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Solana Could Reach $1,600+ Within Five Years, Bitwise CIO Says

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Matt Hougan, the chief funding officer at Bitwise Asset Management, stated he thinks Solana might plausibly change into a trillion-dollar asset inside 5 years—an end result that may roughly translate right into a ~$1,600 SOL value on a easy market-cap-per-token foundation, relying on circulating provide.

Hougan made the remarks on the Jan. 29 episode of When Shift Happens, framing his Solana view by way of what he known as a “two methods to win” setup: progress within the addressable market (stablecoins and tokenized belongings), plus an growing share captured by Solana versus competing networks.

Why Solana Could Hit $1,600+ Within 5 Years

Hougan argued that the “infrastructure market” for stablecoins and tokenization is increasing shortly sufficient that enormous, liquid L1s must be valued much less like area of interest crypto experiments and extra like enabling rails for conventional finance. “The US Secretary of Treasury expects the stablecoin market to 12x over the following 4 years,” he stated, including that Larry Fink has described a future the place “each asset, each fund, ETF, inventory, bond, actual property might be tokenized.”

From there, his Solana thesis leaned closely on relative positioning. Ethereum stays the incumbent in stablecoins and tokenization, Hougan stated, however Solana is “a legit competitor with an fascinating technological differentiation,” and crucially “it’s terribly straightforward to make use of and the neighborhood has a ship first perspective.”

That usability level, in his view, is underpriced by buyers who concentrate on benchmark-style comparisons. “I believe ease of use is a killer app that’s underrated by buyers,” Hougan stated. “Investors like to speak about throughput they usually like to speak… TPS… who cares about this? …For an finish consumer who’s buying and selling, who’s on-ramping, ease of use is the killer app. And Solana is simply straightforward to make use of, simply useless straightforward to make use of.”

Hougan additionally acknowledged a standard investor blind spot: token provide dynamics can separate value motion from market cap progress. He famous that Solana’s market worth can rise meaningfully even when the token value revisits prior highs, and steered staking yield partially offsets dilution, citing “roughly like 7% a yr.”

Another thread within the dialogue was how regulation formed institutional conduct. Hougan stated Solana’s footprint in stablecoins and tokenization was constrained throughout the prior US regulatory environment, arguing that establishments “couldn’t construct on Solana” in the event that they believed it sat “outdoors of the regulatory perimeter.” With that cloud lifting, he stated, mandates are beginning to broaden.

He additionally described why the ETF wrapper issues extra for a smaller asset. “You put slightly little bit of inflows into an ETF package deal they usually’re chasing a comparatively small provide of Solana,” Hougan stated. “It’s probably the greatest setups for an asset that I’ve ever seen as a result of you may have this small constrained dimension, you may have vital institutional demand, you may have stablecoins and tokenization… you place all that collectively and it looks as if a winner.”

Still, he prevented laborious value targets and as an alternative stayed in market-cap phrases. “In 5 years I believe it might be a trillion greenback asset. I believe that’s comparatively straightforward to think about,” he stated. “It’s laborious to offer a exact goal as a result of it relies on the tempo of progress on stablecoins and tokenization. It relies on whether or not Congress passes the Clarity Act. It relies on the kind of crypto market cycles.”

On easy market-cap math, a $1 trillion Solana valuation implies a four-figure token value relying on provide. The relationship is simple: token value equals market cap divided by provide. Using Solana’s circulating provide of roughly 566 million SOL, a $1 trillion market cap works out to about $1,766 per SOL ($1,000,000,000,000 ÷ 566,000,000).

If you as an alternative use a totally diluted-style denominator nearer to 619 million SOL, the identical $1 trillion market cap implies roughly $1,615 per SOL ($1,000,000,000,000 ÷ 619,000,000). In different phrases, Hougan’s “trillion-dollar asset” framing maps to one thing just like the mid-$1,000s per token on in the present day’s provide assumptions, with the precise quantity transferring as provide adjustments.

Notably, Hougan’s Solana name sat alongside a broader macro narrative he returned to repeatedly: monetary debasement pushing buyers towards scarce and non-sovereign shops of worth. On Bitcoin, he argued the “two methods to win” are the store-of-value market increasing and Bitcoin taking share from gold, an arc he stated might drive multi-million-dollar BTC over a long time if the final 10–15 years of adoption developments persist.

For Solana, the equal is much less about being “digital gold” and extra about turning into a main venue for stablecoin flows and tokenized securities. If these rails scale and if Solana continues gaining share as a high-velocity, institution-friendly community, Hougan’s trillion-dollar state of affairs implies the market continues to be pricing the chance too conservatively.

At press time, SOL traded at $115.40.

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