The Real Reason Bitcoin Is Stuck: Futures Trading Dwarfs ETFs 20-To-1

Bitcoin’s latest lack of ability to flee a decent buying and selling vary might have much less to do with spot Bitcoin ETF flows than many headlines counsel, and extra to do with the derivatives complicated nonetheless doing a lot of the heavy lifting, whilst futures exercise cools.

That’s the core argument from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), who said Bitcoin futures volumes have been “lower in half since November 22,” dropping from $123 billion in every day quantity to $63 billion.

Futures, Not ETFs, Are Holding Bitcoin In Place

The slowdown, he added, “partly explains the low volatility noticed on BTC in latest weeks.” But the larger level is relative scale: at $63 billion per day, futures nonetheless signify “practically 20 occasions the quantity of spot Bitcoin ETFs ($3.4B) and about 10 occasions spot market volumes ($6B),” based on the analyst.

In different phrases, even when ETF outflows are actual and visual, they might not be the dominant marginal drive setting the tone. “Many proceed to level to ETFs, which have skilled important outflows in latest weeks,” Darkfost wrote. “While these outflows do contribute to promoting stress, futures markets clearly stay the dominant drive in total volumes.”

Darkfost pointed to internet taker quantity, a derivatives metric used to deduce whether or not aggressive shopping for or promoting is dominating, as a cleaner learn on why value has struggled to development. He framed it in conditional phrases based mostly on prior market conduct: “Each time internet taker quantity has turned adverse, Bitcoin has entered a corrective section. When this indicator strikes into adverse territory, promoting quantity dominates.”

In his telling, the market has been residing with that bias for months. Since July, internet taker quantity has “usually remained adverse,” he stated, with one notable interruption: “A noticeable slowdown occurred in early October, permitting Bitcoin to set a brand new all time high, however promoting stress shortly regained management. Today, selling volumes proceed to dominate and have stored Bitcoin trapped in a spread for a few month.”

There is, nonetheless, a tentative enchancment in the identical dataset. Darkfost stated futures-driven promoting stress has declined since early November, with internet taker quantity bettering from round -$489 million to -$93 million. He described that as “a constructive sign,” however not but sufficient to vary the regime. “Liquidity stays weak,” he wrote, including that ETF and spot volumes are “nonetheless too restricted to permit BTC to interrupt out of its present consolidation section.”

Demand Is Key

In a separate X post, CryptoQuant’s Head of Research Julio Moreno added a broader framing that shifts consideration away from chart-based cycle narratives and towards demand dynamics. “Most are specializing in value efficiency to outline a cycle, when it’s demand what they need to be seeking to,” Moreno wrote. “Bitcoin demand is contracting on month-to-month phrases and slowing down considerably on an annual foundation (and about to get into adverse territory).”

Alongside the futures-driven rationalization for Bitcoin’s stall, the promoting stress from long-term holders (LTHs) emerged in latest weeks as the principle driver for Bitcoin lagging efficiency towards the inventory market and gold. As reported yesterday, the long-term holder promoting appeared to have stopped, based on a number of on-chain commentators, with round 10,700 BTC transitioning into long run held cash.

In his newest post, main Glassnode analyst CryptoVizArt argued the change is extra about tempo than route. “LTHs didn’t cease promoting,” the analyst wrote, claiming LTHs “are nonetheless spending ~7.3k BTC/day (7D SMA) and nonetheless realizing <$200M/day in revenue. What modified is the speed, not the conduct. This is a cooldown after months of heavy distribution, not a flip to pure accumulation.”

Darkfost didn’t dispute that LTHs may be persistent sellers, however he emphasised a unique lens. “LTHs by no means actually cease promoting in actuality, however after we have a look at provide change, it offers a unique image,” he wrote. “It seems that their distribution has come to an finish for now, that means the quantity of BTC maturing and transitioning into LTH standing equals the BTC being bought by LTHs (STH shopping for).”

At press time, BTC traded at $87,972.