The Verdict Is In For Bitcoin: Majority Of Investors Say BTC Price Is Headed Lower, Here Are The Numbers
Across prediction markets, on-chain dashboards, and sentiment trackers, a transparent majority of Bitcoin traders have positioned themselves for additional draw back.
Although Bitcoin has since recovered above $60,000, the latest crash under the extent over the weekend has led many crypto merchants to consider that there’s going to be one other crash to the ultimate backside. According to crypto analyst Winter Soldier, 64% of orders on prediction markets are actually betting on BTC dropping under $50,000 this 12 months.
64% Of Orders Are Betting Bitcoin Breaks Below $50,000
Prediction market Polymarket is at present pricing a 64% likelihood that Bitcoin hits $55,000 or decrease earlier than the tip of 2026. This outlook was additionally famous in a bearish name by crypto analyst Winter Soldier, who famous that 65% of orders on prediction markets are actually positioned for BTC to fall under $50,000 earlier than the tip of the 12 months.
However, the analyst also compared the present setup with the earlier cycle, when many merchants believed $28,000 would maintain as the ultimate low. Bitcoin later fell to $19,000, then to $15,000, earlier than the market lastly reached the extent of worry wanted for a real reversal. That is why the analyst believes a crash to the $35,000 to $38,000 vary from the present value motion can’t be dominated out.
Bitcoin dropped about 78% within the final bear cycle earlier than starting its subsequent main growth. This cycle could possibly be shallower due to ETFs and institutional participation, however nonetheless, $50,000 shouldn’t be assumed robotically as the ground just because everyone seems to be watching it.
The Chart Says BTC Is Cheap, But Not Safe Yet
The rainbow chart added to the evaluation by Winter Soldier reveals Bitcoin now sitting within the “BUY!” band, and the worth has spent 24 days in that band in comparison with a median of 18 days. That makes Bitcoin look discounted relative to its long-term logarithmic pattern.
The chart additionally reveals solely a 5.5% drop to the decrease band and a 27.2% transfer to the higher band, which is one other signal that BTC is nearer to the decrease finish of the historic worth vary than the higher finish.
However, the issue for bulls is that the worth construction has not yet confirmed a reversal. Bitcoin has printed heavy pink candles, decrease highs, and decrease lows, and promote quantity has continued into the center of the week. Everywhere you look, there’s supply and no demand. If the Bitcoin value bounces again into the vary between $65,000 and $66,000, it’s almost certainly simply gathering momentum to push decrease, and this is a bull trap, not a purchase sign.
The verdict is a part of many predictions from a bearish camp that Bitcoin should still have yet one more painful leg to $50,000 earlier than a sturdy backside is fashioned. Interestingly, some analysts are calling for a further bottom below $50,000.
