Polymarket Set to Reopen in US Tomorrow After $112M Exchange Acquisition
Polymarket is about to reopen to US customers after almost 4 years of an efficient ban by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, with filings indicating the platform might launch as early as October 2.
The prediction market acquired QCX LLC for $112 million in July, securing a Designated Contract Market license that permits it to self-certify markets for U.S. customers, together with sports activities and election betting.
The breakthrough caps a strategic yr that positioned the $2.6 billion platform for speedy U.S. growth, together with high-profile board appointments and large institutional backing.
CEO Shayne Coplan earlier stated that Polymarket “has been given the inexperienced gentle to go reside in the USA” following the CFTC’s no-action letter issued in September, crediting the Commission for “spectacular work” accomplished in “file timing.”
Polymarket was pressured to exit the U.S. in January 2022 after regulatory enforcement, agreeing to block American customers and pay a $1.4 million civil penalty for working an unregistered trade.
The platform continued explosive development abroad regardless of the ban, processing over $6 billion in bets throughout the first half of 2025 alone and gaining prominence by precisely predicting Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential victory.
$10B Valuation Target Follows Thiel Investment and Trump Jr. Board Role
Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund led a $200 million funding spherical in June, valuing Polymarket at $1 billion.
The firm is now in discussions to elevate new capital that would push its valuation past $10 billion, greater than tripling the June determine, because it prepares for reentry into the U.S. market.
Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board in August, as his enterprise capital agency 1789 Capital invested tens of hundreds of thousands of {dollars}, increasing the platform’s U.S. political attain.
The appointment got here shortly after the Department of Justice and CFTC closed their investigations into Polymarket with out pursuing additional motion in July.
Polymarket has secured high-profile partnerships, together with a collaboration with Elon Musk’s X platform to combine prediction markets with AI-powered evaluation from the xAI chatbot Grok.
The platform introduced a 4% annualized yield in September on sure long-term positions in political and geopolitical markets, together with the 2028 U.S. presidential race and management outcomes in Russia, China, Turkey, Israel, and Ukraine.
Blockchain prediction market @Polymarket is getting ready a return to the United States because it eyes a possible $10 billion valuation.#Polymarket #Cryptohttps://t.co/MROvtgwymw
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) September 13, 2025
Kalshi Dominance Sets Stage for Fierce Market Competition
Rival platform Kalshi has dominated U.S. prediction market exercise since Polymarket’s 2022 exit, posting increased volumes than Polymarket for 3 consecutive weeks by way of September.
Kalshi recorded $728 million in trades in one week, almost 60% increased than Polymarket’s quantity and shut to Kalshi’s file $749 million throughout the 2024 presidential election run-up.
Data from Dune Analytics exhibits Kalshi captured 66.13% of complete on-chain prediction market quantity between September 16 and 22, with greater than $854 million in trades and $192 million in open curiosity.
On the opposite hand, Polymarket noticed $405 million in buying and selling quantity and $166 million in open curiosity over the identical interval.
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-authorized Designated Contract Market, following a 2024 courtroom victory that allowed it to supply contracts on political occasions.
The CFTC initially contested the ruling however later dropped its problem, giving Kalshi a regulatory benefit.
The NFL season kickoff reignited market engagement, with Kalshi processing $441 million in buying and selling quantity since Week 1.
However, Kalshi faces mounting authorized challenges from state regulators.
Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell filed a civil lawsuit in September, accusing Kalshi of working unlicensed sports activities betting disguised as “occasion contracts.”
The swimsuit alleges that between January and June 2025, 70-75% of Kalshi’s $1 billion in wagers got here from sports activities markets, rivaling licensed operators like DraftKings.
Nevada and New Jersey gaming regulators issued cease-and-desist orders forcing Kalshi to droop sports-related contracts in each states.
Kalshi filed a lawsuit in March challenging the orders, arguing its contracts fall underneath CFTC jurisdiction moderately than state-level gaming regulation.
The firm maintains that its occasion contracts perform as two-sided swap markets, in contrast to conventional sports activities betting, the place the home controls odds.
Polymarket nonetheless faces restrictions in France, Belgium, Thailand, and Singapore, the place authorities have cited playing legislation violations.
However, the brand new DCM license permits the platform to legally supply real-money markets to U.S. residents whereas leveraging self-certified markets to differentiate itself with broader occasion choices.
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