The next Bitcoin all-time high has a clear 3 year window but a brutal $1.3 billion exodus changes everything today
Bitcoin’s path again to a new all-time high and subsequent value discovery is being set by whether or not spot ETF flows flip persistent once more after a two-way begin to 2026 that examined how “sticky” institutional demand is within the post-ETF period.
CryptoSlate tracked $1.29 billion of net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs from Dec. 15 via Dec. 31, 2025. The stretch confirmed redemptions can cluster even late within the year.
The first full buying and selling week of January 2026 introduced one other risk-off impulse. Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed a mixed $681 million.
Farside Investors’ each day movement desk for that window exhibits a number of giant unfavorable periods. Those embrace -$486.1 million on Jan. 7, -$398.8 million on Jan. 8, and -$250.0 million on Jan. 9.
| Date (2026) | Spot BTC ETF web movement (USD mm) |
|---|---|
| Jan. 7 | -486.1 |
| Jan. 8 | -398.8 |
| Jan. 9 | -250.0 |
| Jan. 14 | +840.6 |
| Jan. 20 | -479.7 |
| Jan. 21 | -708.7 |
| Jan. 22 | -32.2 |
| Jan. 23 | -103.5 |
The whiplash cuts each methods, revealing how shortly the conduit can reopen and the way shortly it could possibly reclose when threat urge for food fades.
The largest single-day influx print of early 2026 arrived on Jan. 14. Inflows topped about $840 million, as Bitcoin traded above $97,000.
But the late-January tape shifted once more: 4 periods from Jan. 20 via Jan. 23 totaled roughly $1.32 billion of web outflows, led by -$708.7 million on Jan. 21. That reversal is the extra present take a look at of whether or not creations can persist past bursty, price-chasing days.
Spot ETF period changes the market’s pacing
The 2024 approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs was a key market construction change that makes these prints important, reshaping how demand and provide are expressed via a regulated automobile. Prior to that, any crypto ETF flows have been basically meaningless, as they have been primarily based on ‘paper Bitcoin’ via futures markets.
For merchants making an attempt to time the next all-time high, the obvious query is whether or not this shift removes the halving cycle.
One factor we all know for sure is that it changes the pacing and visibility of repositioning, as a result of flows largely reply to macro circumstances reasonably than impose them.
History nonetheless units the newest reference level for “value discovery.” Bitcoin hit a report high of $126,100 in October 2025, in a transfer tied to U.S. fairness good points and ETF inflows because the U.S. greenback retreated.
That October high landed in a window the place cycle highs have all the time occurred after previous halvings, as CryptoSlate projected final year.
The forward-looking query is whether or not the next break above that October 2025 ceiling arrives sooner via a renewed, multi-week ETF bid underneath regular coverage expectations exterior of the same old cycle window.
Or, flows might stay tactical sufficient to delay a new high till the next cycle waypoint. This wouldn’t be till 2029 if we observe historic timing, or late 2027 if the 2020 – 2024 cycle repeats, once we noticed one other all-time high proper earlier than the halving.
For context on how the final breakout developed, see CryptoSlate’s explainer on why BTC reached a new all-time high.
Macro liquidity and fee expectations body the setup
Near-term macro plumbing offers a measurable backdrop. In the Federal Reserve’s weekly H.4.1 launch for the week ended Jan. 21, 2026, “Securities held outright” stood at about $6.285 trillion.
In the identical launch, “Reserve Bank credit score” stood at $6.532 trillion. Some macro merchants observe it as a broader balance-sheet proxy and liquidity gauge.
Those ranges don’t map one-to-one onto Bitcoin’s value, but within the ETF period, they assist describe the regime wherein ETF creations could persist or revert, particularly round coverage conferences that may reprice threat.
| Fed H.4.1 line merchandise | Week ended | Value (USD mm) | Approx. (USD T) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Securities held outright | Jan. 21, 2026 | 6,284,577 | 6.285 | Federal Reserve (H.4.1) |
| Reserve Bank credit score | Jan. 21, 2026 | 6,532,345 | 6.532 | Federal Reserve (H.4.1) |
The next volatility waypoint can be dated. The next FOMC assembly begins Jan. 27, 2026, and ends Jan. 28, with the assertion due at 2 p.m. ET.
As of press time, the CME FedWatch device exhibits a 97% chance of no change. In sensible phrases, that units up a short-run take a look at of whether or not January’s influx day was the beginning of a longer creation streak, or whether or not late-January outflows mark a return to tactical, mean-reverting positioning.
It might additionally show to be a one-day chase that unwinds shortly if charges repricing tightens monetary circumstances.
Three paths to the next Bitcoin all-time high
With these inputs, three timing home windows emerge that merchants can observe with out treating any single driver as deterministic.
Path 1
In a “liquidity steadies and the ETF bid persists” path, the next all-time high might are available 2026 or 2027 if each day web flows shift from bursts to multi-week web creations. The market has already proven it could possibly soak up about $840 million of web inflows in a single session.
The set off, nevertheless, is persistence: repeated optimistic totals in ETF flows that don’t shortly mean-revert into multi-day outflow streaks, mixed with a calmer charges path round conferences such because the late-January FOMC window.
For cross-asset affirmation, the BTC/Nasdaq ratio is at present at 3.4, down from round 4.8 seen in October 2025, when Bitcoin hit its all-time high. BTC/Nasdaq (BTC value divided by the Nasdaq 100) acts as a relative-strength barometer for whether or not BTC is main or lagging US progress threat.
Thus, for the reason that October high, Bitcoin’s efficiency has deteriorated relative to the Nasdaq. Meaning BTC is in a weaker threat regime than it was on the peak.
Path 2
A second path retains the cycle idea intact but “re-parameterized” by TradFi rails. Under that view, the next all-time high arrives later, probably nearer to the pre-2028-halving window.
The proof for that slower path is seen in two-way valve habits. Large outflows into year-end 2025 and once more in early January 2026 have been adopted by a sharp optimistic day that may replicate tactical re-entry as value strikes reasonably than long-horizon allocation, after which one other late-January outflow streak.
Under that regime, value discovery turns into a conditional occasion. It requires each a break above the October 2025 highs and affirmation that creations are now not mean-reverting round risk-off weeks, reasonably than a single catalyst date tied to issuance.
Path 3
A 3rd path treats drawdowns as a persevering with constraint even with ETFs. Market historical past contains giant peak-to-trough declines that may reappear if a macro shock forces deleveraging throughout threat property.
PortfoliosLab lists a -76.67% most drawdown from November 2021 to November 2022. It additionally exhibits earlier cycles exceeding -80%, together with -85.3%, -83.8% and -93.07% in prior durations.
In this state of affairs, institutional rails could alter the velocity and liquidity of distribution.
However, the envelope of historic outcomes stays extensive sufficient that “next ATH timing” turns into subordinate to how deep a reset will get priced earlier than a new accumulation section begins.
Sell-side forecasts present a separate reference vary that may be tracked towards these triggers with out treating the goal as a baseline.
Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to hit $150,000 by the top of 2026. The financial institution minimize the decision to about half of its prior $300,000 goal, setting a concrete marker that will require the market to reclaim the October 2025 highs and maintain above them.
Whether this path develops is now measurable daily via ETF movement persistence and week by week via Fed balance-sheet reporting and rate-path expectations, reasonably than via halving narratives alone.
The speedy take a look at for that framework is available in the identical place the market is already watching. It is Jan. 28 at 2 p.m. ET, when the Fed releases its coverage assertion.
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