The Old Token Playbook Is Dead: Why Most Crypto Launches Failed in 2025
The previous “token playbook” is over, in keeping with 21Shares researcher Darius Moukhtarzade, who stated that launching at high FDV, low float with a governance “meme coin” doesn’t work anymore.
Moukhtarzade defined that there’s a widening “sentiment-fundamentals hole” because the core purpose behind failing token launches. On one hand, fundamentals stay sturdy, amid a rising international person base, bettering regulatory readability, rising institutional participation, and scalable infrastructure supporting long-term adoption.
On the opposite hand, market sentiment is deeply detrimental. This is evidenced in excessive worry ranges, repeated failures of latest token technology occasions (TGEs), and capital dilution attributable to an explosion in the variety of tokens.
Additionally, altering investor focus towards AI and lingering mistrust from previous extractive venture habits have additional weakened demand. This disconnect signifies that even basically sound tasks wrestle to draw liquidity and curiosity, which causes token launches to underperform regardless of favorable macro tailwinds
The New Token Playbook
To deal with this, Moukhtarzade has proposed a framework that focuses on designing tokens so customers earn extra by holding them fairly than promoting rapidly.
The framework highlights that many current fashions create a “race to the exit,” the place holders compete to promote first, and as an alternative requires aligning groups, traders, and customers so that they profit collectively as worth builds over time.
It additionally focuses on tying token worth to actual fundamentals reminiscent of income technology as an alternative of hype, distributing that worth on to holders (as an illustration, by means of income share), and treating holding as participation in the protocol’s progress, the place longer holding results in better contribution and rewards.
State of Token Launches
Token launches in 2025 have largely underperformed. Data shows that about 85% of tasks are buying and selling beneath their TGE valuation, that means practically 4 out of 5 are in the purple. Only 15.3% of tokens are in revenue.
There are a number of main execution errors which might be contributing to weak token launches, regardless of favorable trade tailwinds, in keeping with Moukhtarzade. While talking on the EthCC convention, the 21Shares researcher defined {that a} main concern is overpricing, the place tasks launch at inflated FDV with restricted circulating provide. This finally ends up making a mismatch between personal valuations and what public markets are prepared to assist.
At the identical time, founder overconfidence typically leads groups to disregard broader market situations, launching into weak or bearish environments the place demand is already constrained. Another important misstep is underestimating promote strain on the token technology occasion, as airdrop recipients, early traders, and liquidity suppliers are inclined to take income instantly. This provides to downward strain.
Many tasks additionally launch too early, earlier than attaining product-market match or sustainable income, turning the token into an alternative to actual traction fairly than a complement to it.
The submit The Old Token Playbook Is Dead: Why Most Crypto Launches Failed in 2025 appeared first on CryptoPotato.
