Prediction Markets Fight Back With Free Groceries as New York Regulators Close In
Prediction markets tracked the rise of Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral victory. Now, they’re seemingly placing one in all his marketing campaign desires into motion. In an odd twist, each Kalshi and Polymarket have opened “free” grocery shops in New York City.
In an odd twist, each Kalshi and Polymarket have opened “free” grocery shops in New York City, whereas Gemini made an try to pay individuals to get out of the Kalshi line. The timing is definitely fascinating — these grocery giveaways launched inside hours of New York Attorney General Letitia James issuing a client alert warning in regards to the dangers of prediction markets.
Was this some type of coordinated effort to indicate a united entrance on group involvement from the nation’s greatest names in prediction markets? Or perhaps simply one other Kalshi-Polymarket spat performed out in a serious PR stunt? Either manner, the prediction market grocery wars obtained a number of eyeballs—and publicity—at a second when the trade faces mounting regulatory scrutiny within the Empire State.
Prediction market sweeps: Dueling free grocery initiatives
“F it. Free groceries for everybody,” Kalshi announced on Monday (Feb. 2), sharing its partnership with West Side Market in Manhattan. The platform introduced a $50 grocery giveaway to those that RSVP’d and arrived on the retailer between 12pm and 3pm.
Kalshi’s founder and CEO Tarek Mansour celebrated the launch on LinkedIn. “The winter has been chilly and troublesome for a lot of. We hope this helps somewhat. New York has given Kalshi a lot. It’s solely honest for Kalshi to provide to New York,” he wrote.
A day later, he shared a Fox 5 information clip of joyful buyers. “Thousands have already picked up their free Kalshi groceries!” he wrote. “We are being informed we’ve already impressed different firms to maintain up the initiative. I hope this turns into a development!”
The “different firms” reference may need been some refined shade towards Polymarket, as the identical day Kalshi and West Side Market held their promotion, Polymarket introduced that “The Polymarket” was coming.
“New York’s first free grocery retailer,” Polymarket introduced on social media. According to its submit, Polymarket “signed the lease” and donated $1 million to Food Bank for NYC, “a company that modifications how our metropolis responds to starvation” and fights meals insecurity throughout all 5 boroughs.
“Their mission is straightforward & inspirational: empower each New Yorker to attain meals safety for good,” learn the LinkedIn announcement. “The Polymarket is absolutely stocked. No buy required. We’re open to all New Yorkers. An actual, bodily funding in our group.”
Polymarket’s free market grand opening is scheduled for Feb. 12 at midday ET. “Free groceries. Free markets. Built for the individuals who energy New York. We’ll see you at The Polymarket’s grand opening subsequent week. We love you, New York City.”
The “pop-up grocery retailer” will run for 5 days within the metropolis, according to Business Insider. The proposed market’s handle is at present unknown.
“The activation is the results of months of planning—from securing permits and constructing out a devoted retail area to coordinating logistics and nonprofit partnerships—and represents a direct funding within the metropolis the place Polymarket was based and scaled,” the corporate mentioned in a press launch.
Gemini’s media stunt to pay individuals $100 to get out of the Kalshi line is gross.
Paying individuals $100 to go away the Kalshi market line. pic.twitter.com/6KXlzjzRql
— Gemini (@Gemini) February 3, 2026
The regulatory storm brewing in New York
The grocery giveaways come at a crucial second for prediction markets in New York. Within simply the previous few months, the trade has confronted an intensifying regulatory crackdown:
Attorney General points warning
On the identical day Kalshi launched its grocery promotion, Attorney General Letitia James issued a consumer alert warning New Yorkers about prediction markets forward of Super Bowl LX.
“Ahead of the Super Bowl, New Yorkers have to know the numerous dangers with unregulated prediction markets,” mentioned James in her assertion. “It’s crystal clear: so-called prediction markets don’t have the identical client protections as regulated platforms. I urge all New Yorkers to be cautious of those platforms to guard their cash.”
James didn’t cease at client warnings. She additionally put the trade on discover: “I’m additionally warning the prediction market trade that unlicensed sports activities wagering violates New York’s legal guidelines and will face civil and legal legal responsibility.”
The Coalition for Prediction Markets responded on X, noting that CFTC-regulated platforms have “lots of the guardrails the AG outlines – a ban on insider buying and selling, self-exclusion, and accountable buying and selling pointers. We all need the identical factor: protected, honest, and legit merchandise.”
Kalshi sues New York Gaming Commission
The grocery giveaway additionally follows Kalshi’s ongoing authorized battle with the Empire State. In late October 2025, the New York State Gaming Commission despatched Kalshi a cease-and-desist letter, demanding that the corporate “stop and desist instantly from illegally working, promoting, selling, administering, managing, or in any other case making accessible sports activities wagering and/or a cellular sports activities wagering platform in New York.”
Kalshi responded by filing a federal lawsuit in opposition to the Gaming Commission simply days later, arguing that solely the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has jurisdiction over its federally regulated change — not state gaming regulators.
New York joins a rising checklist of states which have issued cease-and-desist orders to prediction markets, together with Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, Illinois, Arizona, Montana, and Ohio.
The ORACLE Act looms
Perhaps the largest menace to prediction markets in New York is Assembly Bill A9251, identified as the ORACLE Act (Oversight and Regulation of Activity for Contracts Linked to Events).
Introduced by Assemblymember Clyde Vanel on November 7, 2025, and referred to the Assembly Committee on Consumer Affairs and Protection, the invoice seeks to categorize prediction market contracts as “unlicensed playing” and would impose civil fines of as much as $50,000 for persistent violations — escalating to $1 million per day for platforms that proceed to supply contracts on “delicate” classes like political outcomes, athletic occasions, catastrophic occurrences, death-related contracts, and securities worth actions.
The ORACLE Act would additionally increase the age requirement from 18 to 21 (matching New York sportsbooks), prohibit merchants from funding accounts with bank cards, and require accountable gaming options like self-exclusion choices and deposit limits.
Vanel told DeFi Rate in January: “We’re very involved that funding actions are being meshed and commingled with what we predict is wagering exercise.”
New OG prediction change steers away from New York
The regulatory uncertainty isn’t misplaced on new market entrants. When Crypto.com launched its standalone prediction market platform OG this week, it notably excluded one state from its 49-state rollout: New York. According to OG’s web site, the platform operates in “49 states plus Washington D.C.” with “New York excluded resulting from state regulatory necessities.”
The essential Crypto.com exchange additionally restricts prospects from New York.
Planting a flag in New York
Despite the regulatory headwinds, each Polymarket and Kalshi have been aggressively constructing their New York presence. Both exchanges are additionally headquartered in New York City.
Mamdani’s mayoral race drew tens of millions in buying and selling quantity throughout the 2 platforms and served as one other key second for mainstream integration and consciousness of prediction markets. Back in October, Polymarket landed a key backer with New York Stock Exchange proprietor Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) making a strategic investment of as much as $2 billion.
Polymarket also became the Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Rangers on Jan. 8, a take care of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. that may see Polymarket branding featured all through Rangers video games at MSG.
“This is a landmark partnership for the Rangers on this new and thrilling class, and Polymarket is the right match as some of the dependable and forward-thinking prediction market operators,” mentioned Jamaal Lesane, Chief Operating Officer of MSG Sports.
And Polymarket lately signed a partnership with Dow Jones, bringing prediction market knowledge to the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and MarketWatch. Needless to say, each exchanges have sturdy New York roots.
Prediction markets launch “zodegas”?
One of Mayor Mamdani’s signature marketing campaign platforms was tackling affordability and meals shortages by establishing city-run grocery shops. His plan, which he mentioned would value $60 million, would place at the very least one retailer in every borough, specializing in areas with out full-service supermarkets, according to CBS News.
With town protecting lease and property taxes, the shops wouldn’t have to concentrate on revenue and will cross the financial savings on to residents.
There is a few resistance from billionaire personal grocery store magnates and council members who’re involved {that a} city-run grocery retailer might hurt native delis and bodegas. But to those that don’t dwell in New York City, there are particular objects you simply can’t get at a bodega.
Interestingly, Kalshi’s market on whether or not “New York City [will] open a city-owned grocery retailer earlier than 2028” was buying and selling at $0.68, with simply $22k in quantity.
So, what’s the purpose?
So what’s the level of all of this? Kalshi and Polymarket’s grocery giveaways are, in essence, publicity stunts — however they’re strategically timed publicity stunts.
These giveaways are strategies of producing goodwill, that intangible asset that helps a enterprise, model, and firm when courting prospects — and maybe regulators. Goodwill is important to an organization’s progress, particularly when attracting new demographics and navigating hostile regulatory environments.
And that’s what’s occurring: prediction markets have gotten extra mainstream whereas concurrently going through their greatest regulatory challenges. At the federal degree, new CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has signaled a friendlier approach, directing company workers to withdraw a proposed rule that will have banned prediction trades on sports activities and politics. But on the state degree, significantly in New York, the image is extra sophisticated.
These firms are interesting to prospects who might by no means have thought-about utilizing a prediction market whereas additionally demonstrating group funding in a state the place regulators have put them on discover. The Rangers partnership, the NYSE/ICE and Dow Jones deal, and now the grocery giveaways all assist normalize prediction markets as reliable individuals in New York’s civic and business life.
Polymarket and Kalshi determined to put money into their future, and a few New Yorkers obtained some free meals. Win-win? We’ll have to attend and see how regulators reply.
Who says there’s no such factor as a free lunch anymore?
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