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Polymarket Shows 75% Odds of Bitcoin Dropping Below $55K – What Traders Need to Know

Polymarket Shows 72% Odds of Bitcoin Dropping Below $55K – What Traders Need to Know

Traders on prediction market Polymarket are pricing in a 75% likelihood that Bitcoin (BTC) will plunge beneath $55,000, signaling a pointy shift 18% in a single day rise in bearish sentiment because the asset struggles to maintain the $65,000 help degree.

Polymarket Shows 72% Odds of Bitcoin Dropping Below $55K – What Traders Need to Know
Source: Polymarket

This quantified bearish knowledge arrives as Bitcoin struggles to stay the 14th biggest asset in international market cap rankings.

Why Are Prediction Markets Signaling Bearish Sentiment?

The pessimistic outlook follows a troublesome weekend the place Bitcoin’s market capitalization fell to $1.31 trillion, dropping briefly behind the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

Prices have retreated roughly 31% over the past 12 months from highs close to $100,000, pushed by fading post-halving momentum.

Recent knowledge reveals the whole crypto market cap has reached a forty five% drawdown. Since its October 5, 2025, high of $4.3 trillion, crypto has shed practically $2 trillion to command a mixed market cap of $2.35 trillion.

Institutional urge for food seems to be waning briefly, with spot Bitcoin ETFs logging a fifth straight week of outflows.

While the asset holds above $66,000 for now, the recent fall below $65K reignited fears that macro headwinds and geopolitical tensions are overpowering the normal inflation-hedge narrative.

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Breaking Down the Polymarket Data

The 72% chance determine derives from energetic contracts on Polymarket, the place quantity on bearish strikes is surging.

Bets on BTC falling beneath $50,000 and $45,000 now maintain odds of 62% and 47% respectively, with mixed buying and selling volumes exceeding $1.5 million.

Heavy crypto wagering persists internationally, even because the Dutch regulator orders Polymarket to halt operations in particular jurisdictions and US state regulators crack down on prediction markets.

Technical indicators help this warning; evaluation from BeInCrypto highlights bearish RSI divergence on weekly charts, usually a precursor to deeper corrections.

While prediction markets can overshoot, the high confidence in sub-$55K costs aligns with Standard Chartered’s projection of a dip to $50,000 earlier than any structural restoration to $100,000, in accordance to information broadly circulated from a current notice to buyers.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju equally famous in a current interview that $55,000 might symbolize the final word market backside for this cycle.

What Does This Mean for BTC Price?

For merchants, the $55,000 degree is the crucial line within the sand. If the present $63,300 help cluster fails, liquidation cascades may quickly validate the prediction market’s bearish thesis.

However, on-chain knowledge reveals resilience: long-term holder promoting dropped 67% in February, from 244,919 BTC to simply 81,019 BTC, suggesting the “sensible cash” is completed promoting.

As traders buy crash protection by way of places, a reclaim of $72,200 stays obligatory to invalidate the bearish construction.

Despite short-term concern, Polymarket prediction markets nonetheless assign a 78% chance of BTC hitting $75,000 earlier than 2027, indicating that almost all market contributors view this potential drop as a extreme however only a short-term correction.

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The put up Polymarket Shows 75% Odds of Bitcoin Dropping Below $55K – What Traders Need to Know appeared first on Cryptonews.

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