The Fed Just Changed Everything For Crypto, Says Top Trader

The Federal Reserve’s first charge minimize of 2025 has landed—25 foundation factors on September 17—and, in Trader Mayne’s telling, that removes the final macro “X-factor” hanging over the crypto market. In a video evaluation posted the identical day, the veteran price-action dealer argued that with the coverage transfer now within the rear-view mirror, crypto can “simply give attention to the charts,” sketching a roadmap wherein Bitcoin posts another leg increased into new all-time highs earlier than a pullback ushers in a traditional altseason blow-off. “We had FOMC at this time and the charges received minimize lastly… It’s 25 foundation factors,” he stated. “Now the market’s going to digest it.”

Where Is Bitcoin Price Going Next?

The coverage backdrop he’s reacting to is simple: the FOMC lowered the fed funds goal vary by 1 / 4 level to 4.00%–4.25% on Sept. 17, with Chair Jerome Powell describing the transfer as a risk-management response to weakening labor dynamics and leaving the door open to further easing this 12 months. The determination drew an 11–1 vote, with newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a bigger, 50 bps minimize—an unusually hawkish dissent in a dovish route—whereas the Board’s implementation notice reset key administered charges efficient Sept. 18. Markets learn the assertion and projections as signaling scope for additional cuts into year-end.

From right here, Mayne’s framework is unapologetically technical. He characterizes Bitcoin’s most up-to-date upswing as corrective relative to the prior impulse and expects worth to “push above the mid-range” towards a variety high round $120,000–$121,000, the place he’ll look ahead to rejection at a higher-time-frame confluence outlined by a weekly swing-failure sample (SFP) and an H12 breaker.

If momentum stalls there, he plans to quick right into a washout to filter built-up leverage—“HYPE made one other all-time high at this time. PUMP has tripled within the final two weeks… there’s some leverage within the system”—after which purchase the dip for what he calls the final parabolic leg of the cycle. “Any type of dip on BTC, I wish to be on the lookout for an extended,” he stated, including {that a} shallow retest within the $110,000–$111,000 space or a deeper sweep of current lows would each be acceptable springboards if the rebound is decisive.

If, as a substitute, worth grinds by means of the $120,000 s with no indicators of exhaustion, Mayne says he has “no drawback” flipping to breakout longs above the all-time high as soon as energy is confirmed intraday—an strategy that mirrors his playbook from prior expansions (“Once this factor broke out aggressively… you’re on the lookout for longs”). He emphasizes sequence over prediction: the quick he’s eyeing is counter-trend—“a pullback in an uptrend”—and the prime goal stays to place for the subsequent impulsive advance.

When Will The Crypto Market Top?

Timing-wise, he situates the prospective cycle top in This fall 2025 or Q1 2026, describing a sample wherein Bitcoin’s ultimate vertical leg into the $150,000 to $180,000 area is adopted by distribution whereas altcoins reprice increased—the archetypal altseason.

“This parabolic leg I believe could be the final leg of the bull run,” he stated, earlier than outlining notional alt targets per a late-cycle melt-up: Ethereum $5,000–$7,000, Solana $300–$500, Dogecoin $0.50–$0.70. The mechanics, as he narrates them: a final BTC push, a corrective wash, a V-shaped reclaim of the 2024 ATH “in a short time,” then This fall “mania” with breadth shifting to large-cap alts as Bitcoin distributes.

The technical scaffolding behind that view leans on ideas acquainted to discretionary price-action merchants. Weekly SFPs (failed breaks of prior extremes) set the lure line at vary edges; H12 breakers and order blocks body high-probability response zones; and fair-value gaps information the place liquidity vacuums may fill throughout a corrective flush.

On construction, he insists the weekly development stays up, so any quick is tactical and any deeper dip should resolve in a swift V-bottom and reclaim of the previous highs to maintain the cyclical script intact. His invalidation is equally clear: “If we spend any important time again beneath [the 2024 all-time high], it’s actually dangerous… I’m in all probability going to reassess my ideas.”

Macro, in Mayne’s view, now recedes to the background. The charge minimize might have helped pull ahead some September energy—“you may argue… the up transfer we’ve seen on Bitcoin… is in anticipation of this charge minimize”—however with the choice made and Powell hinting there “could possibly be one other one… there could possibly be two,” his emphasis is squarely on execution: look forward to worth to commerce into the $120,000s and sign weak spot for the clear counter-trend quick; or, absent weak spot, look forward to the breakout continuation and journey it. Either means, he’s express in regards to the north star for the approaching weeks: “Focus on Bitcoin… Any type of dip on BTC, I wish to be on the lookout for an extended… Then altseason.”

At press time, BTC traded at $117,176.