Robinhood Q4 Earnings Show Prediction Markets Gaining Structural Importance

Robinhood closed out 2025 with document revenues and buying and selling volumes. But prediction markets continued to be one of many firm’s most strategic development areas.

In its Q4 and full-year 2025 shareholder letter, Robinhood reported that 8.5 billion occasion contracts had been traded within the fourth quarter alone. This contributed to greater than 12 billion occasion contracts traded throughout 2025.

Preliminary January knowledge confirmed an additional 3.4 billion occasion contracts traded, suggesting that engagement is carrying into 2026 reasonably than fading after peak seasonal occasions.

CEO Vlad Tenev strengthened the path within the earnings launch, stating, “Our imaginative and prescient hasn’t modified: we’re constructing the Financial SuperApp.”

That locations prediction markets alongside equities, choices, retirement accounts, and banking as foundational parts of Robinhood’s long-term product improvement reasonably than experimental add-ons.

Robinhood Markets has simply launched monetary outcomes for the fourth quarter and full yr of 2025.

Check out the highlights from @vladtenev under, and catch our earnings name stay at: https://t.co/W92tO1JASh pic.twitter.com/x8sdd3bibP— Robinhood (@RobinhoodApp) February 10, 2026

Record income as buying and selling combine shifts

Robinhood recorded $1.28 billion in complete internet income for Q4, up 27% year-over-year, whereas full-year income elevated by 52% to $4.5 billion. Net revenue for the quarter got here in at $605 million, and complete platform belongings rose 68% year-over-year to $324 billion.

Transaction-based income reached $776 million in Q4. Options income rose 41% year-over-year, and equities income elevated 54%, whereas crypto income declined 38%.

The distinction is telling. As crypto buying and selling cooled, occasion contracts reached document volumes. Prediction markets look like offsetting a part of the engagement hole left by weaker crypto exercise, providing frequent, event-driven alternatives that don’t rely solely on asset worth volatility.

Robinhood said that product enlargement “led by Prediction Markets” helped improve momentum with lively merchants. In December, the corporate hosted “Robinhood Presents: YES/NO,” saying new options for its Prediction Markets Hub, together with preset and customized combos and participant contracts.

The firm has additionally taken steps to institutionalize the class. Through its three way partnership Rothera LLC, fashioned with Susquehanna International Group, Robinhood acquired MIAXdx in January 2026 to construct an unbiased, CFTC-licensed alternate and clearinghouse devoted to occasion contracts.

Distribution stays Robinhood’s edge

Competition in prediction markets is intensifying. Regulated exchanges similar to Kalshi are increasing their institutional footprint, Coinbase has launched nationwide prediction markets entry, and platforms like Polymarket proceed to dominate onchain liquidity.

Robinhood’s benefit lies in distribution. The platform ended the yr with 27 million funded prospects and 28.4 million funding accounts, permitting it to floor occasion contracts to an present retail base with out requiring migration to a brand new platform.

For lively merchants accustomed to short-dated choices or high-frequency positioning, binary occasion contracts characterize a pure behavioral extension reasonably than a brand new buying and selling paradigm.

Market response and investor sentiment

CFO Shiv Verma described 2025 as “a document yr” on X, writing that the corporate “shipped unbelievable merchandise” and drove “one other yr of worthwhile development for shareholders,” whereas expressing confidence heading into 2026.

Investor response was blended within the quick time period, with some market individuals specializing in income comparisons. However, others seen the outcomes as structurally sturdy. One consumer, Hamid, wrote on X that the market usually focuses on short-term estimates whereas Robinhood “simply retains turning into a greater and greater firm, quarter after quarter,” suggesting the corporate might maintain elevated development charges.

While Robinhood shares have confronted strain alongside crypto-linked equities in early 2026, internally the corporate is leaning into prediction markets as a sturdy engagement engine.

The Q4 report signifies that occasion contracts are not peripheral to Robinhood’s technique. As the corporate pushes towards its imaginative and prescient of a “Financial SuperApp,” prediction markets are more and more positioned as a central pillar of its subsequent development section.

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