Something Else Is Moving Bitcoin — Here’s What The Charts Reveal
Bitcoin’s newest pullback has little to do with crypto-native flows and all the pieces to do with the greenback, in response to chief crypto analyst at Real Vision Jamie Coutts.
Sharing two charts on X, Coutts argued {that a} rebound within the US Dollar Index (DXY) is briefly tightening world liquidity and pressuring danger property throughout the board. “Bitcoin’s dip isn’t mysterious — it’s macro,” he wrote.
Why Is Bitcoin Down?
“The greenback’s rebound is tightening world liquidity. DXY is retesting 100–101 — a key resistance and pure mean-reversion zone after one of many sharpest declines in a long time in 1H25. Positioning had turn out to be crowded on the brief aspect, so a bounce was at all times possible. The actual query: is that this the beginning of a brand new greenback cycle or simply the setup for the subsequent leg decrease? Base case: liquidity tailwinds and an enhancing business cycle maintain the outlook for danger property bullish into mid-2026,” he added.
The first chart he shared juxtaposes the USD COT Index with the US Dollar Index. After a chronic slide in 1H25, speculative positioning flipped aggressively in opposition to the greenback, with the COT index sinking into damaging territory in mid-2025.
That capitulative stance created fertile circumstances for a counter-trend squeeze. The worth panel exhibits DXY clawing again towards the 100-101 space—a zone that traces up with prior congestion and the underside of this yr’s breakdown—whereas the COT bars stay beneath zero, per short-covering dynamics quite than a completely rebuilt long-dollar consensus.
Coutts’ second chart overlays the Global Liquidity Index with the inverse of DXY. The collection observe one another intently: when the greenback weakens (inverse DXY rises), the worldwide liquidity proxy rises too, traditionally coinciding with stronger efficiency for duration-sensitive danger property similar to equities and crypto.
Over latest weeks, the white liquidity line has rolled over modestly because the blue inverse-DXY line has accomplished the identical, illustrating the transmission mechanism Coutts highlights: a firmer greenback equals tighter world greenback liquidity on the margin, which in flip dents danger urge for food and crypto beta.
What This Means For BTC Price
Framed this manner, Bitcoin’s slip is an easy perform of FX imply reversion and futures positioning, not a breakdown in crypto’s structural flows. The “crowded brief” in greenback futures telegraphed vulnerability to a bounce, and the mean-reversion goal round 100–101 supplied a logical waypoint for that transfer.
If DXY stalls and resumes decrease from that band—per the broader 2025 downtrend—liquidity conditions would possible ease once more, restoring the bid below high-beta property. If, as a substitute, the index pushes via and holds above that zone, Bitcoin can be contending with a extra sturdy greenback impulse and a slower return of constructive liquidity momentum.
Coutts’ “base case” stays constructive regardless of the near-term headwind: an enhancing world enterprise cycle and continued liquidity tailwinds into mid-2026. In that framework, Bitcoin’s drawdowns on greenback power look cyclical, not secular. The instant pivot level sits in plain view on his charts: the DXY’s 100–101 retest, born from stretched speculative shorts and traditional imply reversion, is dictating BTC’s temperature for now.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $121,703.
