Solana’s public attack on Starknet exposes how billions in “mercenary” volume are artificially pumping network valuations right now
Solana’s verified X account fired a shot on Jan. 14: “Starknet has 8 each day energetic customers, 10 each day transactions, and nonetheless someway has a 1b MC and 15b FDV[…] Send it straight to 0.”
The information used in the ‘sh*tpost’ seems to hint again to an April 2024 snapshot, because the FDV determine was unsuitable. Current CryptoSlate information reveals Starknet’s absolutely diluted valuation round $900 million, not $15 billion.
While overshooting the valuation is one factor, the truth that Solana’s official account referred to as for customers to “ship [Starknet] straight to 0” actually highlights the place the trade is in 2026. A venture that’s on the lookout for serious institutional money to maneuver on chain is actively calling for the downfall of a competitor chain (albeit via an ‘intern’ managed social media account).
Still, the broader query holds: how do you measure the hole between what a network is value and what it really does?
Valuation is not utilization, however some networks value like they’ve each.
The actual problem lies in separating what’s straightforward to inflate, resembling notional perpetual futures volume and deal with exercise, from what’s tougher to pretend: payment strain measured via REV (Real Economic Value), which mixes chain charges and MEV ideas that customers really pay for execution precedence.
The metric stack that issues
Market cap is split by circulating provide, whereas FDV is split by complete provide.
Activity metrics are cut up into spot DEX volume measuring on-chain swaps and perpetual futures volume, which DefiLlama defines as notional traded volume, together with leverage.
A dealer opening a $100,000 place with a $10,000 margin counts the complete $100,000 towards volume, making perp numbers massive by design and susceptible to inflation via zero-fee buying and selling or factors applications that reward exercise no matter real demand.
REV cuts via this noise by measuring what customers really pay to make use of a sequence.
DefiLlama defines it as chain charges plus MEV ideas. High volume with low REV reveals notional churn pushed by incentives reasonably than natural financial exercise.
Using mid-January 2026 information, we pulled 30-day spot DEX volume and 30-day perp volume for the highest 50 blockchain infrastructures ranked by market cap on CoinGecko.
Solana reveals $121.8 billion in spot and $32.4 billion in perps, totaling $154.2 billion in mixed buying and selling exercise in opposition to an FDV of $90.7 billion for a ratio of 0.59.
The network’s speculative worth sits round half of 1 month’s buying and selling exercise, and its volume is distributed throughout dozens of DEXs, together with Jupiter, Raydium, and Orca, whereas posting each day REV constantly above $1 million, with tens of millions of energetic addresses processing tens of millions of transactions.
Arbitrum reveals $15 billion in spot and $37.8 billion in perps, totaling $52.8 billion in opposition to an FDV of $2.2 billion for a ratio of 0.04.
That seems to be compelling till you verify focus: Variational, a single perpetual alternate, accounts for $24.9 billion of that perp volume, representing roughly 66% of the chain’s perpetual buying and selling.
Variational launched a factors program on Dec. 17, with documentation stating that the VAR token is not stay but and that roughly 50% of the availability is earmarked for group distribution.
That’s textbook “mercenary volume,” the place merchants stack factors forward of a token launch and should reassess as soon as rewards finish, which means Arbitrum’s month-to-month volume might drop by $20 billion if Variational’s exercise normalizes post-airdrop. However, its spot DEX volume and $3 billion TVL would stay intact.
Starknet tells a fair sharper story with $208 million in spot however $36.4 billion in perps, totaling $36.6 billion in opposition to an FDV of $900 million for a ratio of 0.025.
Extended, a single perpetual alternate, accounts for primarily all of Starknet’s perp volume in near-total dominance whereas working an ongoing factors program launched in April 2025 with weekly distributions, referral incentives, and payment reductions tied to volume.
The actual sign comes from Starknet’s 30-day chain charges sitting round $186,293 based on DefiLlama, a tiny determine relative to $36.4 billion in month-to-month notional perp volume that reveals high notional exercise with out corresponding payment strain pushed by incentives reasonably than real financial demand.
Optimism reveals $8.2 billion in spot and $6.5 billion in perps, totaling $14.7 billion, in opposition to an FDV of $8 billion, for a ratio of 0.54, with volume distributed throughout a number of venues reasonably than concentrated in single incentivized protocols.
Both Optimism and Arbitrum publish significant each day REV usually above $500,000 and infrequently exceeding $1 million throughout high-activity intervals, demonstrating that customers pay for blockspace and execution precedence past simply farming factors.
Avalanche reveals $4.1 billion in spot with minimal perps in opposition to an FDV of $12 billion for a ratio round 3x. In comparability, Polkadot reveals a mixed market cap of beneath $1 billion in opposition to an FDV of around $10 billion, for a ratio above 10x.
Additionally, Algorand carries an FDV close to $8 billion, with minimal exercise, ensuing in ratios in the double digits, as networks are priced for ecosystems that have not scaled or have seen utilization migrate elsewhere.
Low ratios sign sturdiness questions, not ensures
A low FDV-to-volume ratio does not routinely sign undervaluation or shopping for alternative however reasonably poses a sturdiness query: both valuation rises as a result of volume proves sticky and monetizable, or volume mean-reverts when incentives fade and mercenary capital strikes on.
The reply relies upon on whether or not the exercise is natural or incentive-driven and whether or not it is concentrated or distributed throughout a number of venues and use circumstances.
Arbitrum’s 0.04 ratio adjustments basically if over 60% of its perp volume tied to a pre-token factors program disappears after Variational’s airdrop. However, this would not essentially injury its broader ecosystem, given substantial spot DEX volume and TVL exceeding $3 billion.
Starknet’s 0.025 ratio faces a fair sharper check given Extended’s full dominance and specific farming incentives with weekly distributions.
Whether volume persists after the factors season ends will decide if the ratio displays real alternative or a short lived distortion that collapses when incentives cease flowing, particularly given its market cap of round $454 million with solely 50.43% of provide unlocked.
Solana’s 0.59 ratio sits greater however displays volume distributed across dozens of venues, with each day REV constantly exceeding that of most layer-2 blockchains, indicating sustained natural demand throughout a number of product classes reasonably than dependence on any single incentivized protocol.
REV offers the clearest sign for separating actual demand from churn. If a sequence posts $50 billion in month-to-month perp volume however collects $10,000 in each day charges, the volume drives level accumulation reasonably than financial demand. In distinction, networks that monetize throughput present it in payment information that scales with exercise ranges.
Concentration serves as a key ahead indicator as a result of when greater than 50% of a sequence’s volume ties to a single venue, that is a single protocol’s cycle reasonably than broad ecosystem adoption.
When that protocol’s incentives finish, or customers migrate to raised execution elsewhere, volume metrics compress quickly. Points applications create short-term surges that distort metrics for months till the actual check arrives after the token launch, when farmers reassess execution high quality and payment construction with out extra incentives.
Solana reveals more healthy patterns with volume distributed throughout main DEXs and perp exercise cut up between a number of venues, suggesting real product-market match.
Cosmos (ATOM) presents a structural edge case with FDV close to $4 billion, however ecosystem exercise is occurring on app-chains like Osmosis and dYdX reasonably than the hub itself.
This implies that low DEX and perp volume do not seize precise utility centered on interchain communication and shared safety infrastructure, the place token worth derives from coordination reasonably than direct buying and selling throughput.
Solana’s tweet was theater with demonstrably unsuitable numbers, however the query it raised about when valuation displays what networks do versus what they could do stays value analyzing systematically.
DEX volume, perp volume, REV, and venue focus present quantifiable alerts that separate networks priced for present site visitors from these priced for site visitors they’re ready on or for site visitors that may disappear solely when factors cease flowing.
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