“Tax Loss Harvesting” Drives $825M Outflow From Bitcoin ETFs This Week: Analyst
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded eight consecutive days of institutional promoting, with complete outflows reaching roughly $825 million as year-end tax methods dominate market conduct.
According to analyst Alek, the sustained promoting stress stems primarily from tax loss harvesting.
He claimed it’s a momentary phenomenon anticipated to conclude throughout the coming week, alongside de-risking forward of Bitcoin’s quarterly choices expiry.
On December 24 alone, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed web outflows of $175 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT main the exodus at $91.37 million.
Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $52.70 million in outflows, whereas newer merchandise confirmed resilience, with Solana ETFs attracting $1.48 million and XRP ETFs drawing $11.93 million in recent capital.
Regional Shift Creates New Market Dynamic
A notable geographic rotation has emerged in Bitcoin markets, with the United States changing into the dominant vendor whereas Asian consumers step in as the first accumulation drive, as famous by analyst Ted Pillows.
This is sort of notable as it’s a reversal that’s fairly totally different from conventional capital movement patterns which have traditionally characterised crypto buying and selling.
Meanwhile, whale exercise on Binance has contracted sharply, with massive holder deposits plummeting practically 50% from $7.9 billion to $3.9 billion.
CryptoQuant data reveals that month-to-month whale inflows dropped from roughly $7.88 billion to $3.86 billion in December, successfully halving in simply weeks.
Despite this broader slowdown, remoted spikes persist, with current actions together with $466 million throughout the 100 BTC to 10,000 BTC cohorts and over $435 million from the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC vary.
The diminished whale deposit exercise suggests diminished promoting stress, as fewer Bitcoin transfers to exchanges mechanically translate to much less fast liquidation threat.
However, Binance continues to seize the most important share of change flows.
Bitcoin Correlation Breakdown Signals Independence
Bitcoin’s market behavior has decoupled from conventional property, with correlation to the Nasdaq approaching zero and turning adverse in opposition to gold.
CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn noted that Bitcoin now not trades like a tech inventory or protected haven, as an alternative “carving out its personal market regime.”
Low Correlation Signal
Bitcoin is shifting independently:
• Nasdaq correlation is close to 0
• Gold correlation is adverseBTC is now not buying and selling like a tech inventory or a protected haven. It’s carving out its personal market regime. pic.twitter.com/VLibiQWYIb
— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) December 25, 2025
This independence comes as gold and silver proceed climbing whereas Bitcoin stays range-bound.
CryptoQuant analysis attributes the divergence to elevated demand for conventional protected property amid geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of lower real interest rates, and simpler institutional allocation pathways to valuable metals.
Bitcoin is handled primarily as a high-beta threat asset moderately than a pure protected haven, making it secondary throughout risk-off environments when capital first flows into gold and authorities bonds.
Bitcoin’s obvious demand just lately turned adverse, indicating stagnant new capital inflows regardless of elevated costs.
Short-Term Holder SOPR has additionally spent prolonged durations under 1, suggesting current consumers are exiting at losses or breakeven, creating promoting stress on rebounds.
Gold trades above $4,500 per ounce whereas Bitcoin nonetheless struggles to interrupt $90,000.
Bear Market Scenario Gains Credibility
Notably, CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Indicator (BCMI) has additionally fallen under equilibrium however stays above historic backside zones of 0.25–0.35 seen throughout 2019 and 2023 cycle lows.
The present studying, in line with analysts, suggests markets could also be transitioning right into a bear part moderately than experiencing a easy pullback.
However, they emphasize this stays a situation moderately than a forecast that requires additional affirmation.
Adding to the waning demand, Polymarket odds for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end have collapsed to only 3%, which reveals the proper near-term sentiment.
Despite present weak point, analyst Plan C maintains conviction that “Bitcoin could have its second within the highlight” in 2026, predicting imply reversion in opposition to gold and silver’s outperformance within the comparatively close to time period.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is buying and selling at $87,838, down practically 30% from its October peak above $126,000.
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