The December Bitcoin Roadmap: The Signals You Can’t Ignore

Bitcoin has opened December 2025 on the again foot, and market construction across the new month-to-month candle is already drawing shut scrutiny from merchants.

How Will Bitcoin Perform In December?

Sharing a year-to-date chart on X, dealer Daan Crypto Trades highlighted a recurring sample in 2025: Bitcoin typically units its month-to-month excessive early. “We know by now that the primary transfer does typically create the month-to-month high or low inside the first ~12 days,” he wrote. “This occurs about 80% of the months.” His chart marks how February’s low, March’s high, April’s low, May’s low, July’s inflection, and the important thing October and November pivots all occurred inside that window, with June and August flagged as exceptions.

December, thus far, is conforming in type if not but in end result. “Price has taken a fast dive straight from the candle open thus far in December, leaving no wick above both,” Daan famous. “This doesn’t make for the strongest high.” That sort of fast one-sided transfer, he argues, is commonly revisited: “Good to observe carefully within the 1–2 weeks forward. Often these prompt strikes from the open, do finish getting retested. October was a great instance of that lately.”

Zooming in, Daan’s second chart units out the important thing ranges. After bottoming close to $80,714 on November 21, Bitcoin staged roughly a +15% aid rally right into a thick prior support-turned-resistance zone within the low-$93,000s. That first take a look at failed, with value rejected and rolling again over.

“BTC rejecting from the earlier assist & resistance space,” he wrote. “Not one thing you need to see as a bull. Price noticed a good +15% aid rally however has misplaced steam once more after every week already.” On that very same chart he plots a short-term Fibonacci retracement from the $93,175 native high all the way down to the $80,714 low. The 0.786 retracement degree sits round $83,381, shut to identify on the time of posting.

“It is early within the week/month,” he added, “and we do typically see sharp strikes straight from that new month-to-month candle. These typically aren’t the strongest highs/lows set straight initially of a brand new month. So good to observe within the days forward. (You guys additionally know I like my .786 fib retests so watching carefully round this space).”

That leaves a transparent tactical map: fast draw back ranges across the 0.786 retrace and the prior low, with upside conviction solely returning if value can re-enter and reclaim the mid-to-high-$80,000s former assist zone.

A separate put up from Daan situates this setup inside December’s broader historic profile. Sharing a Coinglass desk of Bitcoin’s month-to-month returns from 2013 onward, he described December as “fairly blended however [one that] has seen some large outliers with a variety of volatility.”

The knowledge assist that: previous Decembers vary from giant good points above 30–40% to deep drawdowns exceeding -30%. The common December return sits in modest constructive territory (+4.75%), whereas the median is barely unfavorable (-3.22%), underscoring that there is no such thing as a easy “Santa rally” impact; as a substitute, dispersion and volatility dominate.

For Daan, a part of that behaviour is structural. “Don’t be shocked in case you see some bizarre flows on the finish and begin of the 12 months,” he warned. “Generally it is a interval the place large holders/funds and such rebalance their books. We may also see the impact of tax loss harvesting sooner or later.” Those portfolio changes and tax-driven trades can enlarge strikes in each instructions, significantly in an asset that also trades with pockets of skinny liquidity.

His sensible takeaway is intentionally conservative: “Good to only be allotted in a approach that feels snug for you. Whatever the tip of 2025 and start of 2026 will convey.”

At press time, BTC traded at $87,323.