Strategy’s $76K Cost Basis Emerges As A Key Market Stress Line
The key to understanding Bitcoin’s present market section will not be forecasting short-term value route, however analyzing construction—the place capital is concentrated, how that capital is financed, and whether or not contemporary demand is coming into the system. A current CryptoQuant report shifts the main focus away from narratives and towards these underlying mechanics, highlighting Strategy as a central structural reference level.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, Strategy’s common Bitcoin acquisition value round $76,000 has emerged as a essential degree for the broader market. This value was not deliberately focused as help, however the sheer quantity of Bitcoin collected at this degree makes it unattainable to disregard. As market value gravitates towards this zone, the query is not whether or not Bitcoin is bullish or bearish, however whether or not the market can take in provide and maintain with out exposing deeper stress.
This degree additionally carries significance past spot value motion. Strategy’s accumulation has been financed by way of capital markets, together with fairness issuance and convertible debt, linking Bitcoin’s market structure to broader liquidity circumstances. If value weakens towards this space whereas funding circumstances tighten, the sustainability of structural demand comes into focus.
Structural Leverage And Strategy’s Test Zone
A CryptoQuant analyst notes that leverage on this cycle extends past derivatives and into capital markets. Although Strategy will not be using short-term buying and selling leverage, its Bitcoin accumulation has been financed by way of fairness issuance and convertible bonds. This locations rising significance on the capital-market window remaining open. If Bitcoin costs and Strategy’s fairness weaken concurrently whereas funding circumstances tighten, the agency’s potential to maintain accumulation diminishes, decreasing a key supply of structural demand.
On-chain knowledge reinforces this cautious framework. Bitcoin’s Realized Cap has struggled to broaden regardless of giant value swings, suggesting rotation amongst present holders relatively than significant new inflows. In this setting, upside strikes usually tend to be pushed by brief masking or non permanent liquidity results than by sturdy spot demand.
SOPR additional helps this view. With SOPR incessantly under 1, short-term holders proceed to appreciate losses and exit positions. While this dynamic can gasoline reduction rallies, historic pattern reversals often require SOPR to reclaim and maintain above the 1.0 threshold.
Despite these constraints, accumulation has not stopped fully. On Monday, Michael Saylor announced that Strategy acquired 855 BTC for about $75.3 million at a mean value of $87,974. As of February 1, 2026, Strategy holds 713,502 BTC, acquired for roughly $54.26 billion at a mean price of $76,052.
Until spot quantity, ETF inflows, and Realized Cap reaccelerate collectively, the bottom case stays broad consolidation. The $76,000 degree will not be a assured flooring, however a structural take a look at—this stays a market outlined by construction, not value.
Bitcoin Breaks Key Support
Bitcoin’s value motion on this day by day chart confirms a decisive shift in market construction towards a bearish regime. After failing a number of occasions to reclaim the declining short-term and medium-term shifting averages, BTC has accelerated to the draw back, breaking under the $80,000 psychological degree and tagging the $78,000–$77,000 zone.
This space now represents the primary significant demand area, however the method during which value arrived there’s vital: the transfer was impulsive, with increasing pink quantity bars, signaling lively distribution relatively than passive consolidation.
Structurally, Bitcoin stays under its 50-day and 100-day shifting averages, each of that are sloping downward, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 200-day shifting common, nonetheless trending greater close to the low-$100,000s, is now far above value, highlighting how prolonged the correction has develop into relative to the prior uptrend. Rallies over the previous a number of weeks have constantly stalled beneath falling resistance, forming a collection of decrease highs that outline a transparent downtrend.
As lengthy as BTC holds under former help turned resistance close to $85,000–$88,000, the chance of additional draw back or extended consolidation stays elevated. The market seems targeted on discovering acceptance at decrease ranges relatively than initiating a sustained restoration.
Featured picture from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
