Polymarket US 15-Minute Bitcoin Volume Hits $92M in First Full Week

Polymarket US noticed almost $92 million undergo its 15-minute Bitcoin markets throughout its first full seven reported days, a a lot quicker begin than Kalshi noticed when it launched the identical short-duration format late final 12 months.

The prediction market did greater than 400 instances as a lot 15-minute Bitcoin quantity as Kalshi throughout these first full seven-day intervals.

That doesn’t suggest Polymarket US will comply with the identical path as Kalshi. But it does present that this new product class is greater than only a area of interest market.

Polymarket top-line efficiency on 15-minute crypto markets

• Polymarket US BTC earlier than launch: $624,904 throughout all verified BTC markets throughout Sept. 15-21.

• Polymarket US first full week after launch: $101.19 million throughout straight categorized Bitcoin markets from Sept. 23-29, roughly 162x the prior seven enterprise days.

• BTC 15-minute quantity: $91.76 million, or about 90.7% of straight categorized Bitcoin quantity throughout that first full week.

• BTC 1-hour quantity: $8.74 million.

• Daily 15-minute quantity: elevated from $2.40 million on Sept. 23 to $27.71 million on Sept. 29.

• Reported transactions: elevated from 63,650 to 739,034 over the identical interval.

Short-term markets are altering the dimensions of the Bitcoin enterprise

The venue recorded $1.47 million in whole verified BTC quantity 30 enterprise days earlier than the short-term launch. On Sept. 21, the day earlier than launch, Bitcoin quantity was solely about $218,000.

From Sept. 23-29, Bitcoin quantity skyrocketed to $101.2 million. That’s virtually 69 instances the amount of the earlier 30 enterprise days mixed.

On Sept. 29 alone, PUS BTC markets did about $30.6 million, with reported transactions leaping from roughly 64,000 to 739,000.

Average contracts per reported transaction barely modified, from about 37.7 to 37.5.

Fifteen-minute Bitcoin took many of the new quantity

The one-hour product grew too, however the cut up was not overly shut.

During the primary full week, the corporate recorded $91.8 million in 15-minute BTC, $8.7 million in one-hour BTC, and one other $682,000 throughout different Bitcoin durations.

The 15-minute market accounted for about 91% of straight categorized Bitcoin quantity.

Traders overwhelmingly ended up in the shortest interval, with as many as 96 separate 15-minute home windows. The short-term product is interesting to a novel buying and selling viewers.

More trades, not greater trades, drove the class

On Sept. 23, the 15-minute Bitcoin markets generated about $2.4 million throughout 63,650 reported transactions. By Sept. 29, every day quantity had reached $27.7 million from 739,034 transactions.

Volume elevated about 11.6 instances. The transaction depend additionally elevated by about 11.6 instances, although curiously, the typical contract per transaction completed virtually precisely the place they began.

Across the primary full week, the ten largest particular person market rows accounted for less than about 5% of whole quantity.

Median quantity per particular person market additionally climbed sharply because the product obtained going. Through Sept. 28, it had risen from roughly $23,700 to virtually $182,000.

So exercise was getting deeper throughout many particular person markets reasonably than one hour dragging the entire larger.

Nearly $92 million unfold throughout a whole bunch of repeating markets appears to be like extra like folks adopting the product than a number of remoted occasions driving Polymarket’s US numbers.

Kalshi had already proven short-term crypto might work

Kalshi began from a a lot smaller base. Its BTC 15-minute markets generated about $226,000 throughout their first full seven days, in contrast with a 406x distinction on Polymarket US.

Kalshi’s one-hour markets continued to develop, from about $3.2 million per day earlier than launch to $15.8 million per day by days 61-90.

At the identical time, crypto turned a a lot greater a part of Kalshi. It went from about 2.6% of trade quantity earlier than the 15-minute launch to 14.5% in September.

By then, 15-minute markets have been doing many of the work. Kalshi recorded about $8.17 billion in crypto quantity from Sept. 1-28, with roughly $7 billion, or 86%, coming from 15-minute markets.

Kalshi provides a helpful long-term comparability. The product began tiny and grew with out killing the one-hour market.

Polymarket US is ranging from a very completely different place. Its first full week was already vastly profitable.

There is not any assure the subsequent a part of the curve appears to be like like Kalshi. It might degree off.

But the early product demand is fairly clear.

The Bitcoin class obtained dramatically greater after short-term markets appeared and Kalshi’s historical past presents a transparent instance of how rapidly a small, repeating market can develop.

About the information: DeFi Rate pulled and analyzed 94,705,964 BTC 15-minute commerce data for this research. That contains 91,734,870 Kalshi commerce data throughout its launch interval and September 2026, plus 2,971,094 Polymarket US Time & Sales data from Sept. 22-29. We additionally analyzed official venue quantity studies and product-level market knowledge for the before-and-after comparisons. These are commerce data, not distinctive merchants; neither public dataset offers dealer IDs. Kalshi exercise is grouped utilizing UTC transaction dates, whereas Polymarket US makes use of official enterprise days, so cross-venue comparisons use every venue’s native reporting interval reasonably than completely aligned timestamps. The pre-launch Polymarket US comparability makes use of Sept. 15-21 and the primary full post-launch comparability makes use of Sept. 23-29, leaving the Sept. 22 launch day trip of each intervals.