The Cycle Without A Ceiling: Why Bitcoin’s Missing Peak Rewrites The Rules For The 2026 Bottom
Bitcoin continues to battle beneath the $70,000 stage, with repeated makes an attempt to regain upward momentum assembly persistent promoting stress. The incapability to maintain rallies has stored market sentiment cautious, and several other analysts are more and more warning {that a} deeper correction beneath $60,000 stays potential if present situations persist. Volatility has risen in latest weeks, whereas liquidity situations seem tighter, contributing to a defensive posture amongst each retail and institutional members.
Despite this fragile backdrop, a latest CryptoQuant report affords a extra nuanced perspective on the present section. According to the evaluation, Bitcoin has been trending downward for roughly 4 months following its all-time high reached in October 2025. While value motion displays sustained weak point, the report suggests the market might now be approaching what could possibly be thought-about an undervalued zone from an on-chain valuation standpoint.
Such phases have traditionally emerged throughout later levels of corrective cycles, when market participants steadily reassess positioning and speculative excesses are diminished. Although this doesn’t essentially sign an instantaneous rebound, it introduces the chance that draw back danger might start to average if broader liquidity situations stabilize.
MVRV Signals Bitcoin Approaching Potential Undervaluation Zone
The report additional notes that valuation metrics are starting to strategy ranges traditionally related to accumulation phases. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a extensively adopted on-chain indicator, is at the moment close to 1.1. Traditionally, readings beneath 1 have signaled that Bitcoin is buying and selling beneath its combination value foundation, a situation typically interpreted as undervaluation. While the indicator has not but crossed that threshold, its proximity suggests the market could also be coming into a zone the place draw back danger steadily compresses.
At the identical time, analysts emphasize an essential structural distinction from earlier cycles. Unlike earlier bull markets, Bitcoin didn’t surge deep right into a clearly overheated valuation zone earlier than the latest correction started. This implies the present drawdown might not observe the identical capitulation dynamics seen in prior bear market bottoms, complicating direct historic comparisons.
From a strategic standpoint, the evaluation means that intervals of market weak point typically present the simplest window for long-term positioning. For belongings with a persistent upward macro trajectory, preparation throughout downturns tends to enhance risk-adjusted outcomes. However, this doesn’t get rid of near-term volatility dangers, notably whereas macro liquidity situations stay unsure and sentiment continues to shift.
Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Averages As Bearish Momentum Persists
Bitcoin value motion continues to indicate persistent weak point, with the chart illustrating a transparent sequence of decrease highs and decrease lows for the reason that late-2025 peak close to the $120K–$125K area. The latest breakdown beneath the $70K stage reinforces the bearish construction, notably as value stays properly beneath the 50-week and 100-week shifting averages, each of which are actually sloping downward. This alignment sometimes displays sustained distribution somewhat than a short lived correction.
The sharp selloff into the mid-$60K space was accompanied by a noticeable spike in buying and selling quantity, suggesting pressured liquidations or aggressive spot promoting somewhat than routine profit-taking. While value has tried minor stabilization across the $65K–$68K vary, the shortage of sturdy rebound momentum signifies consumers stay cautious. Historically, such muted recoveries after high-volume declines typically sign ongoing market uncertainty somewhat than speedy reversal.
From a structural standpoint, the following vital technical focus lies close to the $60K psychological stage, which may act as interim assist if promoting stress continues. Conversely, any sustained restoration would first require reclaiming the $70K zone and stabilizing above key shifting averages. Until that happens, the broader development stays defensive, with volatility more likely to persist because the market searches for a clearer equilibrium.
Featured picture from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
