Tom Lee Says September Crash Fear Could Trigger a Stock Rally, Push Bitcoin 2x

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is treating September’s crash concern as a contrarian sign. He says a market this braced for weak spot might rally as a substitute, carrying Bitcoin (BTC) towards $150,000.

Lee has not dropped his correction name. He has moved it, pointing to the September 15 Federal Reserve (Fed) assembly because the second that decides path.

The September Fear Lee Is Betting Against

The concern has an proof base, as a result of throughout 10 US midterm election years since 1986, the common inventory market low landed on September 2.

Those lows adopted a median slide of 16.77% from the prior high. That historical past is what makes the present dangerous September pattern value watching.

This yr provides a hawkish twist. Three Fed presidents voted for a price hike in July, not a reduce. Chair Kevin Warsh then used his first Jackson Hole speech to place inflation first. Six-month PCE inflation was operating at 4.1%.

Bonds inform the identical story, with the 30-year Treasury yield has held above 5%, nicely away from an efficient fed funds price close to 3.63%.

“I’m really now considering due to all this mounting concern, the market would possibly shock us to the upside,” Lee said, suggesting he sees a crowd leaning too far a technique.

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Why September 15 Decides Direction

Lee spent August anticipating these worries to converge and value equities roughly 10%. Weak seasonality, hike speak and the AI information middle backlash all pointed the identical manner.

His base case now could be that policymakers neither hike nor reduce.

“If the Fed doesn’t reduce, doesn’t hike, which is our base case, I feel really the markets might rally very strongly,” he added in a CNBC interview.

Should the pullback slip into October, Lee thinks it might begin above 8,000 on the S&P 500. The low would possibly land close to 7,300.

Bitcoin Could Reach $150,000, Tom Lee Says

Bitcoin’s present worth stage sits close to $78,875, up solely 0.3% over 24 hours. BTC nonetheless trades about 37% under its document from October 2025.

Lee calls the previous yr a shallow crypto winter attributable to compelled promoting, not damaged fundamentals. Very few traders nonetheless maintain crypto, he argues.

He counts 4 catalysts.

• Crypto led all macro property within the third quarter
• The four-year crypto cycle ends subsequent month
• Korean merchants are rotating again from AI shares
• The CLARITY Act, a US market construction invoice setting which regulator oversees digital property, might go this yr

Rising institutional crypto ETF inflows reinforce his view that bigger consumers are positioning for a sturdy fourth quarter.

Lee nonetheless treats $150,000 as attainable for Bitcoin, alongside an S&P 500 above 8,200. For Bitcoin, that constitutes a 1.9 occasions acquire, or about 2x. Both relaxation on earnings estimates that preserve climbing.

Fresh jobs and inflation prints land earlier than the assembly. Lee says weak readings on each would cease merchants pricing a hike in any respect.

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