State of the Union Odds: Mentions, Attendance, Speech Length at Kalshi and Polymarket
More than $17 million has been wagered on what President Trump will say, who will present up, and how lengthy he’ll speak throughout tonight’s State of the Union tackle. That’s a fraction of the Super Bowl’s billion-dollar weekend, nevertheless it’s the largest political speech occasion prediction markets have ever priced.
It additionally has some of the most uncommon markets. Yes, individuals are wagering actual cash on whether or not Trump will take a sip of water throughout the speech (19% say sure), whether or not anybody shall be kicked out of the chamber (43%), and even bingo.
Kalshi has the deeper market choice with greater than $13 million in quantity throughout 4 main classes: what Trump will say, who he’ll point out by identify, attendance, and speech length. Polymarket has greater than $4 million throughout 22 markets, together with classes Kalshi doesn’t supply.
Trump speaks at 9 p.m. ET earlier than a joint session of Congress. It’s his first formal State of the Union of his second time period and comes throughout a politically charged stretch: a Supreme Court ruling towards elements of his tariff coverage, approval rankings close to their second-term lows, and a string of Democratic wins since his final tackle to Congress.
New customers can nonetheless declare the $10 Kalshi promo utilizing the sign-up code DEFI.
2026 State of the Union odds board
Leading consequence per market · Feb. 24, 2026
| Market | Leading consequence | Prob | Venues | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mention markets | ||||
| What will Trump say? | “Trillion” | 93% | Kalshi, Polymarket | $7.48M |
| Who will Trump point out? | Putin | 55% | Kalshi | $1.37M |
| Who will Trump identify? | Biden | 95% | Polymarket | $523K |
| What locations will Trump point out? | Iran | 96% | Polymarket | $507K |
| What will Trump say first? | “America / American” | 88% | Polymarket | $65K |
| Attendance | ||||
| Who will attend? | Erika Kirk | 99% | Kalshi, Polymarket | $5.66M |
| Trending attendance | Rep. Al Green (D-TX) | 64% | Kalshi | — |
| Trending attendance | Barron Trump | 70% | Kalshi, Polymarket | — |
| Will all Trump youngsters attend? | Yes (71% Okay / 50% P) | 50–71% | Kalshi, Polymarket | $92K |
| Speech & ceremony | ||||
| Speech length | Over 100 minutes | 78% | Kalshi, Polymarket | $1.05M |
| Over 80 minutes? | — | 96% | Polymarket | — |
| Trump-Vance handshake | Under 2 seconds | 80% | Polymarket | $24K |
| Will the SOTU be delayed? | No | 99% | Polymarket | $62K |
| Novelty & leisure | ||||
| JD Vance clapping rely | 100+ | 66% | Polymarket | $176K |
| Who will applaud? | Hakeem Jeffries | 81% | Polymarket | $73K |
| Trump nicknames used | “Green New Scam” | 53% | Polymarket | $49K |
| Trump tie shade | Other | 68% | Polymarket | $56K |
| # of viewers | Under 35 million | 65% | Polymarket | $34K |
| SOTU bingo playing cards (3 playing cards) | — | — | Polymarket | $34K |
| Anyone kicked out? | Yes | 43% | Polymarket | $15K |
| Will Trump drink water? | No | 81% | Polymarket | $13K |
| What time will speech start? | 9–9:15 PM ET | 66% | Polymarket | $11K |
| Longest applause length | — | — | Polymarket | $2K |
Source: DeFi Rate · Aggregated from Kalshi & Polymarket · Use Kalshi Code DEFI → $10 free
Mention markets are the foremost occasion
If the Super Bowl proved something, it’s that point out markets drive outsized engagement relative to their headline significance. The similar sample is repeating right here.
Kalshi has 45 key phrases and phrases obtainable for the SOTU tackle, with greater than half sitting above 50% implied chance. Over $6.5 million has traded on the Kalshi “What will Trump say?” market alone. The near-locks embody “trillion” at 93%, “Trump” at 90%, “hockey” at 89%, “AI / Artificial Intelligence” at 88%, “fraud” at 88%, and “Olympics / World Cup” at 88%.
A separate Kalshi market — “Who will Trump point out?” — has drawn $1.4 million in quantity throughout particular person names. Putin leads at 55%, adopted by Bessent at 53% and Witkoff at 51%. Bibi / Netanyahu is at 26%, Elon / Musk at 23%, and Epstein at 10%.
The Olympics and World Cup market surged after Trump invited the US males’s hockey group, which received gold at the Winter Olympics, to attend the speech. The girls’s group declined the invitation, which might immediate Trump to deal with the snub immediately. “ICE / National Guard” sits at 86%, with the immigration enforcement narrative dominating the present information cycle. “Radical left” sits at 70%, which appears to be like low given the Supreme Court tariff ruling and Trump’s tendency to border judicial opposition in partisan phrases.
On Polymarket, point out markets have drawn $2 million throughout three classes: what Trump will say ($1 million), who he’ll identify ($523,000 with Biden main at 95%), and what locations he’ll point out ($507,000 with Iran main at 96%). The near-certainty guess on the “say” market is that Trump will say “America” or “American” greater than 25 occasions, priced at 96%. “MAGA” or “Make America Great Again” is at 87%, whereas “hottest” — probably referencing Trump’s financial framing — sits at 85%.
“Epstein” is priced at simply 10% on Kalshi and 14% on Polymarket, implying a roughly 7–10x return if it hits.
Attendance has drawn $5.7 million in mixed quantity
The visitor checklist for a Trump State of the Union is a prediction market in itself. Kalshi has $4.85 million in attendance quantity throughout 46 particular person markets, whereas Polymarket has attracted $805,000 with $214,000 traded immediately alone.
Erika Kirk tops the Polymarket checklist at 99%. On Kalshi, Ilhan Omar, John Fetterman, Pete Hegseth, and Scott Bessent are at 98%, with Susan Collins and Jack Hughes (the hockey group captain invited by Trump) at 97%. On the different finish, confirmed boycotters like Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) are priced beneath 1%.
The tradeable vary is the place it will get attention-grabbing. Barron Trump has surged to 70% on Kalshi, up 16 factors in a day. Rep. Al Green (D-TX), who was ejected from the chamber throughout Trump’s joint session final March for heckling, has climbed to 64% — the market is leaning towards a return look. George Santos, the expelled congressman turned Trump ally, has jumped to 58%. Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition chief, has dropped to 31% on Kalshi after earlier buying and selling close to 50%.
A separate market costs the chance that each one 5 of Trump’s youngsters — Ivanka, Don Jr., Eric, Tiffany, and Barron — will attend at 71% on Kalshi and 50% on Polymarket, with $92,000 in mixed quantity. That’s a pointy transfer from earlier in the week when it traded as little as 35%. Ivanka has surged to 95% and Tiffany to 94%, whereas Jared Kushner sits at 91% regardless of each having returned to the personal sector after Trump’s first time period.
Several Democrats are planning counter-programming. Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) and Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-TX) will maintain a rally on the National Mall known as the “People’s State of the Union” throughout the tackle.
Expect Trump to go lengthy
Both platforms now agree the speech will probably run previous 100 minutes. Polymarket provides it 78% odds with $477,000 in quantity — one of its most lively SOTU markets. A second Polymarket market (“Will the SOTU be __ minutes?”) has $190,000 in quantity and costs 80+ minutes at 96%. On Kalshi, the speech length market has drawn $387,000 throughout 9 contracts, with a 99% chance Trump speaks for at least 60 minutes and 53% he breaks 100.
The implied median has shifted sharply towards 100+ minutes as the speech approaches. For context, Trump averaged 80 minutes and 20 seconds throughout his first three State of the Union addresses, however his joint session on March 4, 2025, ran 99 minutes and 32 seconds.
Polymarket novelty markets
Polymarket is working a number of classes that Kalshi hasn’t matched, and some are drawing severe quantity.
The JD Vance clapping counter is the largest Polymarket novelty market at $176,000 in quantity with $94,800 traded immediately. “100+” has surged to 66%, up from 22% earlier in the day. Vance, as Vice President, is seated behind Trump and is predicted to face and applaud dozens of occasions throughout the tackle. A separate “who will applaud” market ($72,500 in quantity) has Hakeem Jeffries main at 81%.
The Trump-Vance handshake market has $23,800 in quantity. “Under 2 seconds” has surged to 80%, up from 49% this morning. The “no handshake” possibility had traded as high as 25% final week earlier than falling beneath 10%, reflecting stories that the relationship between Trump and Vance is extra secure than some had speculated.
Polymarket’s nickname market ($49,100 in quantity) is pricing “Green New Scam” as the most certainly Trump nickname at 53%, with “Sleepy Joe” at 32%.
Trump’s tie shade has drawn $56,400 in quantity, with “different” main at 68% — that means the market expects one thing aside from a typical crimson or blue tie. Viewership expectations are bearish: the “underneath 35 million” consequence leads at 65% with $33,500 in quantity.
The “will anybody be kicked out?” market sits at 43% with $14,800 in quantity, reflecting the precedent set by Rep. Al Green’s ejection final 12 months. Trump ingesting water throughout the speech is priced at simply 19%.
Three SOTU bingo playing cards ($34,000 in mixed quantity) mixture outcomes throughout point out, attendance, and nickname markets into single parlay-style contracts.
How to observe
President Trump delivers the State of the Union at 9 p.m. ET on all main broadcast and cable information networks. The speech shall be livestreamed on the White House YouTube channel, NBC, CBS, ABC, Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, C-SPAN, and PBS.
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