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Polymarket’s U.S. Comeback Positions Prediction Markets as a Coinbase Retention Play: Analyst

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Polymarket has re-entered the U.S. market following regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a transfer that might place prediction markets as a new engagement device for main crypto platforms such as Coinbase, based on a report by Clear Street analyst Owen Lau.

The prediction market operator which was restricted from serving U.S. clients in 2022, has returned after receiving a CFTC approval of an Amended Order of Designation.

Polymarket has now launched a U.S.-based utility initially providing a restricted set of sports-related occasion contracts, with extra verticals such as politics and crypto anticipated over time.

Lau describes the event as a significant reversal permitting Polymarket to onboard brokerages and clients straight whereas facilitating buying and selling on regulated U.S. venues.

Ultra-Low Fees Show Growing Competition

Polymarket’s comeback is accompanied by a notably aggressive pricing construction. The platform is providing 10 foundation level taker charges and nil maker charges which Lau believes is the bottom amongst main prediction market and sports activities betting platforms.

For comparability, DraftKings and FanDuel reported web income margins of 6.7% and 10.1%, respectively. Lau stated Polymarket’s pricing makes it a credible different to incumbent sports activities betting operators and indicators rising charge compression throughout event-based buying and selling markets.

State-Level Regulatory Risk Remains Fragmented

While the CFTC approval could counsel improved federal-level readability for sure occasion contracts, Lau cautioned that regulatory danger stays uneven on the state stage.

On Jan. 20, 2026, a Massachusetts choose granted an injunction stopping rival platform Kalshi from providing sports-related occasion contracts within the state.

More broadly, no less than three states — Massachusetts, Nevada, and Maryland — have issued unfavorable rulings in opposition to prediction market platforms, highlighting continued fragmentation throughout U.S. jurisdictions. This patchwork setting may complicate the sector’s enlargement even as federal oversight turns into clearer.

Coinbase Seen as Key Distribution Partner

Lau argues that these developments characterize a possibility for Coinbase and not directly Circle to companion with Polymarket or different prediction market platforms.

Coinbase’s scale — greater than 100 million verified customers and 9.3 million month-to-month transacting customers — gives a sizable and related distribution base for occasion contracts. In his observe, Lau means that prediction markets may gain advantage from being embedded into bigger platforms with present consumer engagement.

However, he notes that prediction markets could not develop into main standalone revenue facilities within the close to time period. Instead, Lau expects them to serve primarily as engagement and retention instruments inside Coinbase and different built-in platforms, serving to drive exercise and consumer stickiness amid rising competitors.

As prediction markets develop past sports activities into politics and crypto, Polymarket’s U.S. return may mark a new section for event-based buying and selling — even as regulatory uncertainty continues to form the sector’s trajectory.

The publish Polymarket’s U.S. Comeback Positions Prediction Markets as a Coinbase Retention Play: Analyst appeared first on Cryptonews.

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