The 10x Bitcoin Rally Isn’t Coming. CryptoQuant CEO Predicts a Calmer Cycle

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has laid out what he expects from Bitcoin’s (BTC) present bull cycle. He additionally sees the next bear market as completely different from previous ones.

Ju ties that outlook to a change in who owns Bitcoin and the sort of capital it now attracts. His outlook arrives with the asset buying and selling close to its highest degree since January.

Ju Reads a Calmer Cycle within the On-Chain Data

Ju expects good points of three to five occasions this cycle reasonably than one other 10x-plus parabolic rally. A gentler bear market would observe, in his view.

He credited Bitcoin’s bigger market and rising institutional possession. Retail scorching cash, he famous, powered previous cycles and their 80% crashes.

Ju pointed to on-chain knowledge as assist. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio by no means fell under 1 this cycle. 

“Some buyers took losses, however holders as a complete by no means went underwater,” he said. “Even the PnL Index’s 365-day transferring common, which usually lags at turning factors, is forming a significant inflection proper now.”

Ju additionally flagged a rise in realized cap and a halt in selling by OG whales. Futures whales, in the meantime, constructed giant lengthy positions close to the underside.

“None of this implies Bitcoin has a ceiling. It means the trade-off has modified. Giving up the 10x parabola additionally means giving up the 80% crash, and that’s precisely what invitations affected person, long-horizon capital as a substitute of scorching cash,” he wrote.

Follow us on X to get the most recent information because it occurs

Doing the Math From Bitcoin’s June Low

Bitcoin’s September rally offers his view some footing. The asset reached $87,395 on September 21, its highest price since late January.

That transfer adopted Bitcoin’s first weekly shut above the 50-week moving average since November 2025. Galaxy’s Alex Thorn has described reclaiming that common as robust affirmation of previous bear market lows.

Before that shut, Bitcoin had traded under the typical for 45 straight weeks. The lowest level of that stretch got here in late June, when the worth fell to close $58,000.

Bitcoin has since gained about 49%, buying and selling at $86,380 by press time. Measured from these lows, a 3x transfer would equal roughly $174,000, about 38% above the $126,080 file from October 6, 2025.

A 4x transfer would equal about $232,000, and a 5x transfer would equal about $290,000. Those levels fall between two calls from VanEck’s Matthew Sigel, who has forecast $100,000 for subsequent yr and $500,000 by 2029

Subscribe to our YouTube channel to look at leaders and journalists present skilled insights

The put up The 10x Bitcoin Rally Isn’t Coming. CryptoQuant CEO Predicts a Calmer Cycle appeared first on BeInCrypto.