Strive CIO Explains the Structure That Lets MicroStrategy’s Stock Beat Bitcoin | US Crypto News
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Grab a espresso, settle in, and assume past the each day worth swings of Bitcoin. What if the story isn’t about timing the market, however about how an organization’s construction quietly compounds worth over the years? That’s the argument Strive CIO Jeff Walton is making about MicroStrategy (MSTR), a inventory that, on the floor, strikes with crypto, however beneath, he says, operates like a machine steadily growing Bitcoin publicity per share.
Crypto News of the Day: Strive CIO Jeff Walton on Why Buying MSTR at 2.5x mNAV Still Beats Spot Bitcoin
Jeff Walton, Chief Risk Officer at Strive and founder and CEO of its subsidiary True North, says most buyers fundamentally misunderstand MicroStrategy (MSTR).
Reflecting on his personal 2021 purchases, Walton argues the inventory shouldn’t be seen as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. Rather, buyers ought to view MSTR as a capital markets engine designed to extend Bitcoin publicity per share over time.
Walton revealed he started shopping for MSTR in June 2021 at roughly 2.5x mNAV, believing the inventory was already down 50%.
“Little did I do know, the inventory would fall one other 80% from my value foundation,” he wrote, as MSTR collapsed almost 90% from its February 2021 peak.
By late 2022, the firm was buying and selling close to 1.3x mNAV, holding 129,999 Bitcoin whereas its notional debt briefly exceeded asset worth. Despite being “down dangerous on paper,” Walton stated the underlying math by no means broke.
“The firm had REAL arduous cash, debt covenants weren’t egregious, and structurally every thing on the horizon for crypto was bullish,” he stated, citing the halving cycle, ETFs, elections, and rate of interest shifts.
By mid-2023, Walton stated he went “all in,” satisfied the capital construction, not worth motion, was the actual thesis.
That conviction, he argues, is what allowed long-term holders to outlive considered one of the harshest drawdowns in crypto fairness historical past.
How Time and Structure Changed the Risk Equation for MicroStrategy
Fast ahead to late 2025, Walton notes that MicroStrategy now holds 672,497 Bitcoin. Notably, that is greater than 12 instances the measurement of the next-largest publicly traded company holder.
More importantly, he says, the danger profile of his unique shares has undergone a elementary change.
“The 1x NAV per share worth is 160% larger than the 2.5x mNAV shares I bought again in June of 2021,” Walton wrote, including that the rising NAV flooring now sits above his unique value foundation.
In his view, capital market exercise steadily de-risked widespread fairness whereas amplifying Bitcoin publicity per share.
From this level ahead, Walton argues his 2021 shares can structurally outperform Bitcoin even when the firm acquires zero extra BTC.
“There is materially extra Bitcoin publicity in EACH share I bought in 2021 than once I purchased them,” he stated, emphasizing that extra Bitcoin publicity has been accreted by way of dilution, most popular fairness, and long-dated debt slightly than worth appreciation alone.
That framing drew help from market commentators, who argued buyers had been shopping for a system, not leverage.
“Bitcoin is a bearer asset. MicroStrategy is an working system for buying Bitcoin utilizing public-market incentives,” commented one analyst.
In Walton’s view, volatility itself turned an enter, successfully serving as gas for accretion slightly than a menace to the thesis.
But Is It A Structural Edge or a Cycle-Dependent Trade?
Strive CEO Matt Cole has echoed Walton’s view, not too long ago stating that MSTR has outperformed Bitcoin and gold over 5 years. According to Cole, this might stay true even at $75,000 BTC or 1x mNAV.
However, not everybody agrees that the structural edge is assured going ahead. Contrarian narratives argue that whereas five-year outperformance was actual by way of mid-2025, MSTR materially underperformed Bitcoin throughout the second-half drawdown. Further, it has traded near or below 1x mNAV in latest weeks.
Elsewhere, Barchart indicates that MicroStrategy was the worst-performing Nasdaq-100 inventory of 2025, down roughly 65% from its peak amid a broader crypto winter.
Critics like Peter Schiff dismissed the strategy entirely, arguing that Strategy’s common Bitcoin value implies modest annual returns.
Others warned that sustained sub-1x mNAV situations may theoretically immediate Bitcoin gross sales, a state of affairs CEO Phong Le has acknowledged would make “mathematical” sense, though administration has confused that it’s unlikely.
Still, indicators of institutional curiosity persist. According to trade commentary, giant US banks are actually exploring partnerships with Strategy, with Michael Saylor framing financial institution adoption, not worth, as the defining Bitcoin narrative for 2026.
Will MSTR’s construction show cycle-proof? Walton argues that point and capital construction do the actual work, not timing.
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Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview
| Company | Close As of December 29 | Pre-Market Overview |
| Strategy (MSTR) | $155.39 | $155.99 (+0.39%) |
| Coinbase (COIN) | $233.77 | $234.39 (+0.27%) |
| Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) | $23.16 | $23.47 (+1.345) |
| MARA Holdings (MARA) | $9.49 | $9.50 (+0.12%) |
| Riot Platforms (RIOT) | $13.21 | $13.30 (+0.76%) |
| Core Scientific (CORZ) | $15.08 | $15.09 (+0.066%) |
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