SpaceX IPO Turns Tesla Merger Talk Into a Core Wall Street Thesis
Wolfe Research says a SpaceX and Tesla merger has moved into the Wall Street mainstream. Some buyers now deal with a future mixture as their major purpose for proudly owning TSLA inventory.
Analyst Emmanuel Rosner detailed the thesis in a June 9 shopper notice. The name lands two days earlier than Elon Musk’s rocket agency costs the biggest preliminary public providing (IPO) in historical past.
Why the SpaceX Tesla Merger Thesis Is Gaining Ground
SpaceX plans to promote 555.6 million shares at a mounted $135 apiece, based on StreetInsider. The deal would elevate a file $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation.
Nasdaq buying and selling begins June 12 under the ticker SPCX.
The providing is all-primary, and Musk should hold his shares for 366 days after the debut. Demand already outstrips provide.
The providing is nicely oversubscribed, with some establishments bidding for $10 billion or extra. Banks will close order books Wednesday, with reported demand close to $150 billion.
Rosner identifies three forces behind the merger thesis:
- A public SpaceX fingers Musk liquid inventory forex.
- A hypothetical all-stock deal would push Musk’s voting management nicely above 50%.
- A mixed firm would pair Tesla’s driving information with SpaceX’s compute buildout and a bigger capital base.
SpaceX already absorbed Musk’s AI startup xAI earlier this yr, a deal valuing the rocket maker at $1 trillion.
“The potential for an eventual SpaceX / Tesla merger has more and more moved into the mainstream, with some now making it their major thesis for proudly owning the TSLA inventory,” Rosner wrote within the agency’s newest notice, citing discussions with institutional buyers.
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Bitcoin Sits Inside the Record Listing
The IPO carries direct crypto weight too. SpaceX’s S-1 submitting disclosed 18,712 Bitcoin (BTC) purchased for roughly $661 million in 2021, close to $35,324 per coin.
The submitting valued the place at $1.29 billion as of March 31. That tops the roughly 11,509 BTC held by Tesla within the corporate bitcoin treasury rankings.
Crypto merchants are pricing the debut early. Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken record SPCX pre-IPO perpetual futures, as crypto markets price SpaceX earlier than its shares record.
ProfessionalShares plans to launch a 2x each day leveraged SpaceX ETF on itemizing day itself.
Hurdles Push Any Deal Beyond Mid-2027
Wolfe flags critical obstacles, nonetheless.
- Tesla would possible pay a massive premium, and different SpaceX shareholders may object.
Tesla’s China operations add regulatory problems. The agency sees completion as unlikely earlier than mid-2027 on the earliest.
- Valuation provides one other warning.
SpaceX booked $18.67 billion in income in 2025 however posted a $4.94 billion web loss.
Morningstar pegged truthful worth at $780 billion, and a few analysts argue the float is worth half the valuation.
Near time period, Rosner argues merger anticipation could give Tesla shares draw back help.
However, he stresses that robotaxi and Optimus supply nonetheless decides whether or not the inventory finds momentum.
The providing costs on June 11. Early SPCX buying and selling could present whether or not buyers assign a actual merger premium or deal with the concept as narrative gas.
Either reply will form expectations for what comes after SpaceX goes public.
Read Also:
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- 6 Questions Investors Must Ask as Elon Musk Locks 100% SpaceX Shares Before IPO
- 3 Massive Things That Could Happen After SpaceX Goes Public in June 2026
- 5 Ways Crypto Markets Are Pricing SpaceX Before Wall Street Can
- 10 Surprising Facts About Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion SpaceX IPO
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