Prediction Markets Post Fast Growth To $30B, With A1 Research Citing Clear Path To Multi‑Sector Expansion
A1 Research, a crypto‑native analytics agency, has revealed a brand new report named “Prediction Markets: The Path to $1 Trillion and What Needs to Happen Next” inspecting the quick growth of prediction markets, outlining the sector’s accelerating development, the underlying infrastructure developments, and the challenges which will form its subsequent stage.
The examine highlights that prediction markets have expanded from a valuation of $5 billion to $30 billion inside a single 12 months, marking one of the giant will increase recorded within the sector. According to the report, the central query is now not whether or not prediction markets will proceed to develop, however quite the tempo at which the growth will happen and the potential higher restrict of the market.
The evaluation presents a projected path towards a $1 trillion market dimension throughout classes akin to sports activities, monetary hedging, and rising use circumstances, whereas additionally figuring out the infrastructure gaps that have to be addressed for the sector to succeed in that scale.
A1 Research highlights that complete buying and selling quantity in prediction markets rose from roughly $5 billion in 2024 to almost $28–30 billion in 2025, marking one of many quickest 12 months‑over‑12 months will increase recorded within the trade. Early 2026 information exhibits annualized volumes of $43 billion on Kalshi and $38 billion on Polymarket, with weekly exercise constantly ranging between $3.8 billion and $5.3 billion. Combined platform valuations now stand at roughly $20 billion.
The examine attributes the preliminary surge in 2024 to the US presidential election cycle, which introduced prediction markets into mainstream protection and demonstrated their potential to scale. Institutional participation bolstered the development, with Intercontinental Exchange investing $2 billion in Polymarket and main enterprise companies akin to Sequoia Capital, a16z, and Paradigm increasing their publicity. Kalshi’s valuation climbed to $11 billion following a Series E spherical led by Sequoia, whereas Robinhood built-in Kalshi markets into its platform. Coinbase additionally strengthened its place by buying Deribit for $2.9 billion and launching its personal US prediction market product.
Prediction Markets Seen On Path To $1T As New Trading Models And Cross‑Sector Growth Accelerate
The examine additional outlines a framework for the way the sector might finally attain $1 trillion in annual quantity. It argues that prediction markets are positioned to seize parts of a number of current industries quite than dominate a single one. Sports betting, which generates greater than $125 billion in annual income globally, represents a big alternative, with prediction markets doubtlessly capturing 5–10% of digital quantity within the close to time period and as much as 20% over the following decade. Additional development is predicted from monetary occasion‑pushed hedging and rising classes akin to climate, geopolitical danger, and know-how milestone markets.
The report notes that combining conservative seize charges throughout these verticals yields an estimated $85–90 billion in annual quantity, whereas reasonable assumptions and cross‑class merchandise might push the determine towards $150–200 billion. The trillion‑greenback situation, the researchers state, would require broader regulatory readability, institutional adoption, or the emergence of a brand new breakout class.
The examine additionally identifies a number of improvements driving the following section of adoption. Kalshi’s introduction of mixture markets, which surpassed $100 million in quantity throughout their first week, displays rising demand for extra advanced buying and selling constructions.
Meanwhile, new technical fashions purpose to handle the challenges of leverage in binary markets, together with steady settlement programs, quick‑period contracts, and end result‑based mostly buying and selling primitives akin to Hyperliquid’s HIP‑4.
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