The $3,170 Ceiling? Here’s Why Every Ethereum Price Bounce Keeps Failing
The Ethereum value is barely crimson at this time, close to $3,013, down about 1.8%, whereas Bitcoin stays marginally inexperienced. The underperformance will not be new. Ethereum has additionally dropped practically 23% this month, once more weaker than Bitcoin.
There is a contemporary reversal try on the chart, however this setup has already failed as soon as. It will probably fail once more except one key degree lastly breaks.
RSI Shows a Clear Bullish Divergence, however History Says It Can Still Fail
A clear bullish divergence has shaped between Nov. 4 and Nov. 19. The value made a decrease low, however the RSI, a momentum indicator that measures whether or not value strikes are robust or weak, made a better low. Divergences like this usually seem earlier than a pattern flip as a result of RSI turns sooner than value.
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But Ethereum showed the same signal earlier, from Nov. 4 to Nov. 17, and it nonetheless failed. Both reversal makes an attempt bumped into the identical wall: $3,170. The chart is flashing the suitable sign, however the construction behind it’s not supportive but.
Reversal Keeps Failing: Selling Pressure and a Heavy Supply Cluster?
Long-term holders usually are not backing the bounce. The Hodler Net Position Change, which tracks pockets flows of buyers, stays detrimental. On Nov. 18, long-term holders had been already net-negative by 524,819 ETH, however that quantity widened to 583,171 ETH on Nov. 19.
That means one other 58,352 ETH—round $175 million at present costs—moved into promoting strain inside 24 hours. Until this shifts, any RSI-based reversal stays fragile.
The cost-basis heatmap, the indicator displaying key provide clusters, explains the remaining. The strongest provide block in months sits between $3,150 and $3,170, holding about 2.69 million ETH. This zone is highlighted in orange on the heatmap and has rejected each try to maneuver increased. This can also be the zone the place the earlier divergence try failed on Nov. 17.
With long-term holders promoting and a heavy provide wall stacked above the worth, the Ethereum price reversal setup retains getting crushed earlier than it may play out.
Ethereum Price Stays Stuck in a Downward Channel Until $3,170 Breaks
The Ethereum price continues to trade inside a descending channel. The 0.382 Fibonacci degree at $3,170 traces up completely with the identical resistance cluster. This means $3,170 isn’t just a chart degree — it’s the structural pivot for all the pattern.
Unless Ethereum posts a day by day shut above $3,170, each bounce will stay non permanent, and the pattern stays bearish.
If the breakout lastly occurs, the subsequent goal is $3,656, the higher Fibonacci zone the place momentum can reset. Until then, value is susceptible to a different sweep of the decrease channel vary. Also, failure to cross $3,170 and the shortcoming to carry $3,056 might push the Ethereum value to the channel’s decrease boundary.
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