Shutdown Hopes, Trump Dividend Talk Lift Bitcoin to $106K

Bitcoin’s worth plunged at the beginning of the week. However, it considerably recovered losses by way of a weekend rebound, stabilizing close to $106,000 mark. The weekly decline, which had approached -10%, in the end closed at -4.99%.

The rebound was pushed by information of an imminent finish to the US government shutdown and a social media put up from President Trump.

‘Big Short’ Rumors Triggered Initial Plunge

The preliminary drop was sparked by deteriorating sentiment within the US inventory market. On Tuesday, information broke that famous bear Michael Burry had established a $1.2 billion quick place in AI shares like Nvidia (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR). This information inspired skeptical buyers to promote, main to declines throughout all three main US inventory indexes.

Despite the elemental concern mendacity with AI equities, the crypto sector noticed a steeper decline: BTC fell roughly 5% that day, whereas altcoins recorded even greater losses.

On-chain analysts attributed the sharp drop to an exodus of institutional buyers. Major gamers had been reducing crypto positions for the reason that October 10 “Black Friday” crash. Subsequently, the Tuesday inventory market turbulence brought about the already fragile supply-demand steadiness to collapse.

The market imbalance worsened rapidly, pushing Bitcoin under the psychological $100,000 assist on Wednesday, to a low of $99,000.

365-Day MA Holds as Critical Support

Analysts watched nervously, understanding an extra drop would break the 365-day Moving Average (MA) line—a essential inflection level usually marking the beginning of a bear market.

Fortunately, the present drop didn’t breach this line. Bitcoin discovered assist and rebounded, efficiently holding the 365-day MA because it had throughout two earlier crises: the August 2024 Yen carry-trade unwinding and the April 2025 tariff disaster.

Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest crypto, plummeted to $3,100 on Wednesday. However, it recovered alongside Bitcoin, rising above the $3,600 degree by Sunday, although its weekly loss stood at -6.55%.

Shutdown Resolution Becomes the Primary Catalyst

During the extended stoop, analysts actively hoped for the top of the month-long US authorities shutdown. This was as a result of the shutdown was broadly believed to be reducing market liquidity by halting authorities spending.

The shutdown has resulted in roughly 750,000 federal workers being furloughed and a virtually 10% surge in flight delays due to pay suspensions for air site visitors controllers. Ultimately, this has disrupted important assist applications.

Raoul Pal, founding father of RealVision, argued that the halt in US fiscal coverage was worsening market liquidity, with the crypto sector bearing the brunt. He predicted the shutdown’s decision could be a strong potential catalyst for a bullish reversal.

This perception was validated on Sunday when Senate Majority Leader John Thune hinted at the potential for ending the shutdown. The information instantly spurred a Bitcoin rally. Thune’s feedback brought about the betting market on Polymarket to shift drastically; the probably finish date for the shutdown moved from November twentieth to November eleventh.

Trump’s Dividend Talk Fuels Buy Impulse

Simultaneously, a social media post from President Trump offered one other catalyst. He wrote: “People which might be towards Tariffs are FOOLS!…A dividend of at the least $2000 an individual (not together with high revenue individuals!)”

The prospect of direct money funds to residents could possibly be channeled into inventory or crypto purchases. This chance instantly pushed Bitcoin from the $103,000 vary to over $105,000.

The Week Ahead: Politics and the Fed

The most important issue this week will likely be whether or not the US authorities shutdown ends rapidly. Initial procedural vote in Congress is anticipated on Tuesday. As the shutdown has suspended most US macro information assortment for over a month, the affect of those figures will likely be restricted for now.

Attention stays mounted on the potential for an extra Fed fee minimize within the December FOMC assembly. Several influential Fed officers are scheduled to converse this week, together with:

• On Monday, Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed President) and Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed President),
• On Wednesday, John Williams (New York Fed President), Anna Paulson (Philadelphia Fed President), Raphael Bostic, Chris Waller, Stephen Miran, and Susan Collins.

The content material of those speeches is anticipated to affect Bitcoin volatility considerably.

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