warned at the moment.
Whether Polymarket’s 71% chance proves correct might rely upon Bitcoin’s capacity to carry the $75,000-$77,000 zone the place the newest liquidations cleared.
In reality, CoinSwitch Markets Desk instructed Cryptonews that if help holds, “selling strain might ease and value may vary or get better regularly, with $80K as the primary resistance.“
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