Prediction Markets Cross $5.6B Week, Kalshi Takes 71% of Volume

Kalshi remained on tempo for an additional month-to-month quantity document throughout the week of May 18, whereas Polymarket’s decline widened the hole between the 2 largest prediction market platforms.

Kalshi posted $3.99 billion in notional quantity, up 3% from the prior week, based on DeFi Rate’s volume tracker. Polymarket fell 15% to $1.65 billion, down from $1.94 billion throughout the week of May 11.

Together, Kalshi and Polymarket generated $5.64 billion in weekly notional quantity, down about 3.1% from the prior week however nonetheless inside the vary that has outlined the mixed market since late April. Kalshi accounted for 70.8% of the entire, up from 66.7% the prior week.

With one week left in May, Kalshi has generated about $12 billion throughout the primary three reported weeks of the month, placing it inside attain of the $14.81 billion month-to-month document it set in April. Polymarket has generated about $5.19 billion over the identical stretch, leaving it nicely quick of the tempo wanted to problem its $10.57 billion March document.

Kalshi holds close to $4B as Polymarket pulls again

Kalshi’s newest weekly whole stored the CFTC-regulated trade close to the $4 billion stage for a 3rd straight week in May. Kalshi reached $4.13 billion throughout the week of May 4, slipped to $3.88 billion throughout the week of May 11 and rose again to $3.99 billion throughout the week of May 18.

Polymarket moved in the other way after a stronger week of May 11. Its 15% decline to $1.65 billion widened Kalshi’s lead within the head-to-head comparability. Polymarket’s volume hasn’t topped $2 billion in weekly notional buying and selling quantity because the week of April 13.

The Polymarket US development was completely different. Its 7.5% improve to $447.7 million gave the U.S.-facing platform one of the extra notable optimistic alerts within the week’s knowledge, whilst international Polymarket quantity declined.

Transactions moved larger on each of the main platforms. Kalshi processed 25.8 million transactions, up 7.3% week over week, whereas Polymarket processed 17.4 million, up 0.9%. That means Polymarket’s notional quantity fell whilst transaction rely edged larger, suggesting smaller common commerce dimension in contrast with the prior week.

What’s driving the momentum

Sports continues to be the biggest class throughout each Kalshi and Polymarket, although the 2 platforms continued to indicate completely different market mixes. Kalshi’s quantity was extra concentrated in sports activities and exotics, a class understood to largely seize parlay-style sports activities markets known as “combos,” whereas Polymarket confirmed a extra balanced combine of sports activities, crypto and politics.

Top market volumes under are from DeFi Rate’s rolling seven-day prediction markets tracker and replicate USD-at-price, or precise {dollars} traded, reasonably than notional quantity.

NBA playoff futures a major driver for Kalshi this week

Kalshi’s high markets have been led by sports activities, with NBA playoff futures and sport markets standing out. Its largest market was for the NBA Finals champion, adopted by the Los Angeles mayoral election winner, NBA Eastern and Western Conference champion markets and the NHL’s Stanley Cup champion.

The high markets additionally included particular person NBA video games, La Liga relegation, the 2026 World Cup winner and the Indian Premier League cricket champion, reflecting a busy late-May sports activities calendar. The NBA convention finals and NHL playoffs have been each energetic throughout the week, whereas soccer and cricket gave Kalshi extra sports activities depth exterior the main U.S. leagues.

Politics appeared in Kalshi’s high markets, however at a smaller scale than on Polymarket. Kalshi’s main political markets included Los Angeles mayor, the Texas Republican Senate main, 2028 presidential nominee markets and a brand new U.S.-Iran nuclear deal market.

Polymarket’s World Cup viewers capturing siginificant share

Polymarket’s high markets confirmed a extra international and current-events-driven combine. Its largest market was for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner, which ranked far forward of the remainder of the platform’s main markets.

Politics was the opposite main Polymarket driver. U.S.-Iran peace-deal markets, a Trump speech market tied to occasions with China’s Xi Jinping, 2028 presidential markets and abroad election markets all ranked amongst Polymarket’s high markets, giving the platform a a lot heavier politics combine than Kalshi.

Crypto additionally remained an necessary half of Polymarket’s weekly exercise. Bitcoin value markets, together with when Bitcoin will hit $150,000 and what value Bitcoin will hit in May, ranked among the many platform’s main markets.

Top markets at Polymarket US

Polymarket US continues to lag Kalshi in phrases of quantity, with $447.7M (+7.5% WoW), because the U.S. app continues to supply largely sports activities markets. Its high markets have been dominated by NBA, golf, cricket, tennis, WNBA, MLB and NHL contracts.

The largest Polymarket US markets included San Antonio vs. Oklahoma City, CJ Cup Byron Nelson golf markets, cricket match markets and a mixture of tennis and baseball markets. Non-sports exercise was restricted, with a U.S. Senate midterm market and a few climate markets showing exterior the principle sports activities cluster.

What to observe as we spherical out the month

Kalshi wants roughly $2.82 billion in quantity throughout the week of May 25 to surpass its $14.81 billion April document. That threshold is nicely under every of Kalshi’s first three weekly totals in May, giving the trade a transparent path to a new month-to-month high if exercise holds close to current ranges.

The sports activities calendar offers Kalshi a number of near-term catalysts, although some might compress reasonably than lengthen buying and selling exercise. The Knicks entered Monday evening’s Game 4 in opposition to Cleveland with a 3-0 lead within the Eastern Conference finals, which means a New York win would finish that sequence and take away a significant NBA market from the weekly board. The Western Conference finals stay energetic, whereas the NBA Finals are scheduled to start June 3.

The NHL convention finals, the French Open, MLB, WNBA and cricket markets give sports activities merchants extra shops this week, whereas Texas main runoffs, midterm and 2028 election markets, the June 16-17 Fed assembly and the June 11 begin of the 2026 FIFA World Cup might assist exercise throughout sports activities, politics, economics and futures markets.

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