The Bitcoin Bear Market Is Not Coming, And This Is Why

The broader crypto house has continued to consider that Bitcoin (BTC) is in a bear market. This narrative is fueled by its latest price crash to $60,000 in February this 12 months, reflecting a forty five% decline from its all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. However, technical analyst Crypto Patel boldly debunks this narrative. He has said that the bear market “isn’t coming,” suggesting that the present market drop could be a short lived dip or “liquidity seize,” earlier than a pointy reversal to the upside. 

Why The Bitcoin Bear Market Is Not Coming

Crypto Patel said on X that the Bitcoin bear market isn’t coming as a result of everybody seems to be ready for it to occur whereas counting on the four-year cycle theory. The analyst defined his distinctive thesis by outlining a key worth degree on his accompanying worth chart that might sign a shift in Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Crypto Patel noted that if Bitcoin can shut every week above $76,000, it will counsel the present market decline was nothing greater than a liquidity grab. He referred to this potential motion as an “expanded fiat deviation,” emphasizing that comparable patterns have traditionally trapped bearish merchants at each main cycle low. According to him, as soon as this deviation begins, it might sign that the market is getting ready for a major bullish reversal.

Notably, the analyst criticized those that examine the present cycle to the 2018 bear market or the 2022 market crash. Crypto Patel identified that, not like the present market, in 2018, there have been no spot ETFs, no Sovereign Wealth Funds accumulating BTC, no public firms holding BTC on their steadiness sheets, and no states constructing strategic Bitcoin reserves.

Similarly, in 2022, the analyst highlighted that the market collapse was solely pushed by structural failures slightly than a pure cycle high. He said that the interval was marked by widespread leverage fraud, the Luna crash, the FTX collapse, and the meltdown of Celsius and Three Arrows Capital.

In distinction, Crypto Patel famous that the present cycle presents a basically completely different macro backdrop. He emphasised that institutional inflows are surging as change provide hit multi-year lows. Additionally, he famous that the halving-induced provide shock is but to be priced in. Based on these tendencies, the analyst means that right this moment’s market dynamics are the polar reverse of previous cycles.  

Analyst Outlines BTC’s Roadmap Toward $200,000

In his submit, Crypto Patel shared a second degree after $76,000, which he believes might propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $200,000 this cycle. The analyst described the $98,000 resistance space as a set off, suggesting {that a} weekly shut above this degree wouldn’t solely verify Bitcoin’s power but additionally fully invalidate its bear market thesis.

According to his bullish roadmap, as soon as Bitcoin breaks $98,000, the market might expertise a second wave of panic-driven momentum. At this level, he expects the BTC worth to start out pushing towards $150,000 with no pullbacks earlier than probably skyrocketing to $200,000.