Strong Jobs Report Sends Dollar Flying As Bitcoin Falls Below $111K – End of BTC Bull Market?
A surprisingly robust U.S. jobs report thrusted monetary markets this week, sending the greenback flying whereas Bitcoin tumbled under $111,000.
Initial jobless claims dropped by 14,000 to 218,000 within the third week of September, marking a two-month low, whereas Q2 GDP progress was revised upward to 3.8% from 3.3%.
The upbeat financial knowledge lifted the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to a three-week high, rising 0.3% on the day, however weighed closely on danger belongings, with Bitcoin now testing help close to $111,000.
Dollar popped on the robust knowledge$DXY +0.3% pic.twitter.com/6l36h1QJA0
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT
(@MikeZaccardi) September 25, 2025
Economic Strength Slashes Rate Cut Odds as Bitcoin Falls Below $111K
Bloomberg Terminal data present that the recent financial knowledge weakens the case for speedy Fed cuts. After final week’s 25-bp reduce, Fed Governor Miran pushed for faster easing, however Powell urged warning.
Odds of an October charge reduce have now gone all the way down to 85.5% from 92%, based on data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Glassnode market insights additionally revealed that Bitcoin is exhibiting indicators of exhaustion. ETF inflows, as soon as a key absorber of Bitcoin provide, slowed sharply around the FOMC assembly, and long-term holder distribution accelerated, making a fragile stability in flows.
This weak point extends to identify and futures markets, suggesting rising exhaustion. With short-term holders’ $111K cost basis now serving as key help, this degree should maintain to stop additional draw back.
Additionally, BTC has slipped below the 0.95 Cost Basis Quantile, a key danger band that usually marks profit-taking zones.
Reclaiming it could point out renewed power, however failure to take action dangers a drift towards decrease help ranges round $105K–$90K.
In addition, geopolitical uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine battle, amid reviews of Russian jet interceptions over Alaska, has added to market weak point.
Ongoing conflicts in Gaza have additionally prompted merchants to hunt safe-haven belongings, comparable to gold, leaving Bitcoin struggling to draw new inflows. However, some market analysts see this as a brief bearish case.
Analyst and Long-Term Investors Confident BTC Bull Market Not Yet Over
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital revealed that whereas Bitcoin is struggling under $112K, the 21-week EMA retains climbing to attempt to reclaim $114,200 to invalidate the bearish setup.
He confirmed that the BTC value wants to stay above this EMA going ahead to place for a reclaim of bullish territory and try a brand new high.
The consensus perception stays that Bitcoin and the overall market might go decrease, however the bull run just isn’t over.
Bitcoin remains to be buying and selling at a spread low, with an inverse head-and-shoulders establishing, and as of proper now, punching in the next low.
The value can be following typical seasonality and pullbacks that in 4 of the final 5 years have completed practically the identical factor earlier than the market flies in October into November and past.
Despite the short-term weak point, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $1 million by 2030.
Similarly, crypto billionaire and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes additionally forecast that Bitcoin would attain $1M and will even surge as high as $3.4 million by 2028.
The prediction hinges on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent implementing yield curve management insurance policies that would set off large cash printing, creating what Hayes calls a “as soon as in a century change of the worldwide financial structure.”
@CryptoHayes predicts $3.4 million Bitcoin by 2028 primarily based on Treasury yield curve management insurance policies and big cash printing situations.#Bitcoin #Predictionhttps://t.co/DeV8BsWviO
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) September 23, 2025
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin’s $116K Rejection Points to $108K Target
On the technical entrance, the Bitcoin 1-hour chart exhibits that value has damaged down from the upward channel that supported the current rally, slipping under the $116,000 resistance and testing the $112,000 help zone.
The failed breakout makes an attempt round resistance counsel that sellers have gained management, and the current drop confirms weakening momentum.
At the second, Bitcoin is hovering simply above help at $111,000–$112,000, which is a key degree to observe.
If this space holds, a bounce might see the worth retest the $116,000 resistance.
However, if the help breaks decisively, it could possible open the door for additional draw back, probably extending towards $108,000.
Overall, the chart displays a shift in short-term sentiment from bullish to cautious, with the subsequent transfer hinging on whether or not help holds or fails.
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