Standard Chartered’s Cautious Bitcoin Price Prediction Makes Sense — Why $50,000 Still Fits
Bitcoin value stays below strain, down round 1.2% over the previous 24 hours and buying and selling near $66,000 at press time. While short-term rebounds proceed to seem, the broader construction nonetheless appears weak.
Now, even main establishments are turning cautious on their Bitcoin value predictions. New on-chain indicators and long-term holders recommend the draw back threat shouldn’t be completed but.
Standard Chartered’s Warning Matches Weak ETF and Institutional Flows
Standard Chartered not too long ago reiterated that Bitcoin could still fall towards $50,000 earlier than any sustained restoration. The financial institution pointed to weakening ETF demand and fading institutional participation as key dangers. When this view is in contrast with present market information, it traces up completely.
On the worth chart, Bitcoin has damaged down from a bear flag structure. A bear flag kinds when costs consolidate after a pointy fall after which resume the downtrend. This sample means that promoting strain stays dominant, even when short-term rebounds seem.
At the identical time, institutional move indicators are weakening. Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, which tracks whether or not massive capital is coming into or leaving the market, has dropped sharply. CMF now appears weaker than it did in the course of the January–April 2025 correction, when Bitcoin fell round 31%.
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This time, the decline is steeper. Bitcoin has already dropped almost 38% from its peak, and CMF has fallen quicker than in early 2025. This confirms that institutional shopping for shouldn’t be returning but. Without sustained inflows from massive traders, rallies battle to carry.
It is value noting that in the course of the April-October 2025 section, when BTC peaked, there have been just a few situations when the CMF fell below the zero line, and that too marginally. But now, the CMF dip appears approach scarier.
This is why Standard Chartered’s warning is smart. The breakdown on the chart and weak ETF-linked flows are telling the identical story. But institutional weak point shouldn’t be the one concern.
On-Chain Profits and Long-Term Holders Still Point to More Downside
Beyond ETFs, on-chain information exhibits that investor confidence stays fragile.
One key indicator is Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL. NUPL measures how a lot revenue or loss holders are sitting on by evaluating present costs with when cash had been final moved.
During the April 2024 rebound, NUPL was close to 0.42. That confirmed minimal unrealized earnings and supported a restoration. Today, NUPL has dropped a lot decrease. It fell to round 0.11 in early February and is now close to 0.17. This means a lot of the leftover earnings from the bull cycle have already been worn out. But this doesn’t verify a backside if the larger image is considered.
History exhibits NUPL can nonetheless fall additional. In March 2023, NUPL dropped to close 0.02 when Bitcoin traded round $20,000. That marked deep capitulation earlier than the following main rally started. Compared to that interval, present NUPL ranges stay comparatively elevated. This suggests the market will not be absolutely washed out but.
Long-term holder habits helps this view. Long-term BTC holders are wallets which have held Bitcoin for multiple yr. These traders normally accumulate throughout main bottoms and assist stabilize costs.
Right now, they’re nonetheless web sellers. In early February 2025, long-term holders lowered holdings by greater than 170,000 BTC. At the height of latest promoting, in February 2026, outflows reached almost 245,000 BTC. This is a heavier distribution than in the course of the January–April 2025 correction.
Back then, demand from long-term holders had already began recovering earlier than costs bounced. Today, that restoration has not appeared. In easy phrases, establishments are cautious, earnings are shrinking, and long-term holders should not stepping in but. This mixture makes a robust rebound unlikely within the close to time period.
Why the $53,000–$48,000 Zone Still Matters on the Bitcoin Price Chart
With fundamentals and on-chain information aligned to the draw back, the Bitcoin price levels now grow to be crucial.
The present bear flag projection factors towards a broad help zone between $53,200 and $48,300. This vary aligns with key Fibonacci retracement ranges.
The midpoint of this zone sits near $50,000, which stays a serious psychological stage. Round numbers typically appeal to robust shopping for and promoting exercise, making them pure magnets throughout corrections. This is why Standard Chartered’s $50,000 view suits the technical construction. It shouldn’t be an arbitrary goal. It sits instantly inside the primary help band.
If promoting strain continues and ETF flows stay weak, Bitcoin may check this area within the coming months. In a deeper risk-off state of affairs, draw back may even lengthen towards $42,400, which matches longer-term breakdown projections and historic help.
For this bearish Bitcoin value prediction to decelerate, BTC would wish to reclaim and maintain above the $72,100 area with robust quantity and renewed institutional inflows. That would sign that demand has returned and that the bear flag has failed. So far, there isn’t any proof of that.
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