PrimeXBT: Is this the start of a Bitcoin bull run? A 2022 signal appeared before the rally
A weekly momentum divergence fashioned on the Bitcoin chart forward of final week’s advance, and the every day studying has since made a transfer final seen in January 2023.
By Jonatan Randin – Senior Market Analyst at PrimeXBT
Bitcoin (BTC) ran from round $64,000 to simply beneath $80,000 inside 4 classes final week. The explanations provided have largely been the apparent ones. On 19 August the US Treasury stated it will at the very least double the most dimension of its long-end liquidity help buyback operations, from $2 billion to at the very least $4 billion per operation, protecting 10 to twenty 12 months and 20 to 30 12 months securities and operating from 9 September by 4 November. Long-dated yields fell. Trump met crypto executives at the White House. The SEC had printed its Regulation Crypto Assets proposal the day before.
All of that’s actual, and all of it landed inside the identical handful of classes.
The weekly chart, although, had been constructing towards one thing for months before any of it.
The divergence
Through the first half of 2026, Bitcoin saved making decrease lows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) didn’t comply with. It made larger lows as a substitute.
RSI tracks the momentum behind a transfer moderately than the transfer itself, so a hole of that sort can point out promoting stress draining away whereas value continues to be technically falling. Traders name it a bullish divergence.
On a 15-minute chart these are all over the place and imply little or no. On the weekly, the place every candle covers a full seven days of buying and selling, they flip up hardly ever.
The final one which regarded like this ran by the second half of 2022, into the bear market low.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) weekly, log scale, with RSI. Price made decrease lows into late 2022 and once more into mid-2026, whereas RSI made larger lows on each events. Source: TradingView
The timing of this is vital. The divergence was already on the chart before the Treasury announcement, before the White House assembly, and before the brief liquidations.
A transfer of that dimension usually wants a catalyst, and final week provided a number of. But catalysts land into situations. The identical headlines arriving into a market the place momentum was nonetheless deteriorating may probably have produced a a lot smaller response.
The every day chart is doing one thing rarer
Through mid-August the every day RSI sat in the low 40s whereas value went sideways in a tight vary. Within a handful of classes it was above 80, peaking near 90.
Roughly 40 factors of journey in beneath a week.
Now the comparability. December 2022: every day RSI in the low 40s, value compressed, volatility gone. By mid-January 2023 it had reached 87.40.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) every day with RSI. Late 2022 into January 2023 on the left, August 2026 on the proper. Source: TradingView
Side by aspect, the two are near interchangeable. A lengthy quiet base, then a vertical enlargement in each value and momentum.
None of which is a value goal. An overbought RSI is just not a promote signal by itself, and momentum can keep stretched for weeks as soon as a pattern is correctly underway. Plenty of merchants have shorted an 80 studying and regretted it.
What might be stated is that traditionally, an excessive transfer of this form in RSI has in some circumstances marked the start of a new pattern. Not reliably, and never on any schedule a dealer may plan round. But when momentum covers most of its vary inside a week, the market is just not behaving the manner it was a fortnight earlier.
The circulate knowledge
The stronger proof for the constructive case is just not technical in any respect.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs took roughly $1.92 billion over the 5 classes to 21 August, their greatest week of 2026 and their largest since October 2025, in accordance with SoSoValue. Ethereum (ETH) funds added $697.2 million, taking the mixed consumption to $2.6 billion. Both classes noticed inflows on all 5 days, reversing a $392 million outflow the week before.
Bitcoin additionally cleared its 200-day shifting common, then sitting close to $69,000, for the first time in 9 months.
Short protecting has a pure finish level. Once the bearish positions are gone, that bid goes with them. ETF subscriptions are new cash, and will probably show extra sturdy.
One week settles nothing. Even after that consumption, Bitcoin ETFs are nonetheless carrying roughly $2.9 billion of internet outflows throughout 2026 as a complete. Ecoinometrics’ circulate mannequin at present places Bitcoin in a supported vary of roughly $67,000 to $78,000, with truthful worth close to $72,000, which leaves the present value at the prime of what flows alone would possibly justify.
The weekend was additionally messy. CoinGlass knowledge confirmed open curiosity in Bitcoin futures down 2.65% on Sunday, with funding close to the 0.01% baseline, which may recommend leverage clearing out moderately than reloading.
The divergence stays legitimate for so long as value holds above the low that fashioned it. Beyond that, the extra helpful factor to observe this week is whether or not the ETF bid returns as soon as the creation channel reopens.
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About PrimeXBT
PrimeXBT is a international multi-asset dealer and crypto asset service supplier trusted by merchants in additional than 150 nations. The platform bridges conventional and digital markets inside one built-in atmosphere, redefining versatility and innovation in on-line buying and selling. Clients can entry Forex, CFDs on indices, commodities, shares, crypto, and Crypto Futures, in addition to purchase, retailer and change cryptocurrencies. This unified expertise extends throughout each the native PXTrader 2.0 platform and MetaTrader 5, supported by superior risk-management instruments and a big selection of funding choices in crypto, fiat and native cost strategies. Since 2018, PrimeXBT has targeted on empowering merchants by broad multi-asset entry, truthful and clear situations, professional-grade expertise and devoted human help. By combining experience, belief and a client-first method, PrimeXBT units a benchmark of excellence in the monetary business and gives merchants with the instruments they should commerce, develop and succeed with confidence.
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