This Analyst Called The Bitcoin Price Crash 4 Months Ago, But There’s More
Months in the past, a outstanding crypto analyst outlined a exact window the place the Bitcoin price could enter a violent downside phase. At the time, the projection appeared excessive. Now, with value conduct starting to align with that roadmap, the analyst has launched a much more expansive replace — one which not solely reinforces the crash call but in addition maps what comes earlier than and after the following main pivot.
Bitcoin Price Multi-Cycle Model Signals A Structural Reset
In the replace shared on X, the analyst integrates yearly, month-to-month, and weekly cycles to outline each the potential magnitude of decline and the timing of the following pivot. On the yearly timeframe, Bitcoin sits in what he labels an excessive threat zone forward of a projected pivot round February 2. The construction is left-translated with distributive value motion — a formation linked to late-cycle weakness.
He compares the present setup to a earlier harmonic section the place Bitcoin dropped roughly 50% from its all-time high earlier than reaching the identical pivot window. That decline produced a rebound of about 40% however failed to achieve a brand new all-time high, suggesting the February pivot might convey aid relatively than growth. He additionally identifies a macro threat window from April to September 2026.
On the month-to-month cycle, the analyst marks a decisive pivot round December 22. Historical drawdowns in related harmonics have been 56%, 77%, and 34%, relying on the cycle context. The 77% drop occurred throughout a bear market, whereas the 34% retracement shaped a mid-bull cycle. Upside rebounds ranged between 140% and 375%, with a later 158% growth, displaying that month-to-month harmonics usually host the sharpest value dislocations.
On the weekly timeframe, a nearer-term pivot seems round November 19. Past pullbacks ranged from 20% to 34%, adopted by upside expansions of 99%, 96%, 95%, 127%, and 69%, offering the tactical alerts merchants might depend on for short-term changes inside the broader pattern.
What’s More: Refined Crash Targets And The Bottom Window
Beyond confirming the unique crash name, the analyst refines the draw back roadmap by synchronizing all three cycles. When harmonics align, volatility and pivot significance improve. While the complete drawdown ranges 20%–77%, he narrows the probably decline to 34%–55% from the all-time high, noting deeper bear-market conditions aren’t but confirmed.
The November weekly pivot seems too early for a macro bottom, with higher-timeframe pressure probably pushing the true pivot into January. A late-November dead-cat bounce is feasible earlier than additional draw back. Key ranges: $90,000 (~30% drop) for November, $72,000 (~43% under the high) for January, with additional help at $45,000 and $28,000 if promoting intensifies.
The analyst remains cautious, noting the final comparable yearly harmonic rallied 40% with out surpassing the all-time high, with related limits anticipated earlier than the May–September 2026 threat window. However, whereas his four-month-old crash name held, he believes Bitcoin’s path is way from over—traders ought to put together for additional draw back and a multi-stage restoration shaping the following macro cycle.
