Strongest PMI Since 2022 Meets Crypto’s Sharpest Spot Volume Drop – Analysts Eye Bitcoin Upside
U.S. manufacturing expanded for the primary time in over two years because the ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 52.6 in January (the strongest studying since 2022), whereas Bitcoin, trading near $78,000, entered its fifth consecutive month of correction amid collapsing spot demand.
The macro rebound has ignited a fierce debate amongst crypto analysts over whether or not this shift will reignite a bull run or arrive too late to halt the market’s structural weakening.
New Orders surged to 57.1, and Production climbed to 55.9, snapping 26 consecutive months of producing contraction and touchdown the PMI at its highest in 40 months.
Meanwhile, $2.56 billion in crypto liquidations and spot volumes at their lowest since 2024 is hinting at a doable drained out liquidity, as the whole crypto market cap sank to $2.58 trillion.
Manufacturing Rebound Ends a Historic Drought
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick credited the growth on to commerce coverage, framing it as validation of the administration’s tariff strategy.
“For the primary time in over two years the United States has delivered manufacturing growth, all due to President Trump’s commerce insurance policies,” he acknowledged, including that “tariffs are working as we mentioned.“
The sub-indices bolstered the optimism. Production reached its highest since February 2022, Backlogs of Orders expanded to 51.6, and 9 of eighteen manufacturing industries reported progress, with the Prices Index holding at 59%.
New Export Orders crossed into growth at 50.2 for the primary time since December, deepening the restoration sign throughout the sector.
Economist James E. Thorne firmly rejected inflation fears surrounding the info. “Expanding the Supply Side of the financial system is NOT inflationary,” he wrote, a stance supported by Truflation’s real-time U.S. CPI studying of 0.95%, effectively under the two% goal.
Spot Demand Collapse Raises Alarm Bells
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost flagged a dramatic retreat in spot exercise since October, with Binance volumes tumbling from practically $200 billion to $104 billion.
“The present surroundings stays unsure and doesn’t encourage risk-taking,” he wrote, warning {that a} sturdy restoration requires spot volumes to return.
Spot demand Is drying up : Bitcoin enters its fifth month of correction
We at the moment are coming into the fifth consecutive month of correction for Bitcoin.
This correction has been largely pushed by the October tenth occasion, which led to an enormous destruction of liquidity, significantly in… pic.twitter.com/rX2keResNG
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) February 2, 2026
Speaking with Cryptonews, SwapSpace CBDO Vasily Shilov sharpened the image with alternate move information, noting that “the quantity of Bitcoin transferred to exchanges has fallen to round $10 billion per 30 days” in opposition to “$50–80 billion” at previous worth peaks.
SwapSpace information additionally confirmed weekend alternate volumes surging 43% above typical benchmarks amid skinny liquidity
He attributed the weak spot to a requirement vacuum compounded by geopolitical stress round Iran.
On-chain metrics deepened the concern. CryptoQuant’s Supply in Loss rose sharply to 44%, a sample traditionally related to early bear-market phases quite than wholesome pullbacks.
The Puell Multiple additionally remained in its low cost zone for the third consecutive month, with miner reserves at roughly 1.8 million BTC beneath mounting income stress as smaller operators start to capitulate.
Bulls and Bears Clash Over the ISM Signal
Joe Burnett, VP of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive, framed the PMI breakout as a historic catalyst.
“Past breakouts in 2013, 2016, and 2020 served as key catalysts for Bitcoin’s main bull runs,” he wrote.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen pushed again sharply, citing 2014 ( when the ISM climbed from 52.5 to 55.7 whereas Bitcoin dropped from $737 to $302), and cautioned that “Bitcoin shouldn’t be the financial system.“
Leo Lanza countered Cowen immediately, arguing the actual set off shouldn’t be ISM hovering above 50, however particularly crossing again above 50 after extended contraction, which is the precise sample now in play.
Analyst Jesse Eckel built on that thesis, declaring that “each single crypto bull run ever — 2013, 2017 and 2021 — occurred when the ISM moved up above 50,” and including that “our dot com second continues to be firmly forward of us.“
Shilov, nonetheless, closed with a measured warning, projecting a near-term dip under $70,000 earlier than any sustained restoration materializes.
The worst case, he cautioned, may drag complete crypto market cap towards $1.8–2.0 trillion, making ETF flows, company holder choices, and the evolving geopolitical panorama the defining forces shaping Bitcoin’s path ahead.
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