The Saylor Discount: Why Bitcoin Trading Below Strategy’s Realized Price is a Gift for Late-Cycle Allocators

Bitcoin continues to battle beneath the $65,000 degree as persistent promoting strain weighs on market sentiment. Price motion has remained fragile in latest weeks, with volatility elevated and merchants exhibiting restricted conviction amid tightening liquidity circumstances and broader macro uncertainty. While intermittent rebounds have occurred, they’ve to date failed to determine sustained upside momentum, leaving Bitcoin locked in a cautious consolidation part beneath a key psychological threshold.

A latest CryptoQuant report highlights a notable structural growth involving StrategyB, previously often known as MicroStrategy. It has now been greater than six years for the reason that firm started its Bitcoin accumulation technique, concentrating on roughly 5% of the asset’s whole provide. The initiative, pushed by CEO Michael Saylor — one in every of Bitcoin’s most vocal long-term advocates — displays a conviction that BTC may ultimately surpass the $1 million mark over time.

To pursue this goal, StrategyB has executed what many contemplate the biggest dollar-cost averaging program in Bitcoin’s historical past, notably with out promoting any BTC since inception. Annual investment figures illustrate the dimensions of this effort: $1.1 billion in 2020, $2.57 billion in 2021, $276 million in 2022, $1.9 billion in 2023, $21.9 billion in 2024, $22.4 billion in 2025, and $4.1 billion to date in 2026.

StrategyB’s Aggressive Bitcoin Accumulation And Market Implications

According to the report, 2025 marked a file 12 months for StrategyB by way of capital deployed, with greater than $22.4 billion invested into Bitcoin accumulation. The knowledge means that 2026 is at present following a comparable trajectory. If this tempo continues, the agency may surpass final 12 months’s file, additional consolidating its place as one of many largest institutional holders of BTC.

At current, Bitcoin is buying and selling beneath StrategyB’s estimated realized value, which sits close to $76,000. This metric displays the corporate’s common acquisition price throughout its holdings. StrategyB reportedly holds roughly 717,131 BTC, equal to round 3.4% of Bitcoin’s circulating provide. Such focus highlights the dimensions of institutional participation now embedded out there construction.

However, the interpretation of this knowledge requires warning. Trading beneath a massive holder’s realized value doesn’t mechanically indicate undervaluation; realized value is a cost-basis metric, not a valuation mannequin. Market circumstances, liquidity flows, and macroeconomic variables stay dominant drivers of value path.

Still, the broader takeaway is notable: even main institutional individuals usually depend on comparatively easy accumulation methods resembling dollar-cost averaging. Whether that strategy proves optimum in present circumstances depends upon particular person threat tolerance, time horizon, and broader market context.

Weekly Breakdown Below Key Moving Averages Signals Structural Weakness

Bitcoin’s weekly construction has deteriorated materially over the previous a number of periods. After failing to maintain acceptance above the $90,000–$100,000 area, value rolled over and has now retraced towards the mid-$60,000 space. The newest weekly shut close to $66,000 locations BTC decisively beneath the 50-week and 100-week transferring averages, each of that are starting to slope downward.

This shift in positioning is technically important. During the 2024–2025 advance, these transferring averages acted as dynamic help, constantly absorbing pullbacks and reinforcing pattern continuation. Their loss now converts them into overhead resistance, limiting upside until reclaimed with robust quantity affirmation.

The 200-week transferring common, at present monitoring close to the mid-$50,000 zone, stays the final main structural help on this timeframe. Historically, sustained closes beneath the 50-week common following a cycle peak have signaled extended corrective phases reasonably than shallow consolidations.

Volume has expanded through the latest breakdown, suggesting distribution reasonably than easy low-liquidity drift. The sharp selloff from the $90,000 area to sub-$70,000 ranges displays decisive provide getting into the market.

For bulls to regain management, BTC would want to reclaim the $75,000–$80,000 vary and reestablish larger weekly highs. Until then, the weekly pattern favors warning, with momentum tilted towards continued consolidation or additional draw back exploration.

Featured picture from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com